Denis Yevseyev vs Saba Purtseladze: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Purtseladze's superior recent break point stats and lighter workload give him a slight edge on clay.
- Purtseladze has a 50% win rate on clay in last 10 matches (5-5), while Yevseyev is 5-7 (41.7%) in last 12 clay matches.
- Purtseladze holds a 64.5% break point save rate in last 15 overall matches vs Yevseyev's 48.8%.
- Purtseladze won 51.9% of break points converted in last 15 matches, Yevseyev 45%.
- Yevseyev played a 3-setter yesterday (7-6, 4-6, 7-5), Purtseladze a straight-set win (6-1, 6-4), giving Purtseladze a freshness edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSaba PurtseladzeEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches average over 23 games, and competitive break point stats point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Yevseyev's last 15 clay matches average 23.2 games per match (278 games / 12 matches).
- Purtseladze's last 10 clay matches average 24.8 games per match (248 games / 10 matches).
- Both players have high break point save rates (Purtseladze 64.5%, Yevseyev 48.8%) and convert rates (Purtseladze 51.9%, Yevseyev 45%), suggesting competitive games.
- Yevseyev's recent matches often go to three sets (5 of last 12 clay matches went the distance).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Neither player dominates on serve, leading to extended first sets; over 9.5 games is likely.
- Yevseyev's last 15 clay matches: 6 of 12 first sets had 10+ games.
- Purtseladze's last 10 clay matches: 5 of 10 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 60-71% on clay recently, not dominant enough for quick sets.
- Yevseyev's last match first set went to a tiebreak (7-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent clay matches often reach 10+ games, supporting over 9.5.
- Yevseyev's last 15 clay matches: 7 of 12 second sets had 10+ games.
- Purtseladze's last 10 clay matches: 6 of 10 second sets had 10+ games.
- Second-set fatigue could lead to more breaks, but both have decent break point save rates, extending games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Purtseladze's slightly better first-set record and fresher legs give him a marginal edge in set 1.
- Purtseladze has a 87% career first-set win conversion rate, Yevseyev 83%.
- In last 15 matches, Purtseladze won 7 of 15 first sets (46.7%), Yevseyev 6 of 15 (40%).
- Purtseladze's last match was a quick 6-1, 6-4 win; Yevseyev's was a grueling 3-setter, potentially affecting early sharpness.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSaba PurtseladzeEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players showing around 40% three-set rate on clay recently, a deciding set is a coin flip.
- Yevseyev's last 15 clay matches: 5 of 12 went to three sets (41.7%).
- Purtseladze's last 10 clay matches: 4 of 10 went to three sets (40%).
- Both players have similar deciding set win rates (Yevseyev 52% career, Purtseladze 56% career).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Purtseladze's high ace count on clay (7.8 per match) makes over 7.5 total aces very likely.
- Purtseladze averages 7.8 aces per match on clay in last 10 matches.
- Yevseyev averages only 1.3 aces per match on clay in last 12 matches.
- Combined, their recent clay ace averages sum to 9.1 per match.
- Purtseladze's high ace rate (7.8) alone nearly covers the over.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Purtseladze's extremely high double fault rate on clay (7.8 per match) makes over 7.5 total double faults likely.
- Purtseladze averages 7.8 double faults per match on clay in last 10 matches.
- Yevseyev averages 0.8 double faults per match on clay in last 12 matches.
- Combined, their recent clay double fault averages sum to 8.6 per match.
- Purtseladze's high double fault rate (7.8) alone nearly covers the over.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Denis Yevseyev #439Kazakhstan2Saba Purtseladze #659Georgia0

Player Profiles

Denis Yevseyev

Saba Purtseladze

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Saba Purtseladze

Denis Yevseyev 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Denis Yevseyev

Saba Purtseladze

Stat Battle