PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Joel Schwaerzler #182Austria2Andrea Guerrieri #213Italy0

Sets 7-6 · 6-1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoel Schwaerzler · 31 places

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

A 20-year-old Austrian left-hander whose ATP bio identifies clay as his favourite surface. TennisExplorer lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 169.

Current ranking: #182
Peak ranking: #169
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 213 on 20 July 2026. He is listed as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #213 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrea Guerrieri's superior return game and hard-court experience give him the edge over Joel Schwaerzler in a match likely to go over 21.5 games and three sets.

Back Guerrieri to win at 1.90 and consider the 2-1 correct score at 4.50, while avoiding Schwaerzler in straight sets.

Context

Guerrieri's hard-court return points won in last 4 matches: 42.3% (142/336).
- Schwaerzler's hard-court return points won in last 4 matches: 32.4% (103/318).
- Guerrieri's career return points won is 44%, indicating a consistent return skill.
Schwaerzler's last-15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Guerrieri's last-15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7% win rate).
- Both have 4-0 hard-court records in this window, but Guerrieri's wins include higher-ranked opponents (e.g., #166 Glinka).
Schwaerzler's hard-court aces per match: 7.8 (31 in 4 matches).
- Guerrieri's hard-court return points won: 42.3%, indicating he can get serves back in play.
- Schwaerzler's first-serve points won on hard: 79.6%, but Guerrieri's break point save rate on hard is 71.9%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Guerrieri's superior return game on hard courts and stronger overall recent form give him a clear edge, though Schwaerzler's perfect hard-court record in this window keeps it competitive.
- Guerrieri is 4-0 on hard in last 15, winning 57% of games and 53% of total points.
- Schwaerzler is also 4-0 on hard in last 15, but his overall last-15 record is 7-8 (46.7%) vs Guerrieri's 10-5 (66.7%).
- Guerrieri's return points won on hard (42.3%) significantly exceeds Schwaerzler's (32.4%).
- Career hard-court win totals: Guerrieri 74, Schwaerzler 12.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent hard-court first sets for both players have consistently exceeded 9.5 games, indicating a competitive start.
- Schwaerzler's last 4 hard-court first sets: 10, 13, 13, 9 games.
- Guerrieri's last 4 hard-court first sets: 12, 10, 10, 7 games.
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates (88%+), suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown resilience on hard courts with multiple three-setters, indicating a likely close match that surpasses 21.5 games.
- Schwaerzler's last 4 hard-court matches averaged 26.5 games; Guerrieri's averaged 25.0.
- Both players have gone to three sets in 3 of their last 4 hard-court matches.
- Schwaerzler's hard-court games won% (54.7%) and Guerrieri's (57%) suggest tight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent hard-court matches have often been competitive, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Schwaerzler's last 4 hard-court second sets: 13, 10, 9, 7 games.
- Guerrieri's last 4 hard-court second sets: 9, 12, 10, 8 games.
- Both players have shown ability to extend sets even after losing the first.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players on this surface strongly supports a match going over 2.5 sets.
- 3 of Schwaerzler's last 4 hard-court matches went to three sets.
- 3 of Guerrieri's last 4 hard-court matches went to three sets.
- Both have identical career deciding-set win rates (58%).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Guerrieri's return strength should pressure Schwaerzler's serve early, making him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Guerrieri has won 8 of 11 sets on hard in last 15; Schwaerzler 8 of 10.
- Guerrieri's first-set win conversion career is 91%, Schwaerzler's 88%.
- In last 15 overall, Guerrieri's return points won (42.5%) is much higher than Schwaerzler's (33.9%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrea GuerrieriEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and their combined average exceeds the 5.5 line.
- Schwaerzler averages 2.5 double faults per hard-court match in last 15.
- Guerrieri averages 3.8 double faults per hard-court match in last 15.
- Combined average of 6.3 double faults per match on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schwaerzler's high ace rate on hard courts alone nearly covers the line, and Guerrieri adds a few, making over 7.5 probable.
- Schwaerzler averages 7.8 aces per hard-court match in last 15.
- Guerrieri averages 4.3 aces per hard-court match in last 15.
- Combined average of 12.1 aces per match on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Schwaerzler's recent hard-court matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and with both players' competitive sets, at least one tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility.
- Schwaerzler has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches.
- Guerrieri has not played a tiebreak in his last 4 hard-court matches.
- Schwaerzler's career tiebreak win rate is 57%, Guerrieri's 46%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Schwaerzler's recent hard-court matches rarely end in straight sets, making this outcome unlikely despite his solid form.

Previous match context available

Joel Schwaerzler

7W 8L

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#359Mathys Erhard 7-6(4) 6-4#402Ilya Ivashka

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(4)#690Aziz Dougaz

6-3 6-1—Jiri Cizek

6-2 6-3#249Martin Krumich

6-3 6-4#317Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-2#132Jurij Rodionov

6-4 7-6(4)#88Lorenzo Sonego

3-6 6-3 7-5#294Federico Bondioli

7-6(3) 6-4#133Christopher O'Connell

6-4 2-6 6-4#257Matej Dodig

6-1 2-6 7-6(2)#206Pol Martin Tiffon

6-3 3-6 6-3#321Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-4#102Roman Safiullin

6-1 7-5#202Clement Chidekh

Andrea Guerrieri

10W 5L

0-6 6-3 6-4#166Daniil Glinka 4-6 7-5 6-2#265Michele Ribecai

6-4 4-6 6-2#475Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#407Olle Wallin

6-4 6-4#174Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 7-6(5)#164Luca Nardi

6-1 6-2#141Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-4#342Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(9) 6-4#121Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 7-5 6-2#292David Goffin

6-1 6-4#287Charles Broom

6-2 6-2#303Filippo Romano

7-6(7) 6-4#357Francesco Forti

7-6(5) 7-5#567Alexander Vasilev

6-3 3-6 6-4#111Dalibor Svrcina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoel SchwaerzlerSchwaerzler

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Andrea GuerrieriGuerrieriAG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In61.1%+3.3pp64.4%

1st Serve Won71.8%+4.9pp66.9%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+3.8pp48.8%

Aces / Match4.7+2.52.2

Double Faults / Match2.70.7 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.9%+8.6pp42.5%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted37.2%+1.3pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved58.6%—58.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+1.6pp51.1%

Serve · 4–1

61.1%1st Serve In+3.3pp64.4%

71.8%1st Serve Won+4.9pp66.9%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp48.8%

4.7Aces / Match+2.52.2

2.7Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

33.9%Return Pts Won+8.6pp42.5%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

37.2%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp38.5%

58.6%Break Pts Saved—58.9%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+1.6pp51.1%

Joel Schwaerzler #182Austria2Andrea Guerrieri #213Italy0

Player Profiles

Joel Schwaerzler

Andrea Guerrieri

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri

Andrea Guerrieri 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Joel Schwaerzler 2-0 @ 2.75

Joel Schwaerzler

Andrea Guerrieri

Stat Battle