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Predictions graded

Elina Svitolina #9Ukraine2Amanda Anisimova #10United States0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Sun 9 Aug 2026, 01:45 Predictions gradedFourth RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElina Svitolina · 1 places

Elina Svitolina

Ukraine

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 3 on September 11, 2017. The ITF lists grass as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #9
Peak ranking: #3 · 2017
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Amanda Anisimova

United States

Anisimova is a 24-year-old American right-hander who reached career-high No. 3 in January 2026. Her prior Rome wrist withdrawal was in May 2026 and is not treated as a current fitness alert.

Current ranking: #10
Peak ranking: #3 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Svitolina holds a 4-1 H2H edge and superior return numbers, but Anisimova's power and recent hard-court form make this a tight contest.

The best betting value lies in Anisimova +1.5 games and over 21.5 total games, with a three-set match likely.

Context

Svitolina defeated Bouzas 6-7(5), 7-6(4), 6-4 on August 5, a match lasting 2 hours and 37 minutes.
- Her last four hard-court matches have averaged 21.5 games, with two going to a deciding set.
- Anisimova's previous match was also three sets, but she had an extra day of rest and a shorter duration (2h 12m).
Svitolina leads the H2H 4-1, with a 3-1 record on hard courts.
- In their last meeting (August 2025, hard court), Svitolina won 6-4, 6-1.
- Anisimova's only win came in 2020, and she has lost the last three encounters.
Anisimova is 5-2 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, with a 56.9% games-won rate.
- She has covered a +1.5 game handicap in six of those seven matches.
- Her only hard-court losses in this window came to top-15 opponents Bencic and Mboko.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Svitolina's superior H2H record and slightly better recent return numbers give her a moderate edge on hard court.
- Svitolina leads H2H 4-1, including a 6-4 6-1 win in their most recent meeting (Aug 2025, hard court).
- Svitolina's last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), with 56.7% games won; Anisimova: 10-5 (66.7%), 56.7% games won.
- On hard courts in last 15, Svitolina is 3-1 (75%) with 55.4% games won; Anisimova is 5-2 (71.4%) with 56.9% games won.
- Svitolina's return points won in last 15 overall: 49.3% vs Anisimova's 47.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElina SvitolinaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing competitive recent form and a tendency for longer matches, over 20.5 games is likely.
- Svitolina's last 4 hard-court matches averaged 21.5 games; Anisimova's last 7 hard-court matches averaged 20.6 games.
- Both players have a high three-set rate: Svitolina 4 of last 15 (27%), Anisimova 6 of last 15 (40%).
- Svitolina's average match duration in last 15 is 101.9 min; Anisimova's is 92.3 min, indicating competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Anisimova's competitive recent form on hard courts suggests she will keep the match close, covering the +2.5 game handicap.
- Anisimova's last 7 hard-court matches: avg game differential +0.6; Svitolina's last 4: +1.5.
- Anisimova covered +2.5 in 6 of her last 7 hard-court matches.
- Svitolina's recent wins have been tight: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 vs Bouzas; 7-6, 6-4 vs Kudermetova.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAmanda Anisimova +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court first sets for both players often exceed 9.5 games, suggesting a competitive start.
- Svitolina's last 4 hard-court first sets: 6-1, 6-7, 3-6, 7-6 (avg 10.5 games).
- Anisimova's last 7 hard-court first sets: 3-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, 4-6, 6-1, 5-7 (avg 9.4 games).
- Both players have strong serve/return balance, leading to tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Svitolina's strong first-set record and recent hard-court starts suggest a slight advantage in the opener.
- Svitolina won the first set in 3 of her last 4 hard-court matches; Anisimova lost the first set in 3 of her last 7 hard-court matches.
- Svitolina's career first-set win conversion is 90% vs Anisimova's 84%.
- In their 2025 hard-court meeting, Svitolina won the first set 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonElina SvitolinaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a propensity for three-set matches recently, making over 2.5 sets a solid bet.
- Combined three-set rate in last 15: Svitolina 27%, Anisimova 40%.
- Svitolina's last hard-court match went three sets; Anisimova's last hard-court match went three sets.
- H2H on hard: 2 of 4 matches went three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double fault rates, pushing the combined total over 7.5 in most matches.
- Svitolina averages 3.8 double faults per match in last 15; Anisimova averages 4.0.
- On hard courts, Svitolina averages 6.8 double faults (small sample), Anisimova 3.1.
- Combined average double faults: 7.8 in last 15 overall.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages hover around 6.8, making over 6.5 a marginal but supported pick.
- Svitolina averages 3.2 aces per match in last 15; Anisimova averages 3.6.
- On hard courts, Svitolina averages 3.0 aces, Anisimova 2.0 in last 15 surface-specific.
- Combined average aces per match: 6.8 in last 15 overall.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Elina Svitolina has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 15 matches where Elina Svitolina was predicted to win, she fulfilled the prediction 12 times. The average estimated probability in those wins was 70.8%, while in the three losses it was slightly lower at 67%. The current prediction of 58% is within her historical range of 55% to 92%.

Recent evidence for Elina Svitolina15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Washington

#28Alexandra Eala2-0#10Elina Svitolina

BetBugsElina Svitolina to win·58%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

WTA Washington

#28Alexandra Eala2-0#10Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina to win

58%probability

Alexandra Eala won

Missed

31 Jul·WTA Washington

#108Polina Kudermetova0-2#10Elina Svitolina

BetBugsElina Svitolina to win·72%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#108Polina Kudermetova0-2#10Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina to win

72%probability

Elina Svitolina won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#8Elina Svitolina0-2#78Daria Snigur

BetBugsElina Svitolina to win·78%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#8Elina Svitolina0-2#78Daria Snigur

Elina Svitolina to win

78%probability

Daria Snigur won

Missed

23 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#37Liudmila Samsonova1-2#8Elina Svitolina

BetBugsElina Svitolina to win·72%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#37Liudmila Samsonova1-2#8Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina to win

72%probability

Elina Svitolina won

Matched

19 Jun·WTA Berlin

#8Elina Svitolina0-2#35Alexandra Eala

BetBugsElina Svitolina to win·65%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

WTA Berlin

#8Elina Svitolina0-2#35Alexandra Eala

Elina Svitolina to win

65%probability

Alexandra Eala won

Missed

Head-to-Head

4-1 (5 meetings)

W6-4 6-1Elina Svitolina#9vAmanda Anisimova#10Aug 3, 2025

W6-4 6-3Elina Svitolina#9vAmanda Anisimova#10Sep 29, 2021

W2-6 6-3 6-4Elina Svitolina#9vAmanda Anisimova#10May 12, 2021

L6-3 6-3Elina Svitolina#9vAmanda Anisimova#10Feb 24, 2020

W6-4 6-4Elina Svitolina#9vAmanda Anisimova#10Aug 17, 2018

Elina Svitolina dominates (5 meetings)5 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elina Svitolina

11W 4L

6-1 6-1#27Anastasia Potapova

6-7(5) 7-6(4) 6-4#63Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-3 6-4#20Alexandra Eala

7-6(4) 6-4#103Polina Kudermetova

7-5 6-2#43Daria Snigur

3-6 6-3 6-2#55Liudmila Samsonova

6-3 6-4#20Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-2#85Eva Lys

6-1 4-1 ret.#21Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 2-6 6-2#11Marta Kostyuk

4-6 6-4 6-0#14Belinda Bencic

6-2 6-3#47Tamara Korpatsch

6-0 6-4#94Kaitlin Quevedo

3-6 6-1 7-6(3)#78Anna Bondar

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

Amanda Anisimova

10W 5L

3-6 6-0 6-4#42Nikola Bartunkova

3-6 6-2 6-3#23Madison Keys

6-2 4-6 7-6(3)#118Sofia Kenin

6-3 6-2#223Lina Gjorcheska

6-2 3-6 6-3#16Iva Jovic

6-1 6-3#88Laura Siegemund

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#64Diane Parry

6-0 ret.#113Julia Grabher

6-3 6-1#173Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

6-2 6-2#14Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-2#65Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-1 5-7 6-4#95Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 6-1#12Victoria Mboko

6-1 6-1#49Emma Raducanu

5-7 6-1 6-0#108Anna Blinkova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ESElina SvitolinaSvitolina

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Amanda AnisimovaAnisimovaAA

Amanda Anisimova carries the stronger recent form — Elina Svitolina's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.1%+5.7pp65.8%

1st Serve Won64.6%+0.8pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won44.6%+3.5pp48.1%

Aces / Match3.2+0.43.6

Double Faults / Match3.8—4.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.3%+2.0pp47.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted53.1%+4.4pp57.5%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+15.7pp48.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.1%—53.5%

Shot making · 3–0Limited data · 6 vs 6

Winners / Match6/15 · 6/1526.2+3.522.7

Unforced Errors / Match6/15 · 6/1527.04.5 fewer31.5

Net Pts Won6/15 · 6/1563.0%+2.7pp60.3%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

60.1%1st Serve In+5.7pp65.8%

64.6%1st Serve Won+0.8pp65.4%

44.6%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp48.1%

3.2Aces / Match+0.43.6

3.8Double Faults / Match—4.0

Return · 1–0

49.3%Return Pts Won+2.0pp47.3%

Pressure · 1–1

53.1%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp57.5%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+15.7pp48.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.1%Total Pts Won—53.5%

Shot making · 3–0Limited data · 6 vs 6

26.2Winners6/15 · 6/15+3.522.7

27.0Unforced Errors6/15 · 6/154.5 fewer31.5

63.0%Net Pts Won6/15 · 6/15+2.7pp60.3%

Elina Svitolina #9Ukraine2Amanda Anisimova #10United States0

Player Profiles

Elina Svitolina

Amanda Anisimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Amanda Anisimova +1.5

Elina Svitolina

Elina Svitolina 2-1

Elina Svitolina

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Elina Svitolina has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Elina Svitolina

Amanda Anisimova

Stat Battle