GermanyHagen - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Tom Gentzsch #185Germany2Zsombor Piros #123Hungary0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Sat 8 Aug 2026, 14:10 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZsombor Piros · 62 places

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 185 on August 3, 2026. Two of his three Challenger finals have come on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Zsombor Piros

Hungary

Born on 13 October 1999, Piros reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 106 on 4 March 2024. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #123
Peak ranking: #106 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 22:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Zsombor Piros' dominant clay form (14-1) and superior serve metrics make him the favorite, but Tom Gentzsch's tendency for three-set battles and tiebreaks suggests a competitive match.

Best betting angles include Gentzsch +3.5 games and over 9.5 games in the first set.

Context

Piros' last 15 overall record is 14-1, all on clay, with 84.8% sets won and 63% games won.
- He has won his last three matches in straight sets at this tournament, dropping only 16 games total.
- His second-serve points won (62.9%) and break-point save rate (67.2%) are elite in this window.
11 of Gentzsch's last 15 matches went to a deciding set, including two of his three wins this week.
- He has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%).
- His average match duration in this window is 107.8 minutes, reflecting long battles.
The H2H match was decided by a single break in the third set, with Gentzsch saving 64% of break points.
- Gentzsch served 8 aces and won 78% of first-serve points in that match.
- Piros converted only 27% of break points, well below his recent 46.4% rate.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Zsombor Piros

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Piros has won the first set in 13 of his last 15 matches (86.7%), including all three this tournament, while Gentzsch has lost the first set in his last two matches against higher-ranked opponents.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Piros' dominant recent clay form (14-1) and superior serve/return metrics, especially on second serve and break point saving, give him a clear edge over Gentzsch, despite Gentzsch's H2H win earlier this year.
- Piros has a 93.3% win rate in last 15 matches (14-1), all on clay, with 84.8% sets won and 63% games won.
- Gentzsch has a 71.4% win rate in last 14 clay matches (10-4), with 63.9% sets won and 54.1% games won.
- Piros holds a 67.2% break point save rate vs Gentzsch's 55.4% in the last 15 matches.
- Piros' second serve points won (62.9%) far exceeds Gentzsch's (44.9%) in the recent window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZsombor PirosEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's resilience in close matches (80% cover rate for +3.5 games) and Piros' tendency for tight wins against top-200 players suggest Gentzsch will keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Gentzsch has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%), including all three matches this tournament.
- Piros has won by more than 3.5 games in only 6 of his last 15 matches (40%), often winning by narrower margins against stronger opponents.
- Their H2H match was decided by a single break in the third set, with Gentzsch winning by 2 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTom Gentzsch +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's high frequency of three-set matches (11/15) and the competitive nature of their previous H2H suggest this match is likely to exceed 21.5 games, even if Piros wins in straight sets.
- Gentzsch's last 15 matches average 24.9 games per match (373 total games / 15 matches).
- Piros' last 15 matches average 19.8 games per match, but his matches against top-200 opponents often exceed 21.5 games.
- Their only H2H match went to 3 sets with 32 total games (6-4, 6-7, 7-5).
- Gentzsch has played 11 three-set matches in his last 15, indicating a tendency for longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Gentzsch's tendency to play tight first sets (60% over 9.5 games) and Piros' occasional slow starts against quality opponents make over 9.5 games in the first set a reasonable expectation.
- Gentzsch's first sets in his last 15 matches average 10.1 games, with 9 of 15 sets going over 9.5 games.
- Piros' first sets average 8.9 games, but against top-200 opponents, they often exceed 9.5 games.
- In their H2H, the first set had 10 games (6-4).
- Gentzsch's serve and return stats suggest competitive opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Piros' exceptional first-set record in recent matches (13/15) and high career conversion rate suggest he is likely to start strongly against Gentzsch, who has been less consistent in opening sets.
- Piros has won the first set in 13 of his last 15 matches (86.7%), including all three matches this tournament.
- Gentzsch has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), and lost it in his last two matches against higher-ranked opponents.
- Piros' first set win conversion rate in his career is 87%, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostZsombor PirosEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid ace counts on clay, with a combined average of 11.0 aces per match in recent form, making over 10.5 aces likely given their serving styles.
- Gentzsch averages 6.9 aces per match in his last 15 matches (104 total aces).
- Piros averages 4.1 aces per match in his last 15 matches (61 total aces).
- Combined average aces per match: 11.0, with Gentzsch's high ace rate on clay (6.9) and Piros' consistent serving.
- In their H2H, they combined for 12 aces (Gentzsch 8, Piros 4).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's high double fault rate (4.3 per match) is the primary driver, and even with Piros' low count, the combined average nears 5.5; their H2H saw 12 double faults, supporting the over.
- Gentzsch averages 4.3 double faults per match in his last 15 matches (64 total).
- Piros averages only 1.1 double faults per match in his last 15 matches (17 total).
- Combined average double faults: 5.4, but Gentzsch's high rate (4.3) often pushes totals over 5.5.
- In their H2H, Gentzsch had 10 double faults alone, contributing to a total of 12.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's high frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches (53.3%) and the competitive nature of their previous encounter make a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Gentzsch has played a tiebreak in 8 of his last 15 matches (53.3%), including 3 in his last 5.
- Piros has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33.3%), but his matches against competitive opponents often feature tight sets.
- Their H2H match included a second-set tiebreak.
- Gentzsch's career tiebreak win rate is 61%, indicating he often forces tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Zsombor Piros has been highly reliable when projected to win

Zsombor Piros has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions (87%). His average estimated probability was 68.5%, with an expected 10.3 wins, indicating consistent overperformance. Both missed predictions occurred away from home, with one loss as a 58% favorite and another as a 72% favorite.

Recent evidence for Zsombor Piros15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#119Zsombor Piros0-2#409Max Hans Rehberg

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·72%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#119Zsombor Piros0-2#409Max Hans Rehberg

Zsombor Piros to win

72%probability

Max Hans Rehberg won

Missed

20 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#120Zsombor Piros2-0#240Stefano Napolitano

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·72%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#120Zsombor Piros2-0#240Stefano Napolitano

Zsombor Piros to win

72%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

11 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#196Jerome Kym

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#196Jerome Kym

Zsombor Piros to win

58%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

10 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#230Lautaro Midon0-2#169Zsombor Piros

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·62%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#230Lautaro Midon0-2#169Zsombor Piros

Zsombor Piros to win

62%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#723Gabriel Ghetu

BetBugsZsombor Piros to win·82%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#169Zsombor Piros2-0#723Gabriel Ghetu

Zsombor Piros to win

82%probability

Zsombor Piros won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-7(7) 7-5Tom Gentzsch#185vZsombor Piros#123Apr 29, 2026

1 total meetings

Tom Gentzsch

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(5)#211Henri Squire

6-1 1-6 6-1#272Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#276Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#866Max Dahlin

6-3 6-3#258Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#167Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-0#246Andrej Nedic

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#308Dali Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-0#222Guy Den Ouden

7-5 6-4#336Jan Kumstat

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#242Max Houkes

6-3 6-2#647Pieter De Lange

7-5 6-4#429Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-4#203Daniel Rincon

7-5 6-2#250Max Basing

Zsombor Piros

14W 1L

6-4 6-1#222Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-2#193Diego Dedura

7-6(1) 6-0#203Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-4#332Max Hans Rehberg

6-1 3-2 ret.#226Stefano Napolitano

6-1 7-6(2)#119Titouan Droguet

7-6(5) 6-3#205Jerome Kym

6-2 7-6(3)#191Lautaro Midon

4-6 6-4 6-3#104Damir Dzumhur

6-0 6-3#703Gabriel Ghetu

6-4 6-4#195Keegan Smith

4-6 6-3 6-2#231Maks Kasnikowski

6-2 6-3#378Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 3-6 6-1#399Stefan Palosi

6-1 6-4#507Radu Albot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TGTom GentzschGentzsch

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Zsombor PirosPirosZP

Zsombor Piros carries the stronger recent form — Tom Gentzsch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.9%+2.9pp60.0%

1st Serve Won75.1%+4.7pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won44.9%+18.0pp62.9%

Aces / Match6.9+2.84.1

Double Faults / Match4.33.2 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.4%+1.8pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted42.3%+4.1pp46.4%

Break Pts Saved55.4%+11.8pp67.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+3.4pp54.7%

Serve · 3–2

62.9%1st Serve In+2.9pp60.0%

75.1%1st Serve Won+4.7pp70.4%

44.9%2nd Serve Won+18.0pp62.9%

6.9Aces / Match+2.84.1

4.3Double Faults / Match3.2 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

39.4%Return Pts Won+1.8pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–2

42.3%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp46.4%

55.4%Break Pts Saved+11.8pp67.2%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+3.4pp54.7%

Tom Gentzsch

Zsombor Piros

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Zsombor Piros

Over 9.5

Zsombor Piros

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Tom Gentzsch

Zsombor Piros

Stat Battle