United StatesLexington - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Rei Sakamoto #165Japan1Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2

Sets 6-7 · 6-3 · 5-7Fri 7 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRei Sakamoto · 103 places

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

Reached a career-high No. 148 on 15 June 2026 and is No. 165 in the supplied structured data. All three of his Challenger singles titles were won on hard courts.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #148 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Aug 2026, 15:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Sakamoto’s superior recent hard-court form and momentum make him the favorite, but the best betting value is on Sakamoto to win 2-1 at 4.00, with a 15-point edge over the implied probability.

The first set over 9.5 games and total aces over 14.5 are also attractive, given both players’ serving strength and competitive recent matches.

Context

Sakamoto's last 15 hard-court record is 3-1 (75%), while Butvilas is 3-3 (50%).
- Sakamoto beat world No. 181 Michael Mmoh 6-4 6-4 in his last match; Butvilas lost to No. 144 Mackenzie McDonald in his most recent hard-court outing.
- Butvilas has lost three of his last five matches across all surfaces, with only one win against a top-200 opponent in that span.
Butvilas' last six hard-court matches include two that went to a deciding set.
- Sakamoto's last four hard-court matches have all been straight-set results.
- Butvilas' career deciding-set win rate is 45%, compared to Sakamoto's 64%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sakamoto's superior recent form and hard-court win rate in the last 15 matches give him a clear edge, supported by his strong performance this week in Lexington.
- Sakamoto's last15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs Butvilas 6-9 (40%).
- On hard courts last15: Sakamoto 3-1 (75%), Butvilas 3-3 (50%).
- Sakamoto's recent form: won last 2 matches in straight sets at this tournament, including a win over a higher-ranked opponent (Mmoh, #181).
- Butvilas lost 3 of last 5 matches, with only 1 win against a top-200 opponent in that span.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRei SakamotoEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of both players' recent hard-court matches and the likelihood of at least one tight set, the total games are expected to exceed 21.5.
- Sakamoto's last15 hard-court matches averaged 23.5 games per match.
- Butvilas' last15 hard-court matches averaged 22.8 games per match.
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple tight sets; Sakamoto's last two wins were 6-4 6-4 and 7-6 7-5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve well, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Sakamoto's last 4 hard-court first sets: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 (all over 9.5 games).
- Butvilas' last 6 hard-court first sets: 4 of 6 went over 9.5 games.
- Both players have strong first-set win percentages, suggesting a tight opening set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Sakamoto's strong career first-set conversion and current momentum suggest he is likely to start well, while Butvilas has been inconsistent in opening sets recently.
- Sakamoto's first-set win conversion career: 86%.
- Butvilas' first-set win conversion career: 81%, but recent form shows struggles early in matches.
- In last 15 hard-court matches, Sakamoto won 3 of 4 first sets; Butvilas won 3 of 6.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRei SakamotoEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players maintain relatively low double-fault rates on hard courts, making it likely the total stays under 5.5.
- Sakamoto averages 2.3 double faults per hard-court match in last15.
- Butvilas averages 2.7 double faults per hard-court match in last15.
- Combined average of 5.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid ace counts on hard courts, and with a likely competitive match extending rallies, the total aces should surpass 14.5.
- Sakamoto averages 8.3 aces per match on hard courts in last15.
- Butvilas averages 6.7 aces per match on hard courts in last15.
- Combined average of 15 aces per match in their recent hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With Sakamoto's recent trend of tiebreaks on hard courts and the competitive nature of the matchup, at least one tiebreak is a reasonable expectation.
- Sakamoto has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches.
- Butvilas has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 6 hard-court matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 52-54% career, indicating closely contested sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(6) 6-2Rei Sakamoto#165vEdas Butvilas#268Jun 1, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Rei Sakamoto

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#181Michael Mmoh

7-6(3) 7-5#625Aidan Mayo

6-4 6-3#530Timo Legout

6-3 6-7(3) 6-2—Jules Leroux

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 6-4#79Jaime Faria

6-4 6-4#690Aziz Dougaz

7-6(6) 3-6 6-3#350Anton Matusevich

7-5 6-1#116Yibing Wu

6-2 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-4 6-0#75Alex Molcan

6-4 3-6 6-3#135Alexandre Muller

7-5 6-1#272Chun Hsin Tseng

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(5)#283Matteo Martineau

7-5 6-7(1) 7-6(6)#650Ryan Seggerman

6-2 7-6(2)—Nicola Porcu

Edas Butvilas

6W 9L

6-0 6-2#486Ozan Baris

6-3 3-6 6-3#168Tristan Boyer

3-6 6-3 6-4#144Mackenzie Mcdonald

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#244Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-3#228Frederico Ferreira Silva

3-6 7-5 6-3#194Moez Echargui

3-6 6-4 6-4#370Cruz Hewitt

6-3 6-4#243Andre Ilagan

7-6(1) 6-4#383Trevor Svajda

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#625Aidan Mayo

6-4 6-3#11Alexander Bublik

6-3 6-1#88Lorenzo Sonego

7-5 7-6(4)#86James Duckworth

6-4 6-1#135Alexandre Muller

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RSRei SakamotoSakamoto

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Edas ButvilasButvilasEB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.2%+0.8pp60.0%

1st Serve Won69.7%+3.3pp73.0%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+2.0pp51.8%

Aces / Match7.9+1.56.4

Double Faults / Match2.80.9 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.1%—36.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted36.6%—36.0%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+4.3pp52.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.8%—50.4%

Serve · 2–3

59.2%1st Serve In+0.8pp60.0%

69.7%1st Serve Won+3.3pp73.0%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp51.8%

7.9Aces / Match+1.56.4

2.8Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.1%Return Pts Won—36.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

36.6%Break Pts Converted—36.0%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp52.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.8%Total Pts Won—50.4%