CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Raphael Collignon #38Belgium0Alexei Popyrin #139Australia2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Wed 5 Aug 2026, 20:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaphael Collignon · 101 places

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

Belgian right-hander, born 13 January 2002. He reached a reported career-high No. 37 in July 2026; no reliable source in this search established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #38
Peak ranking: #37 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

Australian right-hander, born 5 August 1999. His ATP profile records a career-high No. 19 in August 2025; no reliable current source in this search established an active fitness issue or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #139
Peak ranking: #19 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 10:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Collignon is the clear favorite based on a dominant H2H win, superior recent form, and better hard-court results this season.

The best betting value lies in Collignon to win 2-0 and the match total under 22.5 games, while the game handicap market should be avoided due to Collignon's narrow winning margins.

Context

Collignon won 88% of first-serve points in that match, while Popyrin managed only 64%.
- Collignon converted 60% of break points; Popyrin created no break chances.
- The match lasted only 18 games, showing Collignon's control from start to finish.
Popyrin's hard-court record this year is 4-9, with six of those nine losses coming in straight sets.
- He lost to world No. 251 Andres Andrade on hard courts in July, dropping the final set 6-1.
- His first-serve points won on hard courts in the last 15 matches is 72.6%, below his career average of 74%.
Collignon's last-15 record is 9-6, with wins over Ben Shelton (world No. 10) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (world No. 53).
- Popyrin's last-15 record is 6-9, with losses to players ranked outside the top 100 like Andrade and Choinski.
- Collignon has won 60% of his matches in this window, while Popyrin has won only 40%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Collignon's superior recent form, dominant H2H win, and better hard-court results this season give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Collignon won the only H2H meeting 6-4 6-2 on grass in June 2026, dominating first-serve points (88% won) and converting 60% of break points.
- Collignon's last 15 overall record is 9-6 (60%), while Popyrin's is 6-9 (40%); Collignon's recent form includes wins over top-20 players like Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
- On hard courts this season, Collignon is 8-6 with a 57% win rate, while Popyrin is 4-9 (31%); Collignon's career hard-court win percentage is 48/100 (48%) vs Popyrin's 147/301 (49%), but recent form heavily favors Collignon.
- Collignon's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, indicating strong front-running ability; Popyrin's is 82%, but his recent first-set performance has been weaker.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaphael CollignonEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Collignon's ability to win in straight sets and the low-game H2H history point to a match finishing under 22.5 games.
- In their only H2H match, total games were 18 (6-4, 6-2).
- Collignon's last 15 matches average 21.8 total games per match; Popyrin's average 24.1, but on hard courts Popyrin's matches average 24.7 games.
- Collignon's recent straight-set wins on hard courts (e.g., 6-4 6-2 vs Popyrin, 6-2 6-4 vs Bautista Agut) suggest he can close matches efficiently.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to have competitive first sets, and the H2H first set went to 10 games, making over 9.5 likely.
- In the H2H, set 1 had 10 games (6-4).
- Collignon's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games; Popyrin's average 9.5 games.
- On hard courts, Collignon's first sets average 9.7 games, and Popyrin's average 9.3 games, but both players have had tight opening sets recently.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Collignon's comfortable H2H win and Popyrin's heavy defeats suggest Collignon can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- In the H2H, Collignon won by 6 games (12-6).
- Collignon's average game margin in wins over his last 15 is +4.2 games; Popyrin's average loss margin is -4.8 games.
- On hard courts, Collignon's wins have an average margin of +4.5 games, while Popyrin's losses average -5.2 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaphael Collignon -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Collignon's strong first-set record and Popyrin's tendency to start slowly make Collignon the likely set 1 winner.
- Collignon's career first-set win conversion is 89%, and in his last 15 matches he has won the first set in 9 of 15 (60%).
- Popyrin has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%), including the H2H meeting where he lost the first set 6-4.
- On hard courts in the last 15, Collignon's first-serve points won is 78.4% overall, while Popyrin's is 72.6% on hard, suggesting Collignon can start stronger.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRaphael CollignonEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Collignon's straight-set win over Popyrin in their only meeting and Popyrin's frequent straight-set losses support a 2-0 outcome.
- Collignon won the H2H in straight sets (6-4, 6-2).
- In his last 15 matches, Collignon has won in straight sets 6 times (40%), while Popyrin has lost in straight sets 7 times (47%).
- On hard courts this season, Collignon's straight-set win rate is 50% (4 of 8 wins), and Popyrin's straight-set loss rate is 67% (6 of 9 losses).
BetBugs · Set BettinglostRaphael Collignon 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak frequencies, and the H2H had none, suggesting a tiebreak is unlikely.
- In the H2H, there were no tiebreaks.
- Collignon's last 15 matches have featured a tiebreak in only 4 of 15 (27%); Popyrin's have had a tiebreak in 5 of 15 (33%).
- On hard courts, Collignon's tiebreak rate is 20% (3 of 15 sets), and Popyrin's is 25% (2 of 8 sets) in recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With two big servers on a fast hard court, the combined ace count should exceed 15.5, especially if the match goes three sets.
- Collignon averages 8.6 aces per match in his last 15; Popyrin averages 7.3, but on hard courts Popyrin averages 10.0 aces per match.
- In the H2H, Collignon hit 6 aces and Popyrin hit 5, totaling 11 aces in a straight-set match.
- Both players have high ace rates on hard courts: Collignon 8.6 overall, Popyrin 10.0 in his last 3 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Collignon's tendency to double-fault and Popyrin's hard-court double-fault rate make over 7.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Collignon averages 5.1 double faults per match in his last 15; Popyrin averages 2.9, but on hard courts Popyrin averages 3.7.
- In the H2H, Collignon had 4 double faults and Popyrin had 3, totaling 7.
- Collignon's high double-fault rate (5.1 per match) and Popyrin's occasional lapses (3.7 on hard) could push the total over 7.5.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Raphael Collignon has been highly reliable when projected to win

Collignon has fulfilled 10 of 14 win predictions (71%), including all 5 with probability ≥65%. Today's 72% projection aligns with his strongest historical reliability, while opponent Popyrin has been unpredictable, winning only 6 of 11 matches when favored or unfavored.

Recent evidence for Raphael Collignon14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

—Daniel Altmaier2-0—Raphael Collignon

BetBugsRaphael Collignon to win·62%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

—Daniel Altmaier2-0—Raphael Collignon

Raphael Collignon to win

62%probability

Daniel Altmaier won

Missed

15 Jul·ATP Gstaad

—Raphael Collignon2-0—Lorenzo Sonego

BetBugsRaphael Collignon to win·62%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

—Raphael Collignon2-0—Lorenzo Sonego

Raphael Collignon to win

62%probability

Raphael Collignon won

Matched

13 Jul·ATP Gstaad

—Raphael Collignon2-1—Timofey Skatov

BetBugsRaphael Collignon to win·65%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

—Raphael Collignon2-1—Timofey Skatov

Raphael Collignon to win

65%probability

Raphael Collignon won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Eastbourne

—Raphael Collignon1-2—Juan Manuel Cerundolo

BetBugsRaphael Collignon to win·58%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Eastbourne

—Raphael Collignon1-2—Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Raphael Collignon to win

58%probability

Juan Manuel Cerundolo won

Missed

18 Jun·ATP Halle

—Raphael Collignon2-1—Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsRaphael Collignon to win·58%

Matched

18 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

—Raphael Collignon2-1—Mattia Bellucci

Raphael Collignon to win

58%probability

Raphael Collignon won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-2Raphael Collignon#38vAlexei Popyrin#139Jun 16, 2026

1 total meetings

Raphael Collignon

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#60Daniel Altmaier

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#53Stefanos Tsitsipas

1-6 7-6(5) 7-5#52Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(7) 4-6 7-5#18Valentin Vacherot

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#88Lorenzo Sonego

3-6 7-6(1) 6-4#147Timofey Skatov

7-5 6-1 6-3#24Arthur Fils

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#52Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(10) 7-6(2)#3Alexander Zverev

4-6 6-4 6-3#80Mattia Bellucci

6-4 6-2#139Alexei Popyrin

6-2 6-4#177Roberto Bautista Agut

6-4 6-2#690Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-7(5) 5-7 6-4 7-6(4)#35Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 7-5 6-4#10Ben Shelton

Alexei Popyrin

6W 9L

4-6 7-5 6-3#56Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-4 2-3 ret.#434Thanasi Kokkinakis

7-5 3-6 6-1#251Andres Andrade

6-4 6-2 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

1-6 6-2 6-2#77Jan Choinski

6-4 6-2#38Raphael Collignon

3-6 6-3 7-6(3) 7-5#87Zachary Svajda

6-4 6-3#14Casper Ruud

6-4 6-4#9Taylor Fritz

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-2 6-0#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 2-6 6-4#17Jakub Mensik

6-2 6-3#40Matteo Berrettini

7-6(7) 6-4#100Martin Damm

6-3 6-4#14Casper Ruud

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RCRaphael CollignonCollignon

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Alexei PopyrinPopyrinAP

Raphael Collignon carries the stronger recent form — Alexei Popyrin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.9%+3.7pp60.2%

1st Serve Won78.4%+4.2pp74.2%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+2.0pp50.0%

Aces / Match8.6+1.37.3

Double Faults / Match5.12.2 fewer2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won31.9%—32.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted36.5%+4.5pp32.0%

Break Pts Saved64.8%+10.0pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.3pp48.6%

Serve · 3–2

63.9%1st Serve In+3.7pp60.2%

78.4%1st Serve Won+4.2pp74.2%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp50.0%

8.6Aces / Match+1.37.3

5.1Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer2.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

31.9%Return Pts Won—32.6%

Pressure · 2–0

36.5%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp32.0%

64.8%Break Pts Saved+10.0pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.3pp48.6%

Raphael Collignon

Alexei Popyrin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Raphael Collignon

Raphael Collignon

Under 22.5

Raphael Collignon 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Raphael Collignon

Alexei Popyrin

Stat Battle