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Liudmila Samsonova #55Russia2Barbora Krejcikova #26Czechia0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Wed 5 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBarbora Krejcikova · 29 places

Liudmila Samsonova

Russia

Current WTA ranking No. 55; career high No. 12 reached in February 2023. She is right-handed, 182 cm tall and identifies hard court as her favorite surface.

Current ranking: #55
Peak ranking: #12 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Barbora Krejcikova

Czechia

Current WTA ranking No. 26; career high No. 2 reached in February 2022. She is right-handed, 178 cm tall and lists clay as her favorite surface.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 16:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Krejcikova's elite hard-court form (8-1) and return stats make her the favorite, but Samsonova's serve and H2H edge keep it competitive.

Best bets: Samsonova +4.5 games and over 20.5 total games, with value also on Krejcikova 2-0.

Context

Last 15 hard-court record: 8-1 (88.9%), with 7 of 8 wins in straight sets.
- Won 47% of return points on hard courts in that span, breaking opponents at a 51.2% clip.
- Recent wins over Sakkari, Tauson, and Zheng show she can handle varied opposition.
Samsonova's opener lasted over two hours and featured a first-set tiebreak, adding physical and mental strain.
- Krejcikova last played on July 25, giving her 11 days of rest before this match.
- Samsonova's recent hard-court matches average 111 minutes, so fatigue could be a factor late in sets.
Averages 5.3 aces per hard-court match in her last 15, but also 7.0 double faults.
- First-serve points won is high at 79.1%, but second-serve points won drops to 42.9%.
- Krejcikova's 47% return points won on hard courts suggests she can pressure Samsonova's second serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Krejcikova's dominant recent form (12-3 overall, 8-1 on hard) and superior return stats give her a clear edge, though Samsonova's H2H advantage on hard courts adds uncertainty.
- Krejcikova's last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), Samsonova: 7-8 (46.7%).
- On hard courts last 15: Krejcikova 8-1 (88.9%), Samsonova 3-1 (75%) but only 4 matches tracked.
- Krejcikova return points won last 15: 44.8% overall, 47% on hard; Samsonova: 41.2% overall, 39.5% on hard.
- H2H: Samsonova leads 3-1, but last meeting was May 2024 on clay; all hard-court meetings won by Samsonova in 2023-2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBarbora KrejcikovaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Samsonova's ability to keep matches close, even against strong opponents, suggests she will cover a +3.5 game handicap in a likely competitive contest.
- Samsonova's last 15 losses: average margin -4.1 games; Krejcikova's wins: average margin +4.8 games.
- On hard courts last 15: Samsonova's only loss was by 5 games; Krejcikova's wins average margin +5.1 games.
- H2H: all matches decided by 4 games or fewer except one 6-2, 6-0 blowout.
- Samsonova's recent form shows competitiveness even in losses (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 vs. Shnaider).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLiudmila Samsonova +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players tend to play tight first sets, with Samsonova's serve and Krejcikova's return creating extended games, making over 9.5 likely.
- Samsonova's last 15 first-set average: 10.1 games; Krejcikova: 9.5 games.
- On hard courts last 15: Samsonova first-set average 10.0 games, Krejcikova 9.2 games.
- H2H first sets: 8, 12, 8, 12 games; all over 9.5 except one 8-game set.
- Samsonova's last match first set was 7-6; Krejcikova's recent first sets often competitive (e.g., 7-6, 6-4).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and H2H history suggest a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games, even if Krejcikova wins in straight sets.
- Samsonova's last 15 matches average 23.0 games per match; Krejcikova's average 22.4.
- On hard courts last 15: Samsonova 22.3 games/match, Krejcikova 21.0 games/match.
- H2H matches: 22, 22, 14, 25 games; 3 of 4 went over 21.5.
- Both players have competitive recent matches with tight sets; Samsonova's last match was 7-6, 7-5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Krejcikova's high first-set win rate and dominant hard-court set record in recent matches make her the favorite to take the opener.
- Krejcikova first set win conversion career: 88%; Samsonova: 85%.
- Krejcikova last 15 hard-court sets won: 85% (17/20); Samsonova: 66.7% (6/9).
- Samsonova first serve points won last 15 on hard: 79.1%, but only 4 matches; Krejcikova: 70.5% over 9 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBarbora KrejcikovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krejcikova's dominant hard-court form and high straight-set win rate suggest a two-set match, though Samsonova's resilience could force a decider.
- Krejcikova's last 15: 9 straight-set wins, 3 three-set wins; Samsonova: 4 straight-set wins, 3 three-set wins.
- On hard courts last 15: Krejcikova 7 of 9 matches under 2.5 sets; Samsonova 2 of 4 under 2.5.
- H2H: 3 of 4 matches went over 2.5 sets, but all were close; current form favors Krejcikova's efficiency.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samsonova's elevated double fault count on hard surfaces, combined with Krejcikova's moderate rate, makes over 9.5 double faults probable.
- Samsonova double faults per match last 15: 5.3 overall, 7.0 on hard; Krejcikova: 4.3 overall, 4.6 on hard.
- Combined average double faults: 9.6 overall, 11.6 on hard.
- H2H double faults: Samsonova 20 (5.0 avg), Krejcikova 23 (5.8 avg); combined 10.8 avg.
- Samsonova's high double fault rate on hard courts is a key driver.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samsonova's strong serving on hard courts pushes the combined ace total above 7.5, though Krejcikova's lower ace output makes this a borderline call.
- Samsonova aces per match last 15: 4.0 overall, 5.3 on hard; Krejcikova: 3.9 overall, 3.3 on hard.
- Combined average aces per match: 7.9 overall, 8.6 on hard.
- H2H aces: Samsonova 20 in 4 matches (5.0 avg), Krejcikova 8 (2.0 avg); combined 7.0 avg.
- Samsonova's hard-court ace rate is elevated; Krejcikova's lower ace count may keep total near line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Barbora Krejcikova has been highly reliable when projected to win

She has fulfilled 13 of 15 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 74.9%. The two losses occurred against Kimberly Birrell and Lilli Tagger, both with probabilities of 72% and 78% respectively. Her current prediction of 62% sits at the lower end of her historical range, which spans from 62% to 85%.

Recent evidence for Barbora Krejcikova15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-1#26Barbora Krejcikova

BetBugsBarbora Krejcikova to win·78%

Missed

25 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#74Lilli Tagger2-1#26Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova to win

78%probability

Lilli Tagger won

Missed

24 Jul·WTA Prague

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#26Barbora Krejcikova

BetBugsBarbora Krejcikova to win·78%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#26Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova to win

78%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Matched

23 Jul·WTA Prague

#226Lucie Havlickova0-2#26Barbora Krejcikova

BetBugsBarbora Krejcikova to win·85%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#226Lucie Havlickova0-2#26Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova to win

85%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Matched

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#184Linda Fruhvirtova0-2#32Barbora Krejcikova

BetBugsBarbora Krejcikova to win·85%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#184Linda Fruhvirtova0-2#32Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova to win

85%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Matched

18 Jul·WTA Athens

#30Clara Tauson1-2#32Barbora Krejcikova

BetBugsBarbora Krejcikova to win·62%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#30Clara Tauson1-2#32Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Matched

Head-to-Head

3-1 (4 meetings)

W6-2 6-7(5) 6-4Liudmila Samsonova#55vBarbora Krejcikova#26May 20, 2024

W7-5 6-4Liudmila Samsonova#55vBarbora Krejcikova#26Feb 9, 2024

L6-2 6-0Liudmila Samsonova#55vBarbora Krejcikova#26Apr 18, 2023

W7-5 7-6(6)Liudmila Samsonova#55vBarbora Krejcikova#26Feb 9, 2023

Liudmila Samsonova dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Liudmila Samsonova

7W 8L

7-6(9) 7-5#36Janice Tjen 6-3 6-4#17Diana Shnaider

6-2 6-2#41Xinyu Wang

3-6 6-4 6-4#23Madison Keys

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#25Marie Bouzkova

6-4 4-6 6-2#17Diana Shnaider

6-3 6-3#103Polina Kudermetova

3-6 6-3 6-2#9Elina Svitolina

6-3 7-5#37Katerina Siniakova

1-6 6-3 6-0#24Elise Mertens

5-7 6-4 6-3#144Harriet Dart

6-4 6-4#166Jil Teichmann

7-5 6-3#61Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-2#27Anastasia Potapova

6-4 6-3#31Ann Li

Barbora Krejcikova

12W 3L

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(4)#46Lilli Tagger

6-3 6-3#120Dominika Salkova

6-4 6-2#231Lucie Havlickova

6-2 6-4#183Linda Fruhvirtova

7-6(5) 6-3#33Maria Sakkari

6-1 4-6 6-3#30Clara Tauson

6-4 6-4#125Qinwen Zheng

6-0 6-2#194Carole Monnet

6-3 6-3#239Viktoriya Tomova

7-5 5-7 6-3#6Karolina Muchova

6-3 7-5#42Nikola Bartunkova

4-6 7-5 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

6-1 6-4#382Hannah Klugman

6-3 7-6(6)#69Kimberly Birrell

6-3 7-6(4)#68Magda Linette

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LSLiudmila SamsonovaSamsonova

Last 15

0–8

9 core stats · 1 even

Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikovaBK

Barbora Krejcikova carries the stronger recent form — Liudmila Samsonova's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.1%+4.7pp60.8%

1st Serve Won67.4%+1.2pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won46.7%+1.8pp48.5%

Aces / Match4.0—3.9

Double Faults / Match5.31.0 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.2%+3.6pp44.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.5%+8.6pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved59.2%+7.5pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+3.2pp52.9%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

56.1%1st Serve In+4.7pp60.8%

67.4%1st Serve Won+1.2pp68.6%

46.7%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp48.5%

4.0Aces / Match—3.9

5.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

41.2%Return Pts Won+3.6pp44.8%

Pressure · 0–2

38.5%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp47.1%

59.2%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+3.2pp52.9%

Liudmila Samsonova #55Russia2Barbora Krejcikova #26Czechia0

Player Profiles

Liudmila Samsonova

Barbora Krejcikova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Liudmila Samsonova +4.5

Over 9.5

Over 20.5

Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova

Barbora Krejcikova 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Barbora Krejcikova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Liudmila Samsonova

Barbora Krejcikova

Stat Battle