CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Karen Khachanov #39Russia0Terence Atmane #46France2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Wed 5 Aug 2026, 22:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaren Khachanov · 7 places

Karen Khachanov

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 8 in July 2019. ITF lists hard and clay as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #39
Peak ranking: #8 · 2019
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard, Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 in April 2026. Reliable profile sources confirm his age, left-handed play, and height; no preferred-surface declaration was securely sourced.

Current ranking: #46
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 11:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Khachanov's superior hard-court experience and recent form make him the favorite, but Atmane's competitiveness should keep the match close.

The best betting value lies in over 23.5 total games and Atmane +2.5 game handicap, with a tiebreak likely. Avoid Atmane 2-0 due to his poor record against top-30 players on hard courts.

Context

Khachanov lost 6-2 6-4 to world No. 160 Tomic on July 30, his only hard-court match in the last 15.
- He landed only 35% of first serves and hit 6 double faults in that match, well below his career average of 62% first serves.
- His last-15 hard-court stats are based on just one match, so his true form on the surface is unclear.
Atmane beat Jack Draper 6-3 2-6 6-2 on August 4 and Frances Tiafoe 4-6 6-3 6-4 on July 28, both on hard courts.
- His hard-court last-3 record is 66.7%, with a 50% sets-won rate and 51.3% games-won rate.
- He averaged 8.7 aces per match and won 79% of first-serve points in those three hard-court matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Khachanov's superior overall form and hard-court pedigree give him a clear edge over Atmane, despite a recent poor hard-court showing.
- Khachanov career hard-court win%: 184 wins vs Atmane 196 wins, but Khachanov has far more matches at ATP level (780 vs 428).
- Khachanov last 15 overall: 53.3% win rate, 51.8% total points won; Atmane last 15 overall: 33.3% win rate, 47.7% total points won.
- Atmane hard-court last 3: 66.7% win rate, but small sample; Khachanov hard-court last 1: loss to Tomic (6-2 6-4) with poor first-serve (35%).
- Khachanov career first-set win conversion 81% vs Atmane 85%, but Khachanov's overall experience edge on hard courts is significant.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKaren KhachanovEstimated chance62%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players serving well and return stats not elite, a competitive match with over 21.5 games is likely.
- Khachanov last 15 average games per match: 31.1 (466 games / 15 matches).
- Atmane last 15 average games per match: 27.6 (414 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have high ace counts (Khachanov 7.2, Atmane 7.4 per match) and moderate return points won (Khachanov 38.2%, Atmane 28.9%), suggesting longer games.
- Hard-court matches often feature more holds; Khachanov's break-point save rate is 67.2%, Atmane's 61.8%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Khachanov last 15: 57.4% sets won, but many sets are close; average set games ~9.9.
- Atmane last 15: 37.5% sets won, but hard-court sets often go to 10+ games.
- Both players have tiebreak experience (Khachanov 52% career, Atmane 58% career).
- Atmane's recent hard-court matches: 6-3, 2-6, 6-2; 6-3, 7-6; 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 — many sets over 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Expect the second set to also be closely contested, with a high likelihood of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Similar reasoning to set1; both players have shown ability to extend sets.
- Khachanov's second-set performance in last 15: often competitive even in losses.
- Atmane's hard-court sets: many go to 10+ games.
- No fitness flags suggesting a drop-off in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane is likely to keep the match close enough to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Khachanov's recent form is not dominant; he lost to Tomic 6-2 6-4 on hard.
- Atmane has been competitive on hard courts, winning 2 of last 3, including a win over Draper.
- Atmane's return points won on hard (33.2%) is decent, and he can keep sets close.
- Khachanov's break-point conversion is only 37.5% in last 15, so he may not pull away.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTerence Atmane +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Khachanov's strong first-set conversion rate and better recent set-winning percentage make him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Khachanov career first-set win conversion: 81%.
- Atmane career first-set win conversion: 85%, but recent form is weaker.
- Khachanov last 15: 57.4% sets won; Atmane last 15: 37.5% sets won.
- Atmane hard-court last 3: 50% sets won, but Khachanov's overall set-winning ability is higher.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKaren KhachanovEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the matchup, a three-set match is a reasonable outcome.
- Khachanov last 15: 53.3% win rate, but many matches went to deciding sets (e.g., 5-setter vs Cobolli, 3-setters on clay).
- Atmane last 15: 33.3% win rate, but 5 of 15 matches went to deciding sets.
- Both players have similar deciding-set win rates (Khachanov 53%, Atmane 52%).
- Hard-court matches between closely ranked players often go three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players averaging over 7 aces per match, the total aces should exceed 14.5.
- Khachanov last 15 aces per match: 7.2.
- Atmane last 15 aces per match: 7.4.
- Combined average: 14.6 aces per match.
- Hard courts typically produce more aces; both players have high ace counts on hard (Khachanov 4 in one match, Atmane 8.7 in last 3 hard).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve well, a tiebreak is likely in this match.
- Khachanov career tiebreak win%: 52%, Atmane: 58%.
- Both players have been involved in tiebreaks recently: Khachanov had tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches; Atmane in 5 of last 15.
- Hard-court matches often feature tiebreaks due to strong serving.
- Atmane's last hard-court match had a tiebreak; Khachanov's last hard match did not, but his overall tiebreak frequency is high.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just under 4.5, making the under a slight favorite.
- Khachanov last 15 double faults per match: 1.8.
- Atmane last 15 double faults per match: 2.5.
- Combined average: 4.3 double faults per match.
- Hard-court double fault rates are typically lower; Khachanov had 6 in one hard match, but that appears an outlier.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Atmane's poor record against top-30 players on hard courts and Khachanov's strong first-set conversion make a straight-set win for Atmane unlikely.

Karen Khachanov

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#160Bernard Tomic

0-6 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#8Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4 6-4#57Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#162Billy Harris

1-6 6-4 6-4#51Ethan Quinn

7-5 5-7 6-2 6-7(2) 6-2#105Jesper De Jong

7-6(5) 5-7 6-1 7-6(4)#90Marco Trungelliti

6-3 7-6(3) 6-0#82Arthur Gea

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)#28Ugo Humbert

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#96Hugo Gaston

6-1 1-6 6-2#14Casper Ruud

6-1 7-6(2)#98Dino Prizmic

5-7 6-4 6-4#70Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-4 6-4#89Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 7-6(11)#17Jakub Mensik

Terence Atmane

5W 10L

6-3 2-6 6-2#143Jack Draper

6-3 7-6(6)#26Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 6-3 6-4#20Frances Tiafoe

7-6(6) 6-1 4-6 6-4#20Frances Tiafoe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-5#108Gabriel Diallo

6-4 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev

6-3 3-6 7-6(2)#64Martin Landaluce

6-4 6-4#55Nuno Borges

6-7(5) 6-2 4-6 6-3 7-5#434Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-2 7-6(4)#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-7(13) 6-1 6-4#119Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-3#8Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4#34Zizou Bergs

6-3 7-6(2)#3Alexander Zverev

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#28Ugo Humbert

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KKKaren KhachanovKhachanov

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Terence AtmaneAtmaneTA

Karen Khachanov carries the stronger recent form — Terence Atmane's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.0%+2.1pp62.9%

1st Serve Won72.2%+2.7pp74.9%

2nd Serve Won53.3%+3.0pp50.3%

Aces / Match7.2—7.4

Double Faults / Match1.80.7 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.2%+9.3pp28.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted37.5%+8.3pp29.2%

Break Pts Saved67.2%+5.4pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+4.1pp47.7%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

65.0%1st Serve In+2.1pp62.9%

72.2%1st Serve Won+2.7pp74.9%

53.3%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp50.3%

7.2Aces / Match—7.4

1.8Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won+9.3pp28.9%

Pressure · 2–0

37.5%Break Pts Converted+8.3pp29.2%

67.2%Break Pts Saved+5.4pp61.8%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+4.1pp47.7%

Karen Khachanov #39Russia0Terence Atmane #46France2

Player Profiles

Karen Khachanov

Terence Atmane

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 23.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Terence Atmane +2.5

Karen Khachanov 2-1

Karen Khachanov

Karen Khachanov

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Terence Atmane 2-0 @ 4.00

Karen Khachanov

Terence Atmane

Stat Battle