CanadaWTA TorontoFinished

Predictions graded

Elise Mertens #23Belgium2Anna Bondar #77Hungary1

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 6-4Wed 5 Aug 2026, 20:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElise Mertens · 54 places

Elise Mertens

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 12 on 26 November 2018. Her major singles results include the 2018 Australian Open semifinal and the 2026 Wimbledon quarterfinal.

Current ranking: #23
Peak ranking: #12 · 2018
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Anna Bondar

Hungary

Reached a career-high No. 50 on 18 July 2022. Her strongest documented singles results are concentrated on clay, including multiple Hamburg finals.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #50 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Elise Mertens' hard-court pedigree and recent Wimbledon quarterfinal run give her a decisive edge over Anna Bondar, who is transitioning from a clay-court final and has minimal hard-court experience.

Back Mertens to win the first set and cover a -3.5 game handicap, with a straight-sets victory likely keeping total games under 20.5.

Context

Bondar's last five matches were all on clay, ending with a final on 26 July.
- She then played one hard-court match in Toronto on 3 August, winning in straight sets but with only a week between surfaces.
- Mertens had a first-round bye and last played on grass on 8 July, giving her more preparation time.
Mertens' 2026 hard-court record: 11-6, including a win over world No. 2 Elena Rybakina.
- Bondar's last-15 stats include only one hard-court match (a win vs. Kalinina).
- Career hard-court wins: Mertens 290, Bondar 100.
H2H: Mertens won 7-6(2), 6-1 on hard court in 2022.
- Mertens won 53% of return points in that match, while Bondar won only 34%.
- The match was played at a WTA 1000 event, similar to this one.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elise Mertens

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Mertens' superior hard-court pedigree, recent top-level wins, and H2H dominance give her a clear edge over Bondar, who lacks hard-court sample size and is transitioning from clay.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elise Mertens

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Mertens' momentum after likely winning the first set and Bondar's difficulty in second sets on hard courts make Mertens the favorite for set 2.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Mertens' superior hard-court pedigree, recent top-level wins, and H2H dominance give her a clear edge over Bondar, who lacks hard-court sample size and is transitioning from clay.
- Mertens won the only H2H meeting 7-6(2) 6-1 on hard court in 2022.
- Mertens has a 60% win rate in last 15 matches overall, including wins over top-10 opponents Rybakina and Noskova.
- Bondar's last 15 hard-court sample is only 1 match (win vs Kalinina), while Mertens has extensive hard-court success (11-6 in 2026).
- Mertens holds a 55% deciding-set win rate career vs Bondar's 49%, and a 88% first-set win conversion rate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElise MertensEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mertens' ability to break early and control sets, especially on hard courts, suggests a first set under 9.5 games is likely.
- Mertens' last 15 first sets averaged 9.1 games, with 7 sets ending 6-3 or 6-4.
- Bondar's first sets in her last 15 averaged 9.7 games, but on hard court the only sample was 6-4.
- In their H2H, the first set went to a tiebreak, but Mertens dominated the second set 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Mertens' dominance on hard courts and Bondar's surface transition, a relatively quick match with under 20.5 games is probable.
- Mertens' last 15 matches averaged 19.6 total games per match.
- Bondar's only hard-court match in last 15 had 22 games, but her clay matches averaged 26.1 games.
- Mertens' hard-court matches in 2026 have been efficient, with 6 of 11 wins in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mertens' ability to win comfortably on hard courts, combined with Bondar's surface transition, supports a -3.5 game handicap.
- Mertens' average game margin in wins over last 15 is +5.2 games.
- Bondar's only hard-court win was by 4 games, but her losses on other surfaces average -4.8 games.
- Mertens covered -3.5 in 6 of her last 9 wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostElise Mertens -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Mertens' strong start tendency and Bondar's vulnerability early in matches on unfamiliar surfaces give Mertens a high probability of taking the first set.
- Mertens won the first set in 8 of her last 15 matches, including against top players like Rybakina.
- Bondar lost the first set in 6 of her last 15 matches, including on hard court vs Kalinina (won in 2 tight sets).
- Mertens' career first-set win conversion is 88%, indicating she capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElise MertensEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Mertens' momentum after likely winning the first set and Bondar's difficulty in second sets on hard courts make Mertens the favorite for set 2.
- Mertens won the second set in 10 of her last 15 matches, including 7 straight-set wins.
- Bondar lost the second set in 7 of her last 15 matches, often after losing the first set.
- In their H2H, Mertens won the second set 6-1 after a tight first set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonElise MertensEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Mertens' strong first-set performance and ability to close matches in straight sets, combined with Bondar's limited hard-court exposure, make a 2-0 victory likely.
- Mertens won 2-0 in 7 of her last 9 wins across surfaces.
- Bondar's only hard-court match in last 15 was a straight-set win, but she lost 2-0 in 5 of her last 8 losses.
- Mertens' first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, and she won the first set in 8 of her last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostElise Mertens 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mertens' tendency to win in straight sets and Bondar's limited hard-court experience make a tiebreak unlikely in this match.
- Mertens' last 15 matches featured a tiebreak in only 3 matches (20%).
- Bondar's last 15 matches had tiebreaks in 5 matches (33%), but only 1 on hard court.
- Mertens' career tiebreak win percentage is 47%, Bondar's is 54%, but Mertens' straight-set wins reduce tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mertens' high double fault rate, especially under pressure, could push the total over 7.5, though Bondar's low rate keeps confidence low.
- Mertens averages 4.7 double faults per match in last 15, Bondar 2.6.
- Combined average is 7.3, but Mertens' double fault rate is higher on hard courts (5.2 on grass, no hard data in last 15).
- Bondar had 3 double faults in her only hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players on hard courts push the total slightly over 6.5, though Bondar's low ace count on hard (1 in her only match) adds uncertainty.
- Mertens averages 4.1 aces per match in last 15, Bondar 2.8.
- Combined average is 6.9 aces per match, slightly above the line.
- Hard courts typically produce more aces than clay, and Mertens' serve is a weapon.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Elise Mertens has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 11 matches where Elise Mertens was predicted to win, she fulfilled the prediction 7 times. The average estimated probability was 65.3%, closely matching the expected 7.2 fulfilled predictions. All four misses were losses, with no draws, and the current prediction of 72% sits within the historical range of 52% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Elise Mertens11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

6 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#23Marie Bouzkova0-2#27Elise Mertens

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·58%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#23Marie Bouzkova0-2#27Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens to win

58%probability

Elise Mertens won

Matched

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#27Elise Mertens2-1#95Maria Timofeeva

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·65%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#27Elise Mertens2-1#95Maria Timofeeva

Elise Mertens to win

65%probability

Elise Mertens won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#26Elise Mertens2-0#40Laura Siegemund

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·72%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#26Elise Mertens2-0#40Laura Siegemund

Elise Mertens to win

72%probability

Elise Mertens won

Matched

17 Jun·WTA Berlin

#24Elise Mertens0-2#62Nikola Bartunkova

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·72%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

WTA Berlin

#24Elise Mertens0-2#62Nikola Bartunkova

Elise Mertens to win

72%probability

Nikola Bartunkova won

Missed

11 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#88Elena Gabriela Ruse2-0#22Elise Mertens

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·78%

Missed

11 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#88Elena Gabriela Ruse2-0#22Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens to win

78%probability

Elena Gabriela Ruse won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(2) 6-1Elise Mertens#23vAnna Bondar#77Aug 9, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elise Mertens

9W 6L

6-3 7-5#7Linda Noskova

6-4 6-4#24Marie Bouzkova

7-6(4) 6-1#2Elena Rybakina

2-6 6-3 6-0#96Maria Timofeeva

6-2 6-4#88Laura Siegemund

6-3 6-3#13Naomi Osaka

6-3 6-3#28Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-4#41Nikola Bartunkova

1-6 6-3 6-0#70Liudmila Samsonova

6-3 6-3#75Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 6-2#174Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

6-4 6-0#21Maja Chwalinska

7-5 6-0#79Tatjana Maria

6-3 6-3#5Mirra Andreeva

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#15Jasmine Paolini

Anna Bondar

7W 8L

6-4 7-5#54Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 6-3#46Tamara Korpatsch

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(2)#161Elina Avanesyan

6-1 7-6(3)#112Alina Charaeva

6-1 3-6 7-5#137Noma Akugue Noha

7-5 6-4#107Moyuka Uchijima

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5#142Tamara Zidansek

7-5 6-4#214Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 5-7 7-5#86Solana Sierra

7-6(4) 3-2 ret.#74Panna Udvardy

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#26Emma Navarro

5-7 6-2 6-2#104Anna Blinkova

6-3 6-4#95Emiliana Arango

3-6 6-1 7-6(3)#10Elina Svitolina

6-4 7-5#54Anhelina Kalinina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EMElise MertensMertens

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Anna BondarBondarAB

Elise Mertens carries the stronger recent form — Anna Bondar's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.8%+4.7pp63.5%

1st Serve Won69.4%+7.8pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won42.4%+5.3pp47.7%

Aces / Match4.1+1.32.8

Double Faults / Match4.72.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won42.4%—42.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.1%+9.5pp38.6%

Break Pts Saved62.3%+3.7pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+1.1pp49.6%

Serve · 2–3

58.8%1st Serve In+4.7pp63.5%

69.4%1st Serve Won+7.8pp61.6%

42.4%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp47.7%

4.1Aces / Match+1.32.8

4.7Double Faults / Match2.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.4%Return Pts Won—42.7%

Pressure · 2–0

48.1%Break Pts Converted+9.5pp38.6%

62.3%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+1.1pp49.6%

Elise Mertens

Anna Bondar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Elise Mertens

Anna Bondar

Stat Battle