CanadaWTA TorontoFinished

Predictions graded

Ann Li #31United States2Kayla Cross #172Canada0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Wed 5 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–614%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnn Li · 141 places

Ann Li

United States

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 29 in May 2026. The WTA lists grass as her favourite surface; she plays right-handed and stands 170 cm.

Current ranking: #31
Peak ranking: #29 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Kayla Cross

Canada

The Canadian left-hander has reached a career-high ranking of No. 168 after breaking into the Top 200 at the end of 2025. Reliable preferred-surface and height data were not available.

Current ranking: #172
Peak ranking: #168
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 15:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Kayla Cross's hot hard-court form (7-2 last 9) and match sharpness give her a clear edge over a cold Ann Li, who has struggled on the surface (1-2).

Back Cross to win at 3.50 and over 19.5 total games, while avoiding Li 2-0 and Cross +4.5 handicap.

Context

Cross last15 on hard: 7-2 record, 66.7% sets won, 54.3% games won (9 matches tracked).
- Cross defeated Katie Boulter 7-6(3), 7-5 in the first round, gaining match sharpness on these courts.
- Li last15 on hard: 1-2 record, 33.3% sets won, 46% games won (3 matches tracked).
- Li received a first-round bye and has not played a match in Toronto yet.
Li last15 on hard: first-serve points won 59.6% (59/99), compared to career 64%.
- Cross last15 on hard: return points won 45%, break point conversion 54.1%.
- Li's hard-court sample is small (3 matches), but the serve dip is consistent across those matches.
Cross last15 on hard: 4.0 double faults per match (36 in 9 matches).
- Cross career double faults per match: 5.1, indicating a persistent issue.
- Li's return game is not elite (42.1% return points won on hard), but extra free points could swing close games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.50
The read
Cross's superior recent hard-court form (7-2 last15, 77.8% win rate) and stronger return metrics (45% return points won, 54.1% break conversion) give her a clear edge over Li's small-sample hard-court struggles (1-2, 47.7% total points won).
- Cross last15 on hard: 7-2 record, 66.7% sets won, 54.3% games won, 50.9% total points won (9 matches tracked).
- Li last15 on hard: 1-2 record, 33.3% sets won, 46% games won, 47.7% total points won (3 matches tracked).
- Cross return points won on hard last15: 45% vs Li 42.1%; Cross break point conversion 54.1% vs Li 45%.
- Cross recent form: 7-1 in last 8 hard-court matches, including a WTA 1000 win over Boulter; Li lost 2 of last 3 hard matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKayla CrossEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cross's hard-court matches average over 22 games, and Li's small-sample low game counts are unlikely to repeat against a competitive opponent; expect at least 21 games.
- Cross last15 hard matches averaged 22.1 games per match (199 games / 9 matches).
- Li last15 hard matches averaged 16.7 games per match, but small sample (3 matches) and two straight-set losses skew low.
- Cross's last 5 hard matches: 22, 15, 17, 21, 18 games; Li's last 3 hard: 18, 16, 15 games.
- Both players have moderate serve hold/break dynamics; Cross break point saved 61.2% on hard, Li 60.7%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Cross's momentum and hard-court set dominance (66.7% sets won) contrast with Li's poor hard-court start record, making Cross the likely first-set winner.
- Cross won first set in 7 of her last 9 hard-court matches; Li lost first set in 2 of her last 3 hard matches.
- Cross first-set win conversion career: 89%; Li career first-set win conversion: 87%.
- Cross hard-court last15: 66.7% sets won; Li hard-court last15: 33.3% sets won.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKayla CrossEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average low ace counts on hard courts (2.3 each), making a combined total under 7.5 highly likely based on recent data.
- Cross last15 hard aces per match: 2.3; Li last15 hard aces per match: 2.3.
- Cross career aces per match: 2.4 (638 aces / 269 matches); Li career: 2.6 (1228/478).
- Combined average aces per match last15 hard: 4.6; only 1 of 9 Cross hard matches exceeded 7 aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cross's high double-fault rate (4.0 per match on hard) combined with Li's moderate rate pushes the expected total above 6.5, especially in a potentially tight match.
- Cross last15 hard double faults per match: 4.0; Li last15 hard: 2.0.
- Cross career double faults per match: 5.1 (1360/269); Li career: 2.4 (1141/478).
- Combined average double faults last15 hard: 6.0; Cross exceeded 4 double faults in 5 of 9 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Ann Li

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#45Magdalena Frech

6-2 6-2#89Alina Korneeva

6-2 6-1#98Maria Timofeeva

7-5 1-6 6-4#52Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 6-7(5) 6-1#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-3 2-6 6-3#51Viktorija Golubic

5-7 6-2 6-2#106Taylah Preston

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4#69Kimberly Birrell

6-3 6-4#64Diane Parry

6-4 6-2#62Shuai Zhang

6-1 6-3#28Emma Navarro

6-3 7-5#25Marie Bouzkova

4-6 6-4 6-3#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-2#75Maya Joint

6-4 6-3#55Liudmila Samsonova

Kayla Cross

9W 6L

7-6(3) 7-5#72Katie Boulter

6-2 6-1#144Harriet Dart

6-3 6-2#121Elvina Kalieva

6-3 6-3#201Whitney Osuigwe

7-5 6-1#238Sara Saito

5-7 7-6(9) 6-2#178Elizabeth Mandlik

6-3 2-6 6-4#345Rebecca Marino

6-3 6-2#534Ana Grubor

5-7 6-3 6-1—Annabelle Xu

6-3 6-1#212Madison Brengle

6-2 6-3#872Sayaka Ishii

6-3 6-4#127Mary Stoiana

6-3 6-4#309Tereza Martincova

6-1 6-1—Megan Knight

6-3 5-7 6-0#335Mingge Xu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ALAnn LiLi

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Kayla CrossCrossKC

Ann Li carries the stronger recent form — Kayla Cross's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.7%+2.4pp58.3%

1st Serve Won67.2%+5.5pp61.7%

2nd Serve Won44.5%+2.6pp47.1%

Aces / Match5.3+3.02.3

Double Faults / Match2.51.8 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.4%+2.4pp43.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.0%+8.9pp51.9%

Break Pts Saved61.1%+8.2pp52.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.0%—49.7%

Serve · 4–1

60.7%1st Serve In+2.4pp58.3%

67.2%1st Serve Won+5.5pp61.7%

44.5%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp47.1%

5.3Aces / Match+3.02.3

2.5Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

41.4%Return Pts Won+2.4pp43.8%

Pressure · 1–1

43.0%Break Pts Converted+8.9pp51.9%

61.1%Break Pts Saved+8.2pp52.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.0%Total Pts Won—49.7%