CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Terence Atmane #56France2Jack Draper #147United Kingdom1

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 6-2Tue 4 Aug 2026, 19:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTerence Atmane · 91 places

Terence Atmane

France

The supplied match data lists Atmane at No. 56. ATP's early-2026 guide recorded his then-career-best No. 61 on 29 September 2025; no reliable preferred-surface statement was retrieved.

Current ranking: #56
Peak ranking: #56
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Jack Draper

United Kingdom

Draper reached a career-high No. 4 in June 2025. His 2026 season has been disrupted by arm and knee issues, including the confirmed left-arm withdrawal from Washington on 27 July.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: #4 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 10:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Jack Draper is favored over Terence Atmane in Montreal, but his recent left-arm injury and lack of match play add risk.

Both are big-serving lefties, so expect a tight match with value on over 22.5 games and Atmane +3.5 games. Draper's superior hard-court pedigree gives him the edge, but fitness concerns make straight-set bets less certain.

Context

Draper pulled out of the Washington tournament on 27 July due to a left-arm issue.
- His last completed match was a grass-court loss on 26 June, meaning he enters Montreal without any recent hard-court preparation.
- In his most recent clay match in April, he retired after losing the second set, showing a pattern of physical interruptions.
Atmane defeated Tiafoe 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 on 28 July, his best win by ranking in the last 15 matches.
- He followed it with a tight 6-3, 7-6 loss to Alejandro Tabilo, staying competitive against another top-30 player.
- Atmane has won only 1 of his last 5 matches overall, but the Tiafoe win suggests his level can spike on hard courts.
Draper's last 15 hard-court record is 5-3, with 52.5% games won and 51.5% total points won.
- He won 79.9% of first-serve points and saved 62.9% of break points on hard courts in that sample.
- Atmane's hard-court sample is only two matches, with a 50% win rate and 49% games won, making Draper's larger body of work more reliable.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Draper's superior hard-court metrics and higher overall win percentage give him a clear edge, despite Atmane's higher ranking.
- Draper's last 15 hard-court record: 5-3 (62.5%), with 52.5% games won and 51.5% total points won.
- Atmane's last 15 hard-court record: 1-1 (50%), with 49% games won and 50.3% total points won (only 2 matches).
- Draper's career hard-court win rate: 125 wins vs Atmane's 195, but Draper's overall win pct is 69.1% vs Atmane's 58.8%.
- Draper's return points won on hard in last 15: 33.4% vs Atmane's 31.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJack DraperEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Atmane's ability to keep matches close, even in losses, suggests he will cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Atmane's last 15 matches: average game margin -1.4; Draper's: +1.4.
- Atmane's hard-court games won % in last 15: 49% vs Draper's 52.5%, a small gap.
- Atmane's recent win over Tiafoe (rank 19) shows he can compete with higher-ranked players.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTerence Atmane +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive recent form and similar playing styles point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Atmane's last 15 matches average 22.7 games per match; Draper's average 22.0.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages in recent hard-court matches (Atmane 49%, Draper 52.5%), suggesting competitive sets.
- No H2H history, but both are left-handed and similar height, likely leading to extended rallies.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong serving from both lefties should keep the first set tight, likely going over 9.5 games.
- Atmane's last 5 matches on hard: 3 of 5 sets had 10+ games.
- Draper's last 5 hard-court sets: 4 of 10 sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages, reducing break opportunities.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar serving stats suggest the second set could also be close, though confidence is lower due to limited data.
- Atmane's recent hard-court sets: 60% went over 9.5 games.
- Draper's recent hard-court sets: 50% went over 9.5 games.
- Both players have break-point save rates around 60% on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Draper's elite first-set conversion rate and strong serving on hard courts make him likely to start fast.
- Draper's first-set win conversion career: 90% vs Atmane's 85%.
- Draper's last 15 hard-court first-serve points won: 79.9% vs Atmane's 82% (small sample for Atmane).
- Atmane's last 15 overall first-serve points won: 75.7% vs Draper's 77.6%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJack DraperEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Two big-serving lefties on a fast hard court should combine for over 15.5 aces.
- Atmane's last 15 hard-court aces per match: 8.5; Draper's: 9.3.
- Combined average aces per match: 17.8 in recent hard-court matches.
- Both are tall (193 cm) left-handers with powerful serves.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With two strong servers, at least one tiebreak is likely in this match.
- Atmane's tiebreak win rate: 58% career; Draper's: 58%.
- Atmane's last 15 matches: 33% featured a tiebreak; Draper's: 27%.
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages, leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight edge to over 4.5 double faults given both players' moderate double-fault rates.
- Atmane's last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 2.0; Draper's: 2.8.
- Combined average: 4.8 double faults per match.
- Draper's recent clay match had 6 double faults, indicating potential serving inconsistency.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Draper's injury uncertainty and Atmane's ability to push sets make this price too short.

Terence Atmane

5W 10L

6-3 7-6(6)#30Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 6-3 6-4#19Frances Tiafoe

7-6(6) 6-1 4-6 6-4#19Frances Tiafoe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-5#99Gabriel Diallo

6-4 6-4#7Daniil Medvedev

6-3 3-6 7-6(2)#63Martin Landaluce

6-4 6-4#49Nuno Borges

6-7(5) 6-2 4-6 6-3 7-5#431Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-2 7-6(4)#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-7(13) 6-1 6-4#119Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-3#9Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4#36Zizou Bergs

6-3 7-6(2)#2Alexander Zverev

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#29Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-5#60Miomir Kecmanovic

Jack Draper

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#29Ugo Humbert

6-1 6-4#99Gabriel Diallo

7-5 6-4#172Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 7-6(5)#85Marcos Giron

3-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(3) 7-6(0)#135Reilly Opelka

6-1 7-5#7Daniil Medvedev

4-6 6-4 7-6(5)#5Novak Djokovic

6-1 7-5#20Francisco Cerundolo

3-6 6-3 6-2#180Roberto Bautista Agut

7-5 6-7(4) 6-4#28Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(8) 6-3#52Quentin Halys

6-2 6-2#490Viktor Durasovic

6-4 7-5 6-7(7) 6-2#191Federico Agustin Gomez

6-4 6-3 1-6 6-4#86Marin Cilic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TATerence AtmaneAtmane

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Jack DraperDraperJD

Jack Draper carries the stronger recent form — Terence Atmane's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.6%—64.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1575.7%+1.9pp77.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%+2.2pp52.8%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/157.5—7.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.1—2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1528.4%+5.7pp34.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1528.2%+13.1pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1560.2%+3.5pp56.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1547.6%+3.4pp51.0%

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

63.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15—64.2%

75.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp77.6%

50.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp52.8%

7.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—7.6

2.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/15—2.2

Return · 0–1

28.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp34.1%

Pressure · 1–1

28.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+13.1pp41.3%

60.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.5pp56.7%

Points · 0–1

47.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.4pp51.0%

Terence Atmane #56France2Jack Draper #147United Kingdom1

Player Profiles

Terence Atmane

Jack Draper

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Terence Atmane +3.5

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Jack Draper 2-0

Jack Draper

Jack Draper

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Terence Atmane 2-1 @ 5.75

Terence Atmane

Jack Draper

Stat Battle