CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Kamil Majchrzak #72Poland0Gael Monfils #326France2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Tue 4 Aug 2026, 02:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamil Majchrzak · 254 places

Kamil Majchrzak

Poland

Reached career-high No. 45 on 29 June 2026 after winning his first ATP title at the Libema Open. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #72
Peak ranking: #45 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Gael Monfils

France

Reached career-high No. 6 on 7 November 2016. Twelve of his 13 ATP titles have come on hard courts.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #6 · 2016
Current age: 39
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 01:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Majchrzak's dominant recent form (10-5 vs. 3-12) and superior hard-court serve stats make him a strong favorite against a rusty Monfils, who hasn't competed in two months.

The best value lies in Majchrzak winning 2-0 at 1.83, while the over 21.5 total games is also appealing given Monfils' lengthy matches. Avoid Monfils in all markets due to his poor hard-court record and high double-fault rate.

Context

Monfils' last match was a five-set loss to Hugo Gaston on 25 May 2026.
- He has won only 2 of his last 10 hard-court matches, with 6.0 double faults per match on the surface.
- No current injury or fitness concern is reported, but the long gap raises questions about match readiness.
Majchrzak's last-15 overall record is 10-5, with wins over top-30 players like Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur.
- On hard courts, he has played only two matches in the last-15 window, winning one and losing one.
- In those two hard-court matches, he won 61.5% of second-serve points and saved 72.7% of break points.
Monfils' last-15 hard-court double-fault average is 6.0 per match, compared to Majchrzak's 2.0.
- Monfils wins only 47.0% of second-serve points on hard courts, while Majchrzak wins 61.5%.
- Monfils' break-point save rate on hard courts is 60.0%, and he has been broken frequently in recent losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kamil Majchrzak

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Majchrzak's dominant recent form (10-5 vs 3-12) and superior serve/return metrics on hard courts give him a clear edge, though the odds are slightly short of the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Majchrzak's superior recent form (10-5 vs 3-12) and stronger serve/return structure, especially on hard courts where Monfils struggles with double faults and second serve, give Majchrzak a clear edge.
- Majchrzak last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Monfils 3-12 (20%); Majchrzak last15 hard record 1-1 (50%) vs Monfils 2-8 (20%).
- Majchrzak last15 overall return points won 35.8% vs Monfils 37.2%, but Majchrzak break point conversion 37.9% vs Monfils 32.8%.
- Majchrzak last15 overall first serve points won 73.9% vs Monfils 72.0%; second serve points won 55.8% vs Monfils 45.0%.
- Monfils last15 hard double faults per match 6.0 vs Majchrzak 2.0; Monfils last15 hard second serve points won 47.0% vs Majchrzak 61.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKamil MajchrzakEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average over 9.5 games, and with Monfils' competitive but losing efforts, a tight opening set is expected.
- Majchrzak last15 overall first set average games 9.7 (146/15); Monfils last15 overall first set average 10.1 (152/15).
- Monfils last15 hard first set average 10.3 games; Majchrzak last15 hard first set average 9.5 (small sample).
- Both players have first set tiebreak history: Majchrzak career tiebreak win% 54%, Monfils 59%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Despite Monfils' poor form, his matches tend to be lengthy (avg 29.7 games), and Majchrzak's recent hard-court win over Paul was tight, suggesting a total above 21.5 is likely.
- Majchrzak last15 overall average games per match 26.5 (397/15); Monfils last15 overall average 29.7 (445/15).
- Monfils last15 hard average games per match 28.6; Majchrzak last15 hard average 22.0 but small sample (2 matches).
- Both players have competitive recent matches: Majchrzak 7-5 7-6 vs Paul, Monfils multiple three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monfils often extends second sets even in losses, and Majchrzak's second set numbers are close to the line, making over 9.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.
- Majchrzak last15 overall second set average 9.5 games; Monfils last15 overall second set average 9.9 games.
- Monfils last15 hard second set average 10.1 games; Majchrzak last15 hard second set average 9.0 (small sample).
- Monfils has forced second sets to 10+ games in 7 of last 10 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Majchrzak's recent set-winning momentum and better break point saving on hard courts suggest he is more likely to take the opening set against an out-of-form Monfils.
- Majchrzak career first set win conversion 87% vs Monfils 87%, but Majchrzak last15 overall sets won 63.2% vs Monfils 37.0%.
- Majchrzak last15 hard first serve points won 70.1% vs Monfils 73.2%, but Monfils last15 hard return points won only 35.4%.
- Monfils last15 hard break points saved 60.0% vs Majchrzak 72.7%, indicating Majchrzak more resilient early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKamil MajchrzakEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Monfils' high double fault rate on hard courts (6.0 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and with Majchrzak adding 2.0, over 6.5 is strongly supported.
- Monfils last15 overall double faults per match 5.3; Majchrzak 1.3; combined 6.6.
- Monfils last15 hard double faults per match 6.0; Majchrzak 2.0; combined 8.0.
- Monfils has 5+ double faults in 8 of last 10 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages on hard courts exceed 14.5, and both players consistently hit aces, making over 14.5 likely even in a two-set match.
- Majchrzak last15 overall aces per match 6.7; Monfils last15 overall 7.7; combined average 14.4.
- Monfils last15 hard aces per match 8.3; Majchrzak last15 hard 7.0; combined 15.3.
- Both players have high ace counts in recent matches: Majchrzak 7+ aces in 8 of last 15, Monfils 8+ in 7 of last 10 hard.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Majchrzak's hard-court sample is too small to trust a -3.5 handicap, and Monfils' recent losses often come in tight sets rather than blowouts.

Kamil Majchrzak

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#10Taylor Fritz

7-5 7-6(4)#21Tommy Paul

2-6 6-2 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#76Zachary Svajda

6-3 7-5 7-5#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 7-6(4)#12Jiri Lehecka

6-3 2-6 7-6(5)#6Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-1#7Daniil Medvedev

6-4 6-3#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-0 6-3#238James McCabe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4)#115Otto Virtanen

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 7-6(7)#115Otto Virtanen

7-6(6) 6-3#94Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-3#219Felix Gill

7-6(3) 6-3#238James McCabe

6-1 6-3 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

Gael Monfils

3W 12L

6-2 6-3 3-6 2-6 6-0#90Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-4#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-4 6-4#11Alexander Bublik

6-7(7) 6-1 6-4#67Tallon Griekspoor

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 6-4#167Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-3#18Valentin Vacherot

6-4 7-6(5)#102Damir Dzumhur

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4 7-5#121Dane Sweeny

5-7 6-3 6-4#55Fabian Marozsan

6-7(3) 6-3 1-0 ret.#89Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 2-6 6-1 3-6 6-4#92Roman Safiullin

6-4 4-6 7-6(3)#138Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 6-1#117Yibing Wu

6-4 1-6 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#84Marton Fucsovics

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KMKamil MajchrzakMajchrzak

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Gael MonfilsMonfilsGM

Kamil Majchrzak carries the stronger recent form — Gael Monfils's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In65.2%+5.7pp59.5%

1st Serve Won73.9%+1.9pp72.0%

2nd Serve Won55.8%+10.8pp45.0%

Aces / Match6.7+1.07.7

Double Faults / Match1.34.0 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.8%+1.4pp37.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted37.9%+5.1pp32.8%

Break Pts Saved61.1%+1.0pp60.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+2.7pp49.0%

Serve · 4–1

65.2%1st Serve In+5.7pp59.5%

73.9%1st Serve Won+1.9pp72.0%

55.8%2nd Serve Won+10.8pp45.0%

6.7Aces / Match+1.07.7

1.3Double Faults / Match4.0 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won+1.4pp37.2%

Pressure · 2–0

37.9%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp32.8%

61.1%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp60.1%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+2.7pp49.0%

Kamil Majchrzak #72Poland0Gael Monfils #326France2

Player Profiles

Kamil Majchrzak

Gael Monfils

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kamil Majchrzak 2-0

Over 21.5

Kamil Majchrzak

Kamil Majchrzak

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Kamil Majchrzak (-3.5) @ 1.73

Gael Monfils @ 2.75

Gael Monfils 2-1 @ 7.00

Kamil Majchrzak

Gael Monfils

Stat Battle