PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Ergi Kirkin #608Türkiye1Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus2

Sets 1-6 · 7-5 · 3-6Tue 4 Aug 2026, 15:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlya Ivashka · 206 places

Ergi Kirkin

Türkiye

The Turkish right-hander reached career-high No. 251 on 6 May 2024. Reliable public sources do not clearly identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #608
Peak ranking: #251 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilya Ivashka's dominant hard-court form and powerful serve give him a clear edge over Ergi Kirkin, who is coming off a taxing three-set qualifier.

While Ivashka is heavily favored, the best betting value is on Ivashka to win 2-0 at 1.44, with the model projecting a 75% probability. Expect a straightforward straight-sets win with under 21.5 total games.

Context

Ivashka last15 hard-court record: 11-4 (73.3%), Kirkin: 6-2 (75%) but with weaker underlying stats.
- Ivashka wins 76.2% of first-serve points vs Kirkin's 68.2%, and 57.5% of second-serve points vs 51.7%.
- Ivashka's total points won is 54.5% vs Kirkin's 51.7% on hard courts.
Kirkin's last match: 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-2 win over Paldanius on August 3, lasting over two hours.
- Ivashka's last two matches: 6-2, 6-1 and 6-4, 6-1 straight-set wins, both under 90 minutes.
- Both players are on their third consecutive day of competition, but Kirkin played five sets in qualifying vs Ivashka's four.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilya Ivashka

1.15fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Ivashka's dominant recent hard-court form and superior serve stats make him a clear favorite, but the odds overstate his win probability relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilya Ivashka

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Ivashka's strong serving and recent quick starts make him likely to take the opening set against Kirkin, who has been less consistent early in matches.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ilya Ivashka 2-0

1.44fair 1.33

BetBugs 55% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Ivashka's dominant hard-court set control (69.4% sets won) and Kirkin's fatigue from a three-setter yesterday make a straight-sets win highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Ivashka's superior recent hard-court form (73% win rate, dominant serve stats) and a straight-sets H2H win give him a clear edge over Kirkin, who has a heavier recent workload.
- Ivashka last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Kirkin 8-7 (53.3%) on hard courts.
- Ivashka last15 hard-court games won 58.3% vs Kirkin 52.6%.
- Ivashka first-serve points won 76.2% vs Kirkin 68.2% in last15 on hard.
- H2H: Ivashka won 6-2 6-4 on hard in 2020.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's efficient straight-set wins and superior form suggest a shorter match, likely under 21.5 games, despite Kirkin's occasional longer battles.
- Ivashka last15 hard-court matches averaged 19.5 games per match.
- Kirkin last15 hard-court matches averaged 23.8 games per match, but Ivashka's dominance reduces expected games.
- Ivashka's last two matches: 12 games each; Kirkin's last match: 30 games (three sets).
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's recent dominant wins and Kirkin's fatigue suggest Ivashka can cover a -3.5 game handicap in a likely straight-sets victory.
- Ivashka last15 hard-court average game margin: +3.2 games per match.
- Kirkin last15 hard-court average game margin: +0.5 games per match.
- Ivashka's last two matches: +7 and +9 game differentials.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostIlya Ivashka -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's strong serve and Kirkin's potential slow start after a tough three-setter could lead to a quick first set under 9.5 games.
- Ivashka's last two first sets: 6-2, 6-4; Kirkin's last first set: 6-7.
- Ivashka first-serve points won 76.2% on hard; Kirkin return points won 42.3% on hard.
- Ivashka's average first-set games in last15: 9.2; Kirkin's: 10.1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Ivashka's strong serving and recent quick starts make him likely to take the opening set against Kirkin, who has been less consistent early in matches.
- Ivashka last15 hard-court first-serve points won 76.2% vs Kirkin 68.2%.
- Ivashka won first set in 10 of last 15 matches; Kirkin won first set in 8 of last 15.
- Ivashka's last two matches: 6-2, 6-1 and 6-4, 6-1; Kirkin dropped first set 6-7 in last match.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Ivashka's recent dominance and Kirkin's fatigue from a three-setter yesterday make a straight-sets win for Ivashka the most likely outcome.
- Ivashka won in straight sets in 9 of last 11 wins; Kirkin lost in straight sets in 5 of last 7 losses.
- Ivashka last15 hard-court sets won 69.4% vs Kirkin 60%.
- Ivashka's last two matches were 2-0; Kirkin's last match went three sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostIlya Ivashka 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's ability to close matches in straight sets and Kirkin's fatigue point to a two-set match, supporting Under 2.5 sets.
- Ivashka won in straight sets in 9 of last 11 wins.
- Kirkin went to three sets in 7 of last 15 matches.
- Ivashka's last15 hard-court sets won 69.4% indicates strong set control.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's strong serving and Kirkin's lower return points won (42.3%) make tiebreaks less probable, supporting No tiebreak in match.
- Ivashka last15 hard-court tiebreak frequency: 3 in 15 matches (20%).
- Kirkin last15 hard-court tiebreak frequency: 4 in 15 matches (27%).
- Ivashka's dominant serve reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have decent ace rates, and with Ivashka's serving strength, the total aces should exceed 7.5 in a likely two-set match.
- Ivashka averages 4.6 aces per match in last15; Kirkin averages 3.6.
- Combined average aces: 8.2 per match.
- Ivashka's ace count in last two matches: 5 and 4; Kirkin's: 3 and 4.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the combined average suggests over 5.5 double faults is likely.
- Ivashka averages 3.4 double faults per match in last15; Kirkin averages 2.6.
- Combined average double faults: 6.0 per match.
- Ivashka's double faults in last two matches: 2 and 3; Kirkin's: 2 and 3.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Ivashka's odds imply an 87% win probability, but the model estimates only 72%, making this a poor value bet despite his strong form.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-4Ergi Kirkin#608vIlya Ivashka#402Oct 19, 2020

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ergi Kirkin

8W 7L

6-7(3) 6-4 6-2—Oskari Paldanius 6-4 7-6(1)—Kacper Szymkowiak

6-4 7-6(3)#600Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)—William Mirarchi

6-3 6-3#1203Valentin Vanta

6-3 7-5#842Hazem Naow

6-4 6-3#494Aziz Ouakaa

6-4 7-6(5)—Billy Blaydes

6-3 1-6 6-1#673Roger Pascual Ferra

1-6 6-4 6-3—Danil Panarin

1-6 6-2 6-1—Anas Bennour Dit Sahli

6-2 6-4#845Vuk Radjenovic

6-3 5-7 7-6(8)#350Anton Matusevich

6-2 7-5#654Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-2—Radovan Michalik

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

6-4 6-1#701Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#316Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#150Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#389Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#220Dan Added

6-1 6-0#494Aziz Ouakaa

6-2 3-1 ret.#433Maximus Jones

6-4 6-4#617Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-3—Agustin Siancha Borlenghi

3-6 6-3 6-4#620Pablo Martinez Gomez

7-6(5) 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(0) 4-6 6-4#285Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 3-6 6-2#334Hamish Stewart

6-1 6-2#459Juan Alejandro Hernandez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EKErgi KirkinKirkin

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Ergi Kirkin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In54.1%+6.5pp60.6%

1st Serve Won68.5%+7.7pp76.2%

2nd Serve Won49.8%+7.7pp57.5%

Aces / Match3.6+1.04.6

Double Faults / Match2.60.8 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.7%+1.0pp41.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.0%+4.5pp43.5%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+5.5pp55.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+4.0pp54.5%

Serve · 1–4

54.1%1st Serve In+6.5pp60.6%

68.5%1st Serve Won+7.7pp76.2%

49.8%2nd Serve Won+7.7pp57.5%

3.6Aces / Match+1.04.6

2.6Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

40.7%Return Pts Won+1.0pp41.7%

Pressure · 2–0

48.0%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp43.5%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp55.8%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+4.0pp54.5%

Ergi Kirkin

Ilya Ivashka

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ilya Ivashka @ 1.15

Head-to-Head

Ergi Kirkin

Ilya Ivashka

Stat Battle