GermanyHagen - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Elmer Moller #1902Jamie Mackenzie #931Germany0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Tue 4 Aug 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElmer Moller · 741 places

Elmer Moller

The 23-year-old Danish right-hander is 183 cm tall and has reached No. 102. Clay is his clearest performance surface in the public record, with a listed 143-69 career record.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #102
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jamie Mackenzie

Germany

The 18-year-old German right-hander is listed at No. 931, with a career high of No. 912. His listed 2026 record is 20-11, including 12-4 on clay; no reliable height or declared surface preference was found.

Current ranking: #931
Peak ranking: #912
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 10:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Jamie Mackenzie's recent H2H win and superior clay form give him an edge, but a 22-hour turnaround from the Bonn final raises fatigue concerns.

Back Mackenzie to win at 2.38 or over 2.5 sets at 2.10, while avoiding the 2-1 correct score due to recovery risks.

Context

Mackenzie's Bonn final ended on 2 August; his Hagen match is scheduled for 11:00 local time on 3 August.
- He is listed as a special exempt, confirming the tight scheduling.
- His last match was a 2h30m three-setter, adding to the physical toll.
Moller's last match was on 29 July, giving him four full days without competition.
- No reported injuries or fitness concerns for Moller in this period.
- The rest disparity could be decisive in longer rallies and a potential third set.
The H2H was on the same surface and in the same German clay swing.
- Mackenzie's first-serve points won (78%) and break-point conversion (67%) were key in that win.
- Moller's fresher legs may allow him to extend rallies and exploit a tired opponent.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Mackenzie's superior recent clay form and direct H2H win give him a structural edge, though fatigue from a quick turnaround tempers confidence.
- Mackenzie won the only H2H meeting 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 on clay just five days ago (29 July 2026).
- Mackenzie's last 15 clay record is 9-4 (69.2%) vs Moller's 8-7 (53.3%); Mackenzie holds a 60% overall win rate in last 15 matches.
- Mackenzie's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (Rodionov #136, Moller #190) and a 4-match win streak on clay before a tight loss.
- Moller's last 5 matches show 2 wins, 3 losses, including a retirement and a loss to #623 Basile, indicating inconsistent form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJamie MackenzieEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of their recent encounter and both players' tendency for three-setters make a match exceeding 21.5 games likely.
- Their H2H match had 23 games (6-1, 1-6, 6-3).
- Moller's last 15 matches average 21.4 games per match; Mackenzie's average 25.1 games per match.
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Moller 6 of last 15, Mackenzie 7 of last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moller's ability to keep matches close, even in losses, and the tight H2H margin suggest he will stay within 3.5 games.
- Moller's last 15 matches: average game differential -0.4; Mackenzie's: +1.4.
- In their H2H, Moller lost by 3 games (10-13).
- Moller has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonElmer Moller +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Despite the lopsided H2H first set, recent trends for both players show a pattern of competitive opening sets, favoring over 9.5 games.
- Moller's last 15 first sets average 9.7 games; Mackenzie's average 9.9 games.
- In their H2H, the first set had 7 games, but both players have had multiple 10+ game first sets recently.
- Mackenzie's last 5 first sets: 10, 10, 7, 10, 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Mackenzie's strong first-set record in recent clay matches and the H2H pattern suggest he can start quickly again, despite potential fatigue.
- Mackenzie won the first set 6-1 in their H2H meeting five days ago.
- Mackenzie's first-set win conversion rate is 78% career, and he has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Moller's first-set win conversion is 88% career, but he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJamie MackenzieEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players and the competitive H2H suggest a strong chance of a deciding set.
- Moller's last 15 matches: 6 three-setters (40%); Mackenzie's last 15: 7 three-setters (47%).
- Their only H2H went to three sets.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages (~51%), indicating closely matched contests.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mackenzie's strong serving and the combined ace count from their recent meeting make over 7.5 aces a solid expectation.
- Mackenzie averages 5.3 aces per match in last 15; Moller averages 1.8.
- In their H2H, Mackenzie hit 7 aces, Moller 2, totaling 9 aces.
- Mackenzie's ace rate is higher on clay (4.3 per match) and he has hit 7+ aces in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moller's high double fault count, combined with Mackenzie's moderate rate, pushes the total comfortably over 9.5 in a likely extended match.
- Moller averages 6.1 double faults per match in last 15; Mackenzie averages 3.9.
- Their H2H had 6 double faults total (3 each).
- Moller's double fault rate is consistently high, with 5+ in 10 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches for both players, especially Mackenzie, makes at least one tiebreak likely in a tight contest.
- Moller's last 15 matches: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (27%); Mackenzie's: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33%).
- Mackenzie has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Both players have a career tiebreak win rate around 50%, indicating close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-1 1-6 6-3Elmer Moller#190vJamie Mackenzie—Jul 29, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elmer Moller

8W 7L

6-1 1-6 6-3—Jamie Mackenzie

6-4 7-5#348Marko Topo

6-3 6-4#321Thomas Faurel

6-4 6-4#623Pierluigi Basile

7-6(9) 6-1#423Norbert Gombos

6-1 3-0 ret.#249Felix Balshaw

6-4 7-5#447Luca Potenza

6-2 3-6 6-4#122Zsombor Piros

7-5 6-2#262Andres Andrade

7-5 6-2#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#406Nerman Fatic

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-2 6-3#1Jannik Sinner

7-5 3-3 ret.#99Gabriel Diallo

6-4 7-6(4)#181Federico Cina

Jamie Mackenzie

9W 6L

6-4 5-7 6-4#883Max Dahlin 7-6(5) 6-4#136Jurij Rodionov

6-1 1-6 6-3#190Elmer Moller

7-6(4) 6-2#251Buvaysar Gadamauri

6-2 4-6 7-5#490Viktor Durasovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#769Tomas Farjat

7-6(4) 6-1#350Marc Polmans

4-6 6-1 7-6(3)#168Alex Bolt

6-3 6-3#561Ivan Ivanov

7-5 7-6(4)#410Jack Loge

7-6(3) 6-4#263Cezar Cretu

6-4 2-6 6-2#319Marvin Moeller

6-7(3) 6-4 7-5#758Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-0—Alessandro Mondazzi

4-6 6-1 10-2—Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EMElmer MollerMoller

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Jamie MackenzieMackenzieJM

Jamie Mackenzie carries the stronger recent form — Elmer Moller's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1561.1%+3.2pp57.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1564.4%+7.0pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1543.9%+8.5pp52.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.8+3.55.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/156.12.2 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1544.8%+6.5pp38.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1545.0%+3.8pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1558.3%+5.5pp63.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%—51.0%

Serve · 1–4

61.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp57.9%

64.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.0pp71.4%

43.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.5pp52.4%

1.8Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.55.3

6.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.2 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

44.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp38.3%

Pressure · 1–1

45.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.8pp41.2%

58.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+5.5pp63.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.0%

Elmer Moller

Jamie Mackenzie

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jamie Mackenzie

Jamie Mackenzie

Over 2.5

Over 9.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Elmer Moller

Jamie Mackenzie

Stat Battle