CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Duncan Chan #601Canada1Thiago Agustin Tirante #64Argentina2

Sets 3-6 · 6-1 · 6-7Tue 4 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Agustin Tirante · 537 places

Duncan Chan

Canada

Reliable public profile information was limited in the specified searches. Structured data lists Chan at No. 601.

Current ranking: #601
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

Tirante reached a career-high No. 58 in May 2026 after Masters 1000 runs in Madrid and Rome. Official ITF profile data lists hard court as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #64
Peak ranking: #58
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 10:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Agustin Tirante’s massive ranking edge (No. 64 vs.

No. 601) and dominant hard-court form make him a heavy favorite against Duncan Chan. Back Tirante on the moneyline (82% estimated probability) and under 21.5 total games (65% probability), as Chan’s struggles against top-100 opponents point to a straight-sets loss with few games. Avoid the -4.5 game handicap due to Tirante’s narrow recent margins on hard courts.

Context

Tirante defeated Daniil Medvedev (ranked 7) 6-3 6-2 on clay in May 2026.
- He beat Flavio Cobolli (ranked 9) 6-3 6-4 and Tommy Paul (ranked 21) 7-5 6-4 in recent clay events.
- His last-15 record is 9-6 (60%), but all wins came against opponents ranked inside the top 200, unlike Chan's competition.
Chan lost to Dane Sweeny (ranked 121) 6-4 6-1 and to Shintaro Mochizuki (ranked 114) 6-2 2-6 6-4 in July 2026.
- Against Hugo Gaston (ranked 90), he won in three sets but needed a comeback after losing the first set 2-6.
- In his last 15 matches, Chan's games-won percentage on hard courts is just 49.6%, and his total points won is 49.7%.
Tirante's career hard-court record is 73-27 (73%), including ATP-level wins; Chan's is 20-14 (58.8%) mostly at ITF/Futures level.
- In 2026, Tirante is 7-6 on hard courts with wins over Rinderknech and Medvedev; Chan is 8-6 on hard courts but against weaker fields.
- Tirante's last-15 first-serve points won is 73.9%, significantly higher than Chan's 67.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Tirante's superior ranking, experience, and proven ability against top players give him a dominant edge over Chan, who has struggled against opponents ranked outside the top 100.
- Tirante is ranked #64 vs Chan #601, a massive 537-place gap.
- Tirante has a 60% win rate in last 15 matches, including wins over top-10 players (Medvedev, Cobolli, Paul) on clay, while Chan's last 15 win rate is 53.3% against much lower-ranked opponents.
- Tirante's career hard-court win rate is 73-27 (73%), while Chan's is 20-14 (58.8%), and Tirante has more experience at ATP level.
- Chan's last 15 hard-court stats show 49.6% games won and 49.7% total points won, indicating a marginal level, while Tirante's overall last 15 stats are 52.2% games won and 50.8% points won against stronger competition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Agustin TiranteEstimated chance82%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Given the ranking gap and Tirante's ability to dominate weaker opponents, a straight-sets win with relatively few games is likely.
- Chan's last 15 matches average 23.5 total games, but against top-100 opponents (Gaston, Sweeny) he averaged 18.5 games.
- Tirante's last 15 matches average 26.3 total games, but on hard courts this year his matches have been shorter (e.g., 18 games vs Rinderknech, 20 vs Medvedev).
- Chan has lost in straight sets in 5 of his last 15 matches, and Tirante has won in straight sets in 6 of his last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tirante's ability to win comfortably against weaker opposition suggests he will cover the -3.5 game handicap.
- In Tirante's straight-set wins over lower-ranked opponents (e.g., Ofner, Stewart), he covered -3.5 games easily.
- Chan's average game differential in losses to top-100 players is -6.5 games.
- Tirante's last 15 hard-court matches show a +2.5 game differential per match, while Chan's is -0.5.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThiago Agustin Tirante -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tirante's ability to dominate early in sets suggests a relatively short first set, though confidence is low due to small sample size.
- In Tirante's last 15 matches, the first set has averaged 9.2 games, with 8 of 15 first sets finishing under 9.5 games.
- Chan's first sets in his last 15 have averaged 9.5 games, but against top-100 opponents, the average drops to 8.0 games.
- Tirante's strong first-serve points won (73.9%) often leads to quick holds and early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Tirante's strong serving and higher first-set win rate against better competition suggest he will start fast and take the opening set.
- Tirante's first-set win conversion rate is 86% in his career, while Chan's is 95%, but Chan's sample is smaller and against weaker opponents.
- In his last 15 matches, Tirante has won the first set in 10 of 15 matches (67%), while Chan has won the first set in 8 of 15 (53%).
- Tirante's first-serve points won in last 15 is 73.9%, significantly higher than Chan's 67.4%, giving him an edge in holding serve early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Agustin TiranteEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Tirante's consistency and Chan's inability to challenge top-100 players in sets suggest a comfortable straight-sets victory for Tirante.
- Tirante has won 6 of his last 15 matches in straight sets, while Chan has lost 5 of his last 15 in straight sets.
- Chan's deciding-set win rate is 73%, but he often needs three sets against lower-ranked players; against top-100 opponents he has not forced a decider.
- Tirante's break-point save rate in last 15 is 68.1%, making it hard for Chan to steal a set.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostThiago Agustin Tirante 2-0Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to end in two sets given Tirante's dominance and Chan's struggles against higher-ranked players.
- Tirante has won in straight sets in 6 of his last 15 matches, and Chan has lost in straight sets in 5 of his last 15.
- Chan's three-set matches often come against opponents ranked outside the top 200; against top-100 players he has been swept.
- Tirante's first-serve points won (73.9%) and break-point save rate (68.1%) in last 15 indicate he can close out sets efficiently.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Tirante's serving advantage and Chan's difficulty in close sets against strong opponents, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Tirante has played a tiebreak in only 4 of his last 15 matches (27%), while Chan has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 (33%).
- Chan's tiebreak win rate is 50%, but he rarely forces tiebreaks against top-100 players.
- Tirante's first-serve points won (73.9%) and break-point conversion (41.2%) suggest he can break serve without needing tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tirante's strong serve and Chan's moderate return ability make over 8.5 aces a plausible outcome, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Tirante averages 7.1 aces per match in his last 15, while Chan averages 4.1.
- Combined, their average aces per match is 11.2, but against weaker returners, Tirante's ace count could rise.
- Chan's return points won is 40.1%, which is decent but may not prevent Tirante from hitting aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is just above 6.5, making over a marginal call with low confidence.
- Chan averages 3.7 double faults per match in his last 15, and Tirante averages 3.1.
- Combined average is 6.8, slightly above the line.
- Both players have double-fault rates around 3-4 per match, and pressure could increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Duncan Chan

8W 7L

2-6 7-5 6-3#90Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-1#121Dane Sweeny

6-2 2-6 6-4#114Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#238James McCabe

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#502Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 6-4#451Alafia Ayeni

6-4 6-2#325Daniel Milavsky

7-6(5) 6-3#535Timo Legout

2-6 6-4 3-0 ret.—Unknown Player

6-4 6-3#234Braden Shick

6-2 4-6 6-2#662Ryan Colby

7-5 7-6(6)#486Ozan Baris

7-6(3) 6-2#525Pavle Marinkov

3-6 6-1 6-4#450Jie Cui

6-4 6-2#169Daniil Glinka

Thiago Agustin Tirante

9W 6L

7-5 3-6 6-4#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4#124Sebastian Ofner

7-5 6-3 6-4#55Fabian Marozsan

6-1 7-6(7)#112Toby Samuel

7-5 6-2#331Hamish Stewart

7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

4-6 7-6(4) 6-1 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-3 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-0#129Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-1#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-3 6-2#7Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-4#9Flavio Cobolli

6-3 7-5#39Cameron Norrie

6-7(5) 6-4 6-0#198Gianluca Cadenasso

7-5 7-6(5)#39Cameron Norrie

7-5 6-4#21Tommy Paul

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DCDuncan ChanChan

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Thiago Agustin TiranteTiranteTT

Thiago Agustin Tirante carries the stronger recent form — Duncan Chan's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.4%+4.0pp58.4%

1st Serve Won67.4%+6.5pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won45.7%+9.2pp54.9%

Aces / Match4.1+3.07.1

Double Faults / Match3.70.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.1%+4.4pp35.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.6%+1.6pp41.2%

Break Pts Saved54.6%+13.5pp68.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+1.5pp50.8%

Serve · 1–4

62.4%1st Serve In+4.0pp58.4%

67.4%1st Serve Won+6.5pp73.9%

45.7%2nd Serve Won+9.2pp54.9%

4.1Aces / Match+3.07.1

3.7Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

40.1%Return Pts Won+4.4pp35.7%

Pressure · 0–2

39.6%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp41.2%

54.6%Break Pts Saved+13.5pp68.1%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.8%

Duncan Chan

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Under 21.5

Thiago Agustin Tirante 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Duncan Chan

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Stat Battle