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Predictions graded

Aryna Sabalenka #1Belarus2Moyuka Uchijima #107Japan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 4 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAryna Sabalenka · 106 places

Aryna Sabalenka

Belarus

World No. 1 and a four-time Grand Slam champion. Her power-serving, aggressive game has produced her strongest sustained results on hard courts.

Current ranking: #1
Peak ranking: #1 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Moyuka Uchijima

Japan

Japanese right-hander. Reliable current public profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and physical data was limited in the specified searches; her Toronto opening-round win is the clearest current context.

Current ranking: #107
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Aug 2026, 10:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favorite against Moyuka Uchijima, boasting superior hard-court form and a dominant H2H.

The best betting angle is under 17.5 total games, offering a 12.4-point edge, as Sabalenka's serve and return should lead to a quick straight-sets win.

Context

Sabalenka is 10-5 in her last 15 matches, with 8 of those wins coming in straight sets.
- Her last five wins were all in straight sets against players ranked outside the top 10, including Ostapenko (29) and Alexandrova (19).
- She has won 68.6% of sets in this 15-match window, showing strong set-level control.
Uchijima's last five hard-court wins: Bucsa (40), Sakatsume (138), Kinoshita (222), Kuramochi (368), and a qualifying match.
- She lost to Inglis (150) in three sets, failing to close out a tight second-set tiebreak.
- Her overall last-15 record is 6-9, with a 40% win rate, highlighting inconsistency against stronger fields.
Sabalenka won 6-2, 6-2 in the 2024 French Open second round, converting 4 of 7 break points.
- She won 76% of first-serve points and 72% of second-serve points, while Uchijima won only 54% and 36% respectively.
- Uchijima managed just 10 winners to Sabalenka's 27, and the match was over in 16 games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aryna Sabalenka

1.07fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Sabalenka's elite hard-court pedigree and dominant H2H justify her heavy favorite status, though the odds offer no positive edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aryna Sabalenka

1.12fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Sabalenka's 89% career first-set win conversion and dominant H2H first set make her a strong favorite, but the odds imply an even higher probability than our model estimate.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Sabalenka's set dominance and Uchijima's struggle to win sets against top players point to a straight-set victory.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Sabalenka's dominance and Uchijima's low first-set win rate suggest a straight-sets win, but the odds are slightly shorter than our model's fair price.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Sabalenka's elite hard-court pedigree, superior recent form, and dominant H2H make her a heavy favorite.
- Sabalenka career hard-court win rate 71.6%, 319 wins; Uchijima 58.1% overall, 164 hard-court wins.
- Sabalenka last 15 overall: 66.7% win rate, 52.5% total points won; Uchijima 40% win rate, 49.4% total points won.
- H2H: Sabalenka won 6-2 6-2 on clay in 2024, dominating serve and return points.
- Sabalenka first-set win conversion 89% career; Uchijima first-set win conversion 92% but against much weaker opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAryna SabalenkaEstimated chance92%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sabalenka's ability to dominate on serve and return should keep the match short, with few games.
- Sabalenka last 15 hard-court matches: average 19.2 games per match (based on 5 matches).
- Uchijima last 15 hard-court matches: average 23.2 games per match, but against weaker opponents.
- H2H had only 16 games.
- Sabalenka's first-serve points won 67.3% last 15; Uchijima's return points won 45.2% last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 19.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sabalenka's serve dominance and Uchijima's weak return suggest a quick first set with few games.
- Sabalenka last 15: average 9.2 games per set; Uchijima 9.6 games per set.
- H2H first set had 8 games.
- Sabalenka's first-serve points won 67.3% last 15; Uchijima's return points won 45.2% last 15.
- Uchijima's break point save rate 47.6% last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to set 1, Sabalenka's overall superiority should lead to a low-game second set.
- Sabalenka last 15: average 9.2 games per set; Uchijima 9.6 games per set.
- H2H second set had 8 games.
- Sabalenka's second-serve points won 48% last 15; Uchijima's second-serve points won 42.5% last 15.
- Uchijima's double faults per match 4.9 last 15.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Sabalenka's strong start tendency and Uchijima's low first-set win rate make Sabalenka the clear favorite for set 1.
- Sabalenka first-set win conversion 89% career.
- Sabalenka last 15: won first set in 10 of 15 matches (66.7%).
- Uchijima last 15: won first set in 6 of 15 matches (40%).
- H2H: Sabalenka won first set 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAryna SabalenkaEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Sabalenka's set dominance and Uchijima's struggle to win sets against top players point to a straight-set victory.
- Sabalenka last 15: 68.6% sets won; Uchijima 44.7% sets won.
- Sabalenka hard-court last 5: 80% win rate, 75% sets won; Uchijima hard-court last 5: 80% win rate but against lower-ranked opponents.
- H2H was a straight-set win for Sabalenka.
- Sabalenka first-set win conversion 89% career.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAryna Sabalenka 2-0Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sabalenka's serve dominance and low tiebreak frequency in her matches make a tiebreak unlikely.
- Sabalenka tiebreak win percentage 62% career; Uchijima 53% career.
- Sabalenka last 15: 2 tiebreaks in 35 sets (5.7%); Uchijima last 15: 4 tiebreaks in 38 sets (10.5%).
- H2H had no tiebreaks.
- Sabalenka's first-serve points won 67.3% last 15 reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate ace counts, and the combined average suggests over 6.5 is plausible.
- Sabalenka last 15: 4.8 aces per match; Uchijima 2.4 aces per match.
- Sabalenka hard-court last 5: 3.8 aces per match; Uchijima hard-court last 5: 3.8 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match: 7.2.
- H2H had 6 aces total (Sabalenka 2, Uchijima 4).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uchijima's high double fault rate makes over 7.5 likely, even with Sabalenka's low count.
- Sabalenka last 15: 2.5 double faults per match; Uchijima 4.9 double faults per match.
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.4.
- Uchijima hard-court last 5: 5.8 double faults per match.
- Sabalenka's double fault rate is low, but Uchijima's high rate pushes the total up.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-2Aryna Sabalenka#1vMoyuka Uchijima#107May 30, 2024

1 total meetings

Aryna Sabalenka

10W 5L

6-2 7-6(2)#13Naomi Osaka

6-4 6-4#29Jelena Ostapenko

6-1 7-6(9)#47Mccartney Kessler

6-2 6-3#146Teodora Kostovic

6-4 6-7(4) 6-0#3Jessica Pegula

2-6 7-6(2) 6-4#41Nikola Bartunkova

6-4 6-4#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

3-6 7-5 6-0#18Diana Shnaider

7-5 6-3#13Naomi Osaka

6-0 7-5#61Daria Kasatkina

7-5 6-2#98Elsa Jacquemot

6-4 6-2#59Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

2-6 6-3 7-5#17Sorana Cirstea

6-2 6-3#25Barbora Krejcikova

2-6 6-2 7-6(6)#32Hailey Baptiste

Moyuka Uchijima

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#40Cristina Bucsa

6-2 6-4#138Himeno Sakatsume

6-4 6-7(9) 6-3#150Maddison Inglis

2-6 6-4 7-5#222Hayu Kinoshita

6-1 6-4#368Miho Kuramochi

7-5 6-4#77Anna Bondar

6-2 6-4#161Elina Avanesyan

6-4 6-7(2) 7-5#283Irene Burillo

5-7 6-2 7-5#44Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 3-6 7-5#485Esther Adeshina

3-6 6-0 4-1 ret.#113Claire Liu

6-2 6-4#68Alycia Parks

7-6(3) 3-6 6-0#169Kaja Juvan

6-3 6-2#166Rebeka Masarova

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#64Tereza Valentova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ASAryna SabalenkaSabalenka

Last 15

7–0

9 core stats · 2 even

Moyuka UchijimaUchijimaMU

Aryna Sabalenka carries the stronger recent form — Moyuka Uchijima's route runs through break pts converted.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In65.3%+8.0pp57.3%

1st Serve Won67.3%+5.3pp62.0%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+5.5pp42.5%

Aces / Match4.8+2.42.4

Double Faults / Match2.52.4 fewer4.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.5%—45.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted48.4%—48.6%

Break Pts Saved60.9%+13.3pp47.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+3.1pp49.4%

Serve · 5–0

65.3%1st Serve In+8.0pp57.3%

67.3%1st Serve Won+5.3pp62.0%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp42.5%

4.8Aces / Match+2.42.4

2.5Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.5%Return Pts Won—45.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

48.4%Break Pts Converted—48.6%

60.9%Break Pts Saved+13.3pp47.6%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+3.1pp49.4%

Aryna Sabalenka

Moyuka Uchijima

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 17.5

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Aryna Sabalenka

Moyuka Uchijima

Stat Battle