Tomasz Berkieta vs Facundo Mena: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Mena's superior career hard court win rate and better break point conversion in recent form give him a slight edge, though Berkieta's home wildcard and similar recent overall stats keep it close.
- Mena has a career clay win rate of 57% vs Berkieta's 50.7%, but this match is on hard court where Mena's career hard win rate is 78/157 (49.7%) vs Berkieta's 31/75 (41.3%).
- In the last 15 matches overall, Mena's return points won is 38.9% vs Berkieta's 40.7%, but Mena's break point conversion is 39.3% vs Berkieta's 31%.
- Mena's last 15 hard court sample is small (3 matches) but shows 11 aces per match and 77.8% first serve points won, indicating strong serving on hard courts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFacundo MenaEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Berkieta's matches are typically tight, and with home advantage, he is likely to cover the +3.5 game handicap even in a loss.
- Berkieta's last 15 matches: average game differential is -0.2, with 12 of 15 matches within 3.5 games.
- Mena's last 15 matches: average game differential is +0.3, but 10 of 15 matches were within 3.5 games.
- Berkieta's home wildcard and recent competitive form suggest he can keep it close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTomasz Berkieta +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Mena's matches tend to be longer, and both players' recent form suggests a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Berkieta's last 15 matches average 19.0 total games per match, but 7 of 15 went over 21.5 games.
- Mena's last 15 matches average 23.1 total games per match, with 9 of 15 going over 21.5 games.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 51%, indicating competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of recent first sets for both players have been competitive, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- In Berkieta's last 15 matches, 10 of 15 first sets had 10 or more games.
- In Mena's last 15 matches, 9 of 15 first sets had 10 or more games.
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages (71%), suggesting tight service games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly less likely to go over 9.5, but still above 50% for both, supporting a lean toward the over.
- Berkieta's last 15 matches: 8 of 15 second sets had 10 or more games.
- Mena's last 15 matches: 9 of 15 second sets had 10 or more games.
- Both players have similar second serve points won percentages (Berkieta 51.3%, Mena 47.7%), which could lead to breaks but also tight sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have strong first set conversion rates historically, but recent form is mixed; Mena's slightly better overall edge gives him a marginal advantage in set 1.
- Mena's first set win conversion career is 88%, but recent form shows he lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Berkieta's first set win conversion career is 85%, and he won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- No H2H data to indicate a pattern.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFacundo MenaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mena's high ace count on hard courts, even in a small sample, combined with Berkieta's moderate ace rate, makes over 10.5 aces likely.
- Mena averages 6.8 aces per match in last 15, and 11.0 on hard courts (small sample).
- Berkieta averages 3.5 aces per match in last 15, all on clay.
- Combined average aces per match: 10.3, but Mena's hard court ace rate suggests potential for more.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tiebreak in roughly 40% of recent matches and similar serve/return stats, a tiebreak is likely in this competitive matchup.
- Berkieta's last 15 matches: 5 of 15 had a tiebreak.
- Mena's last 15 matches: 6 of 15 had a tiebreak.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50% (Berkieta 49%, Mena 55%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is near the line, and both players' low first serve percentages could lead to more double faults in a tight match.
- Both players average 3.7 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 7.4, right at the line.
- Mena's first serve percentage is 56.1%, Berkieta's 52.8%, indicating potential for more double faults under pressure.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Tomasz Berkieta #570Poland2Facundo Mena #330Argentina0

Player Profiles

Tomasz Berkieta

Facundo Mena

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Tomasz Berkieta +3.5

Over 21.5

Facundo Mena

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Tomasz Berkieta

Facundo Mena

Stat Battle