PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Michele Ribecai #267Italy2Iliyan Radulov #6150

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Mon 3 Aug 2026, 13:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichele Ribecai · 348 places

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 259 on 22 June 2026. The ITF lists carpet as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #267
Peak ranking: #259 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Iliyan Radulov

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 432 on 30 June 2025. Most of his published career record is on clay, but no reliable profile explicitly states a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #615
Peak ranking: #432 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 187 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Ribecai is the favorite but his recent clay-heavy form and hard-court transition make the short odds risky.

Radulov's competitiveness and close losses suggest he can cover the +3.5 game handicap, and the match is likely to go over 21.5 total games given both players' tendency for three-setters. Avoid backing Ribecai in the match-winner or set-one markets; instead, focus on the over total games and Radulov +3.5 games.

Context

Ribecai's last 15 matches are all on clay (5-10 record, 49.6% games won).
- His last hard-court match was over two months ago, and his 2026 hard-court record is 8-5.
- Career hard-court win rate is 70.6%, but that long-term baseline may not reflect current form.
Radulov's last match was a 6-3 6-2 loss on hard court on 19 July.
- His last six hard-court matches: 3-3 record, 49.2% games won, 42.9% sets won.
- Three of his four recent losses were by four games or fewer, indicating he stays close.
Ribecai's last 15 matches: 8 three-setters (53.3%), with an average of 24.3 games per match.
- His deciding-set win rate is only 38% career, suggesting vulnerability if the match goes deep.
- Radulov's last 15 matches average 21.7 games, with 5 three-setters (33.3%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Michele Ribecai

1.44fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Ribecai's superior career hard-court win percentage and higher ranking give him a structural edge, but the model estimate is below the implied probability, so no positive edge exists.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Michele Ribecai

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Ribecai's career first-set win conversion is 84%, but his recent form shows only 5 first-set wins in last 15, making the 1.50 odds too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Ribecai's superior career hard-court win percentage and higher ranking (267 vs 615) give him a structural edge, despite recent clay-heavy form; Radulov's hard-court sample is small and mixed.
- Ribecai has a 62% career win rate and 84% first-set win conversion, indicating strong front-running ability.
- Radulov's last 15 overall record is 46.7% (7-8), with a 41.2% sets-won rate and 47.4% games-won rate.
- Ribecai's last 15 on clay (all matches) shows 33.3% win rate, but his career hard-court record is 48-20 (70.6%) across all levels.
- Radulov's last 6 hard-court matches: 3-3 record, 49.2% games won, 42.9% sets won, with a 52.1% break-point save rate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMichele RibecaiEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for three-set contests and average match lengths above 21 games, the total is likely to exceed 21.5 in a competitive first-round match.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches average 24.3 games per match (365 total games / 15 matches).
- Radulov's last 15 matches average 21.7 games per match (325 total games / 15 matches).
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches in recent form: Ribecai 8 of 15, Radulov 5 of 15.
- Radulov's last 6 hard-court matches average 21 games, but his clay matches average 22.1, indicating potential for longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Radulov's matches are typically close, and even in losses he often stays within 3 games, making +3.5 a solid cover in most scenarios.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches: average game differential per match is -0.27 (181 won, 184 lost).
- Radulov's last 15 matches: average game differential per match is -0.73 (154 won, 171 lost).
- In Radulov's 7 wins, he covered +3.5 easily; in his 8 losses, 5 were by 3 games or fewer.
- Ribecai's 5 wins were by an average of 6.4 games, but his 10 losses were by an average of 3.1 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostIliyan Radulov +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of recent first sets for both players have reached at least 10 games, indicating a competitive start likely to go over 9.5.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches: 10 of 15 first sets had 10+ games.
- Radulov's last 15 matches: 9 of 15 first sets had 10+ games.
- Radulov's last 6 hard-court matches: 4 of 6 first sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 62-63%, suggesting holds are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly more than half of recent second sets have gone over 9.5, making it a marginal lean, but the low confidence reflects the variability.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches: 9 of 15 second sets had 10+ games.
- Radulov's last 15 matches: 8 of 15 second sets had 10+ games.
- Radulov's last 6 hard-court matches: 3 of 6 second sets had 10+ games.
- Both players have similar second-serve points won (Ribecai 50.9%, Radulov 47.8% overall), which can lead to breaks but also tight sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ribecai's high career first-set conversion and slightly better serve/return metrics in recent matches give him a moderate edge to take the opening set.
- Ribecai's career first-set win conversion is 84%, suggesting he often starts matches strongly.
- Radulov's last 15 overall first-serve points won is 62.3%, but his return points won is only 41.5%.
- Ribecai's last 15 first-serve points won is 63.4%, and he saves 60.7% of break points.
- Radulov's last 6 hard-court matches show a 61.6% first-serve points won and 48.8% break-point conversion.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMichele RibecaiEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ribecai's high rate of three-set matches and the overall closeness in points won suggest a decent chance of a deciding set, though Radulov's lower three-set frequency tempers the probability.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches: 8 went to three sets (53.3%).
- Radulov's last 15 matches: 5 went to three sets (33.3%).
- Ribecai's deciding-set win rate is only 38% career, but Radulov's is 59%, suggesting if it goes three, Radulov has an edge.
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (~49%), indicating closely matched overall.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low-ace hitters, with combined averages far below 5.5, making the under a strong lean.
- Ribecai averages 1.2 aces per match in last 15, with a career total of 210 aces in 237 matches (0.89 per match).
- Radulov averages 1.7 aces per match in last 15, with a career total of 239 aces in 189 matches (1.26 per match).
- Combined average aces per match: 2.9, well under 5.5.
- Neither player is a big server; first-serve percentages are around 60% with moderate win rates.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate in recent matches exceeds 5.5, driven by Radulov's high average, making over 5.5 likely.
- Ribecai averages 2.8 double faults per match in last 15, career 444 in 237 matches (1.87 per match).
- Radulov averages 3.8 double faults per match in last 15, career 352 in 189 matches (1.86 per match).
- Combined recent average: 6.6 double faults per match.
- Radulov's clay double-fault rate is 4.1 per match, hard-court 3.3, but overall high.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance60%

Michele Ribecai

5W 10L

3-6 7-5 6-2#276Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 6-1 6-3#143Hugo Dellien

6-1 6-2#315Gonzalo Villanueva

4-6 7-5 6-4#258Matej Dodig

6-3 6-3#225Franco Roncadelli

7-6(4) 6-4#734Daniele Rapagnetta

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#509Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-1 6-4#107Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-6(5) 6-2#200Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-1#214Henri Squire

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#265Franco Agamenone

6-4 3-6 7-6(2)#129Pablo Llamas Ruiz

5-7 6-3 6-4#438Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-4 6-1#378Ioannis Xilas

Iliyan Radulov

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#422Cyril Vandermeersch

6-4 6-4#401Ilya Ivashka

6-2 6-2#407Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-4 6-4#287Yanki Erel

6-3 3-6 6-4#331Hamish Stewart

2-6 6-2 6-3#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

6-3 6-2#280Matteo Martineau

6-3 6-4#836Stefano D'Agostino

6-3 7-6(5)—Leonardo Malgaroli

6-4 6-3#526Luca Staeheli

6-3 2-6 6-3#765Mariano Kestelboim

6-4 6-3—Robert Watzka

7-5 6-3#461Sergi Perez Contri

7-6(4) 6-3#338Oriol Roca Batalla

7-5 4-6 7-5#516Alex Marti Pujolras

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMichele RibecaiRibecai

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Iliyan RadulovRadulovIR

Michele Ribecai carries the stronger recent form — Iliyan Radulov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.3%+0.9pp60.2%

1st Serve Won63.4%+1.1pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+3.1pp47.8%

Aces / Match1.2+0.51.7

Double Faults / Match2.81.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.9%+1.6pp41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.1%+3.6pp40.5%

Break Pts Saved60.7%+8.6pp52.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.4%—49.0%

Serve · 3–2

59.3%1st Serve In+0.9pp60.2%

63.4%1st Serve Won+1.1pp62.3%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp47.8%

1.2Aces / Match+0.51.7

2.8Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won+1.6pp41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

44.1%Break Pts Converted+3.6pp40.5%

60.7%Break Pts Saved+8.6pp52.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.4%Total Pts Won—49.0%

Michele Ribecai

Iliyan Radulov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Michele Ribecai 2-1

Michele Ribecai

Michele Ribecai

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Michele Ribecai

Iliyan Radulov

Stat Battle