CanadaATP MontrealFinished
Predictions gradedReached a career-high ranking of No. 153 in May 2024. His recorded lower-level finals and both singles titles are concentrated on hard courts.
Reached a career-high ranking of No. 55 in May 2026. His career title record is concentrated on clay courts.
Pre-match view
Alexis Galarneau holds a moderate edge over Vit Kopriva thanks to superior recent form (10-5 vs. 5-10), hard-court surface fit, and home advantage.
Kopriva’s lack of recent hard-court matches and transatlantic travel raise adaptation concerns, while Galarneau’s strong serving and break-point conversion on hard courts make him the favorite. The match is likely to be close, with value on Galarneau to win and over 22.5 total games.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
Market 54.6% · BetBugs 60%
Both players average over 24 games per match in recent windows, and their career deciding-set tendencies increase the likelihood of a close, extended contest.
Market 54.6% · BetBugs 58%
Galarneau's superior recent overall form and hard-court surface fit give him a moderate edge over Kopriva, who has no recent hard-court matches and a poor last-15 record.
Market 23.5% · BetBugs 40%
Galarneau's recent hard-court form (2-1, both wins in three sets) and Kopriva's lack of hard-court data make a three-set Galarneau win more likely than the odds imply.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
In 6 matches where Alexis Galarneau was predicted to win, he has won all 6. The average estimated probability across these matches was 66.7%, with a historical range from 58% to 78%. The current prediction of 58% sits at the lower bound of this range, matching the lowest previous probability at which he still succeeded.
Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.
Last 15
9 core stats · 1 even
Alexis Galarneau carries the stronger recent form — Vit Kopriva's route runs through pressure.
