PolandGrodzisk Mazowiecki - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Ergi Kirkin #595Türkiye2Kacper Szymkowiak #719Poland0

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Sun 2 Aug 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageErgi Kirkin · 124 places

Ergi Kirkin

Türkiye

Kirkin reached career-high No. 251 on 6 May 2024. The supplied data and a recent player profile list him at No. 595; public results show clay is his most-played career surface.

Current ranking: #595
Peak ranking: #251 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Kacper Szymkowiak

Poland

The ATP rankings page listed Szymkowiak at No. 719 and records career-high No. 709 on 29 September 2025. The 21-year-old Polish right-hander is listed at 188 cm; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #719
Peak ranking: #709 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 00:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Kacper Szymkowiak’s superior recent form (9-6 last 15) and return game (45.6% return points won) give him a slight edge over Ergi Kirkin (7-8, 40.2% return points won) in this Challenger qualifier.

Back Szymkowiak at 2.38 for value, and consider over 21.5 total games given both players’ tendency for tight sets. Avoid Kirkin at short odds due to his poor overall form.

Context

Kirkin last15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7% win rate).
- Kirkin last15 on hard: 4-2 (66.7% win rate) from 6 matches.
- His return points won on hard (41.6%) is slightly better than his overall 40.2%.
Szymkowiak last15 by surface: 10 clay, 5 indoor hard, 0 outdoor hard.
- His overall last15 record is 9-6 (60%), but surface-specific performance is unknown.
- Career hard-court win rate is 63.6% (14-8), but sample is small and not recent.
Szymkowiak last15 return points won: 45.6% (425/931).
- Kirkin last15 return points won: 40.2% (434/1080).
- Kirkin's second-serve points won is 49.2%, leaving room for Szymkowiak to attack.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.38
The read
Szymkowiak's superior recent overall form and return game give him a slight edge, despite Kirkin's better hard-court record in a small sample.
- Szymkowiak last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Kirkin 7-8 (46.7%)
- Szymkowiak last15 return points won 45.6% vs Kirkin 40.2%
- Szymkowiak last15 total points won 52.4% vs Kirkin 50.1%
- Kirkin last15 hard record 4-2 (66.7%) but small sample; Szymkowiak no hard matches in window
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKacper SzymkowiakEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to play tight opening sets, with Kirkin's hard-court matches averaging over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Kirkin last15 set1 average 9.7 games (145 games / 15 sets)
- Szymkowiak last15 set1 average 9.1 games (137 games / 15 sets)
- Both players have 60%+ of set1s going over 9.5 in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kirkin's matches consistently exceed 21.5 games, and Szymkowiak's competitive form suggests a close contest, pushing total games over.
- Kirkin last15 average total games per match 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
- Szymkowiak last15 average total games per match 19.3 (290 games / 15 matches)
- Kirkin last15 hard matches average 22.7 games; Szymkowiak no hard data but clay matches average 18.9
- Both players have competitive recent matches with many tight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kirkin's hard-court set2s tend to be longer, and Szymkowiak's competitive nature should keep the second set close.
- Kirkin last15 set2 average 9.5 games (143 games / 15 sets)
- Szymkowiak last15 set2 average 8.9 games (133 games / 15 sets)
- Kirkin hard-court set2 average 10.2 games in last 6 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Szymkowiak's recent momentum and higher first-set win rate in the last 15 matches give him a narrow edge in set 1.
- Szymkowiak last15 first set win rate ~60% (9 of 15 matches won, most in straight sets)
- Kirkin last15 first set win rate ~47% (7 of 15 matches won, often needing comebacks)
- Szymkowiak career first set win conversion 78% vs Kirkin 88%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKacper SzymkowiakEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Szymkowiak's high double fault rate (3.9 per match) and Kirkin's moderate rate combine to exceed 6.5 in most matches.
- Kirkin last15 double faults per match 2.6, Szymkowiak 3.9, combined 6.5
- Szymkowiak last15 clay double faults per match 4.0, hard unknown but likely similar
- Both players have first serve percentages below 62%, leading to more double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are just below 7.5, but hard-court conditions and potential for longer match could push total over.
- Kirkin last15 aces per match 4.1, Szymkowiak 3.2, combined 7.3
- Kirkin hard-court aces per match 3.2, Szymkowiak no hard data but career 2.1 aces per match
- Both players have moderate ace counts, but hard courts may boost totals slightly
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Ergi Kirkin

7W 8L

6-4 7-6(3)#679Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)—William Mirarchi

6-3 6-3#1203Valentin Vanta

6-3 7-5#842Hazem Naow

6-4 6-3#485Aziz Ouakaa

6-4 7-6(5)—Billy Blaydes

6-3 1-6 6-1#729Roger Pascual Ferra

1-6 6-4 6-3—Danil Panarin

1-6 6-2 6-1—Anas Bennour Dit Sahli

6-2 6-4#845Vuk Radjenovic

6-3 5-7 7-6(8)#342Anton Matusevich

6-2 7-5#652Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-2—Radovan Michalik

6-4 6-3#783Sora Fukuda

6-1 7-6(6)#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

Kacper Szymkowiak

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#440Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-3#531Alexander Weis

6-2 6-2#1393Stefan Micov

6-4 3-6 7-5#865Alan Wazny

6-4 6-1#900Niklas Guttau

2-0 ret.—Adam Kaczmarek

6-1 6-3—Filip Czyrek

6-4 4-6 6-2#479Alexandr Binda

6-3 7-6(3)—Egor Pleshivtsev

7-5 6-2#801Nicholas David Ionel

5-0 ret.#411Mees Rottgering

6-4 6-1#501Dan Martin

6-1 7-6(3)—Daniil Kakhniuk

6-3 7-6(3)—Drew Van Orderlain

6-7(2) 6-2 10-6—Daniil Kakhniuk

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EKErgi KirkinKirkin

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Kacper SzymkowiakSzymkowiakKS

Ergi Kirkin carries the stronger recent form — Kacper Szymkowiak's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In54.2%+7.4pp61.6%

1st Serve Won68.8%—68.9%

2nd Serve Won49.2%+5.3pp43.9%

Aces / Match4.1+0.93.2

Double Faults / Match2.61.3 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.2%+5.4pp45.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.9%—45.1%

Break Pts Saved58.8%+2.1pp56.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+2.3pp52.4%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

54.2%1st Serve In+7.4pp61.6%

68.8%1st Serve Won—68.9%

49.2%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp43.9%

4.1Aces / Match+0.93.2

2.6Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

40.2%Return Pts Won+5.4pp45.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

44.9%Break Pts Converted—45.1%

58.8%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp56.7%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+2.3pp52.4%