CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Sho Shimabukuro #94Japan2Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #144Norway0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Sat 1 Aug 2026, 17:45 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–433%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSho Shimabukuro · 50 places

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

Shimabukuro reached a career-high No. 89 on 22 June 2026 and is currently ranked No. 94 in the supplied structured data. ATP lists hard court as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #89 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

Budkov Kjaer reached a career-high No. 118 on 13 July 2026 and is currently ranked No. 144. ATP lists grass as his favourite surface and identifies his father, Alexander Kjaer, as his coach.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #118 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 15:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Shimabukuro's ranking and career hard-court edge make him a moderate favorite, but both players' recent three-set trends point to a tight match likely going over 21.5 games.

Back Shimabukuro to win the first set and consider the value on a 2-1 correct score, while avoiding the game handicap due to his shaky hard-court form.

Context

Shimabukuro is 0-2 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, losing to Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez and Keegan Smith.
- His hard-court first-serve points won dropped to 67.7% in those two matches, well below his overall last-15 rate of 75.8%.
- Double faults spiked to 7.5 per match on hard courts, compared to 3.6 overall in his last 15.
Budkov Kjaer's last 15 matches are split between clay (9) and grass (6), with no hard-court appearances.
- His overall record in those 15 matches is 6-9 (40%), with a first-serve points won rate of 67.8%.
- Career hard-court record is 16-10 (61.5%), but that includes lower-level matches and may not reflect current ability.
Shimabukuro has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15 (46.7%), winning 4.
- Budkov Kjaer has played 6 three-set matches in his last 15 (40%), winning 3.
- Combined, 13 of their 30 recent matches (43.3%) required a deciding set.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total GameslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 21.5

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both players have high three-set match rates and average over 24 games per match in their last 15, making Over 21.5 likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Shimabukuro's superior ranking, stronger career hard-court pedigree, and slightly better recent form against tougher opponents give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.
- Shimabukuro's last15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%), while Budkov Kjaer's is 6-9 (40%) over the same 15-match window.
- On hard courts, Shimabukuro's career surface record is 224-97 (69.8%) vs Budkov Kjaer's 16-10 (61.5%), though recent hard-court sample is small for both.
- Shimabukuro holds a ranking edge (94 vs 144) and has faced stronger recent opposition (avg opponent rank ~150 vs ~200 for Budkov Kjaer).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSho ShimabukuroEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
With both players frequently going to deciding sets and averaging over 24 games per match in their last 15, the total games line of 21.5 is likely to be surpassed.
- Shimabukuro's last15 matches average 25.3 total games per match (190+ games across 15 matches).
- Budkov Kjaer's last15 matches average 24.4 total games per match (175+ games across 15 matches).
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches in recent form: Shimabukuro 7/15, Budkov Kjaer 6/15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Shimabukuro's higher first-set win rate in recent matches and strong career conversion when ahead suggest a slight edge to take the opening set.
- Shimabukuro's first-set win rate in last15 is 53.3% (8/15), while Budkov Kjaer's is 40% (6/15).
- On hard courts, Shimabukuro's career first-set win conversion is 86%, indicating he often closes out matches when winning the opener.
- Budkov Kjaer's last15 first-serve points won is 67.8%, slightly lower than Shimabukuro's 75.8%, which may impact early-set dynamics.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSho ShimabukuroEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a high frequency of three-set matches in their recent form, the likelihood of this match going the distance is above 50%.
- Shimabukuro's last15 matches have gone to three sets in 7 of 15 (46.7%).
- Budkov Kjaer's last15 matches have gone to three sets in 6 of 15 (40%).
- Combined, 13 of their 30 recent matches (43.3%) required a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Sho Shimabukuro

7W 8L

6-7(4) 7-5 6-2#320Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#79Jaime Faria

6-4 7-5#19Frances Tiafoe

6-4 3-6 6-4#67Tallon Griekspoor

4-6 6-3 6-4#8Ben Shelton

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#899Nick Kyrgios

6-4 6-2#52Quentin Halys

7-6(4) 6-3#136Jurij Rodionov

7-5 6-4#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(6) 6-3#72Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 6-3#203Elias Ymer

7-6(3) 6-4#114Shintaro Mochizuki

2-6 6-4 7-5#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-2#52Quentin Halys

5-7 6-0 6-3#199Keegan Smith

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

6W 9L

7-6(4) 6-3#313Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-2#137Andrea Pellegrino

4-6 6-4 6-4 7-5#115Otto Virtanen

6-2 7-6(4)#258Matej Dodig

6-4 6-7(6) 6-1#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

3-6 6-3 6-2#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-0 7-6(4)#227August Holmgren

6-3 7-6(3)#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(2) 6-2#186Tom Gentzsch

2-6 6-4 6-2#230Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-4 6-4#60Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(8) 6-1 6-4#804Jakub Paul

6-3 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

6-4 6-2#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-3#115Otto Virtanen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SSSho ShimabukuroShimabukuro

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolai Budkov KjaerKjaerNK

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.4%+8.7pp65.1%

1st Serve Won75.8%+8.0pp67.8%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+1.2pp49.4%

Aces / Match6.9+3.43.5

Double Faults / Match3.60.5 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.3%+3.5pp37.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.5%+1.3pp39.8%

Break Pts Saved62.0%+2.4pp59.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.3%—49.8%

Serve · 3–2

56.4%1st Serve In+8.7pp65.1%

75.8%1st Serve Won+8.0pp67.8%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp49.4%

6.9Aces / Match+3.43.5

3.6Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

34.3%Return Pts Won+3.5pp37.8%

Pressure · 1–1

38.5%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp39.8%

62.0%Break Pts Saved+2.4pp59.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.3%Total Pts Won—49.8%