Maya Joint #76Australia22 – 1Ana Grubor #534Canada1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01

The read

Joint's superior ranking, career hard court pedigree, and stronger recent quality of opposition give her a clear edge despite workload concerns.

• Joint's last15 overall record is 4-11 (26.7%), but on hard courts she is 2-3 (40%) with 51.3% games won and 49.8% total points won.
• Grubor's last15 hard court record is 5-7 (41.7%) with 47.2% games won and 49.1% total points won, but her opponents were mostly ranked outside the top 300.
• Joint has a significant ranking edge (76 vs 534) and a career hard court win percentage of 61.3% compared to Grubor's 44.4%.
• Joint's recent hard court wins include a straight-set victory over #197 Osuigwe and a three-set win over #153 Samson, while Grubor's best recent hard court win was over an unranked player.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Joint's workload potentially affecting her serve and Grubor's low break point save rate suggests a match with multiple breaks and a higher game count.

• Joint's last15 hard court matches averaged 20.4 games per match, with 3 of 5 matches exceeding 20.5 games.
• Grubor's last15 hard court matches averaged 19.25 games, but her matches against opponents ranked above 300 averaged 21.3 games.
• Both players have shown vulnerability on serve: Joint saves 56.4% of break points overall, Grubor saves 51.9%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Assuming a competitive first set, the second set is likely to stay close, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Joint's last15 hard court second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 sets having 10 or more games.
• Grubor's last15 hard court second sets averaged 8.8 games, but her matches against higher-ranked opponents often see closer second sets.
• If the first set is close, the second set is likely to remain competitive as both players fight for the match.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Grubor's extremely high double fault rate, combined with Joint's above-average rate, makes over 10.5 double faults highly likely.

• Grubor averages 7.7 double faults per match overall in her last15, with 7.1 on hard courts.
• Joint averages 3.5 double faults per match overall in her last15, with 4.2 on hard courts.
• Combined, their hard court double fault averages sum to 11.3 per match, exceeding 10.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and their recent hard court ace numbers strongly support a low total ace count.

• Joint averages 2.3 aces per match overall in her last15, with 2.0 on hard courts.
• Grubor averages 1.6 aces per match overall in her last15, with 1.5 on hard courts.
• Combined, their hard court ace averages sum to 3.5 per match, well under 5.5.