RomaniaWTA Targu MuresRET

Predictions graded

Kaitlin Quevedo #103Spain1Francesca Jones #110United Kingdom0

Sets 7-6Sat 1 Aug 2026, 13:20 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaitlin Quevedo · 7 places

Kaitlin Quevedo

Spain

She reached a career-high No. 100 on 13 July 2026 after ending 2025 at No. 144. Six of her 10 ITF singles titles have come on clay.

Current ranking: #103
Peak ranking: #100 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

She reached a career-high No. 65 on 9 February 2026. Her results are clay-led, including WTA 125 titles in Rome and Palermo during July 2026.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #65 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Jul 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Francesca Jones's 13-match clay winning streak makes her the clear favorite, but fatigue from 14 matches in 20 days is a real risk.

Kaitlin Quevedo's fresher legs and straight-sets path keep her competitive, though Jones's superior serve and return metrics should prevail. Best bets: Jones 2-0 at 2.40 and over 20.5 total games at 1.80.

Context

Jones won Rome (13-19 July) and Palermo (21-26 July) before advancing in Targu Mures, playing 14 matches in 20 days.
- Her last 15 matches average 100.5 minutes, with several three-setters adding to the physical toll.
- No current injury is reported, but cumulative fatigue is the primary concern for this match.
Quevedo beat Fetecau (6-1, 6-3), Burillo (7-5, 6-1), and Monnet (7-6, 6-3) without losing a set.
- She had a rest day on 30 July, while Jones played on consecutive days.
- No deciding sets means less court time and physical strain compared to Jones's three-setters.
Jones's last 15 clay matches: 14-1 record, 78.4% sets won, 55.8% total points won.
- She wins 64.5% of first-serve points and converts 56.2% of break points on clay in this window.
- Quevedo's clay stats in the same window: 9-4 record, 51.4% total points won, 44.2% break conversion.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Jones's dominant recent clay form (14-1 record, superior serve/return metrics) gives her a clear edge, though fatigue from 14 matches in 20 days tempers confidence.
- Jones has won 14 of her last 15 matches (93.3%) on clay, with a 64.1% games-won rate in that window.
- Quevedo has won 9 of her last 13 clay matches (69.2%), with a 54.4% games-won rate.
- Jones holds a 55.8% total-points-won edge over Quevedo's 51.4% in recent clay matches.
- Jones's return-points-won rate (51.3%) and break-point conversion (56.2%) both exceed Quevedo's (49.8% and 44.2%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFrancesca JonesEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent clay matches average over 20.5 games, and their H2H went to three sets, supporting a total above the line.
- Jones's last 15 clay matches average 20.8 games per match (312 games / 15 matches).
- Quevedo's last 13 clay matches average 21.6 games per match (281 games / 13 matches).
- Their only H2H meeting (2024, clay) featured 25 games (0-6, 6-3, 6-4).
- Both players have break-point conversion rates above 43% in recent clay matches, extending games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Quevedo's competitive recent losses and Jones's heavy workload suggest the match will be closer than Jones's average margin, favoring Quevedo to cover the handicap.
- Jones's average games-won margin in her last 15 clay wins is +5.1 (200 games won - 112 lost / 14 wins).
- Quevedo's average games-lost margin in her last 13 clay matches is -0.8 (153 won - 128 lost / 13 matches).
- Quevedo has not lost by more than 3.5 games in any of her last 5 losses on clay.
- Jones's fatigue could narrow the margin, making a blowout less likely.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKaitlin Quevedo +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Jones's superior first-set record and higher first-serve effectiveness on clay suggest she is likely to start strongly, though Quevedo's straight-sets path here keeps it competitive.
- Jones has won the first set in 12 of her last 15 matches (80%), while Quevedo has done so in 9 of 15 (60%).
- Jones's first-set win conversion rate over her career is 88%, indicating strong front-running ability.
- Quevedo's first-serve points won on clay in the last 15 is 59.3%, below Jones's 64.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFrancesca JonesEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making it highly unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces.
- Jones averages 1.5 aces per match in her last 14 tracked matches.
- Quevedo averages 1.5 aces per match in her last 15 matches.
- Combined, they average 3.0 aces per match, well below 5.5.
- Neither player has a single match with more than 5 aces in the last 15.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined double-fault average sits right at the line, but the clay surface and potential fatigue could push it over.
- Jones averages 3.7 double faults per match in her last 14 tracked matches.
- Quevedo averages 3.3 double faults per match in her last 15 matches.
- Combined, they average 7.0 double faults per match.
- Both players have double-fault rates above 3.0 per match consistently.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Francesca Jones has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 15 matches where Francesca Jones was predicted to win, she fulfilled that prediction 14 times. The average estimated probability in those matches was 67.8%, with an expected 10.2 wins, showing she has consistently outperformed expectations. The only miss came against Leolia Jeanjean at a 58% probability, while her wins included several at similar or lower probabilities, indicating strong reliability even in closer matchups.

Recent evidence for Francesca Jones15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#260Alice Rame

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·72%

Matched

31 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#260Alice Rame

Francesca Jones to win

72%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

30 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#394Lucija Ciric-Bagaric

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·78%

Matched

30 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-0#394Lucija Ciric-Bagaric

Francesca Jones to win

78%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-1#287Chloe Paquet

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·78%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#110Francesca Jones2-1#287Chloe Paquet

Francesca Jones to win

78%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

26 Jul·WTA Palermo

#113Francesca Jones2-1#191Fiona Ferro

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#113Francesca Jones2-1#191Fiona Ferro

Francesca Jones to win

62%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

25 Jul·WTA Palermo

#113Francesca Jones2-0#236Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsFrancesca Jones to win·55%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#113Francesca Jones2-0#236Alevtina Ibragimova

Francesca Jones to win

55%probability

Francesca Jones won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W0-6 6-3 6-4Kaitlin Quevedo#103vFrancesca Jones#110Sep 7, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Kaitlin Quevedo

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-3#200Carole Monnet

7-5 6-1#283Irene Burillo

6-1 6-3#892Irina Fetecau

7-5 6-4#54Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 7-6(2)#50Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-1#75Elena Gabriela Ruse

7-5 6-2#90Simona Waltert

4-6 6-4 6-4#283Irene Burillo

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#223Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-2 6-3#819Tiana Tian Deng

6-4 6-4#113Claire Liu

6-0 6-3#862Sayaka Ishii

6-3 6-4#153Laura Samson

6-3 3-6 6-4#128Jeline Vandromme

6-3 6-4#160Jazmin Ortenzi

Francesca Jones

14W 1L

6-1 6-2#260Alice Rame

7-5 6-3#394Lucija Ciric Bagaric

6-0 1-6 6-0#287Chloe Paquet

6-0 4-6 7-6(6)#159Fiona Ferro

6-3 6-4#219Alevtina Ibragimova

4-6 6-3 6-2#210Jennifer Ruggeri

6-3 6-2#248Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-3 6-2#228Darya Astakhova

6-3 6-1#118Lucia Bronzetti

2-6 6-1 6-1#318Martina Trevisan

6-3 6-1#137Noma Akugue Noha

2-6 6-4 6-1#276Federica Urgesi

1-6 6-1 6-0#341Dalila Spiteri

1-6 6-4 7-5#117Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 7-5#260Alice Rame

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KQKaitlin QuevedoQuevedo

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesca JonesJonesFJ

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Kaitlin Quevedo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.7%+4.8pp64.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1560.6%+3.9pp64.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1544.5%+7.6pp52.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.5—1.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.30.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.9%+2.4pp51.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1543.2%+13.0pp56.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1557.9%+0.9pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.5%+4.3pp55.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

59.7%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.8pp64.5%

60.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp64.5%

44.5%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.6pp52.1%

1.5Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—1.5

3.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

48.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp51.3%

Pressure · 1–1

43.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+13.0pp56.2%

57.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp55.8%

Kaitlin Quevedo #103Spain1Francesca Jones #110United Kingdom0

Player Profiles

Kaitlin Quevedo

Francesca Jones

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Francesca Jones

Kaitlin Quevedo +1.5

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Francesca Jones has been highly reliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Kaitlin Quevedo

Francesca Jones

Stat Battle