CanadaATP MontrealFinished

Predictions graded

Hugo Gaston #90France1Duncan Chan #601Canada2

Sets 6-2 · 5-7 · 3-6Sat 1 Aug 2026, 17:50 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHugo Gaston · 511 places

Hugo Gaston

France

Gaston is a 25-year-old left-hander whose career high was No. 58 in July 2022; clay is his stated favourite surface. He reached an ATP semifinal at Estoril in July 2026.

Current ranking: #90
Peak ranking: #58 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Duncan Chan

Canada

Chan is a 20-year-old Canadian from Markham who finished second in the 2026 Road to the NBO and received a qualifying wildcard for his Montreal debut. Reliable public sources did not establish his career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #601
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Aug 2026, 15:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Gaston is the favorite but overpriced at 1.29 given his poor hard-court record and recent clay-to-hard switch.

Chan +3.5 games (2.20) and over 21.5 total games (1.90) offer the best value, as both players tend to play close matches. Avoid Gaston -3.5 and short odds on set winners due to surface uncertainty.

Context

Gaston's last match was a 6-4, 7-5 loss on clay on July 25, just seven days before this hard-court qualifier.
- His 2026 hard-court record is 2-3, and his career hard-court win rate is 55.3% compared to 62.6% on clay.
- Last-15 stats on hard courts are not available, but his overall last-15 return points won (41.7%) and first-serve points won (70.9%) may dip on a faster surface.
Chan's last-15 opponents had an average ranking of ~350, with only two matches against players inside the top 200 (losses to #121 Sweeny and #114 Mochizuki).
- He won the 2026 Road to the NBO wildcard race, but his 7-6 hard-court record this year includes no wins over top-200 players.
- Home crowd support could lift his performance, but the step up in class is significant.
Chan's last-15 aces per match: 4.1 (61 aces in 15 matches). Gaston's: 2.7 (41 in 15).
- Chan's last-15 double faults per match: 3.3 (49 in 15). Gaston's: 1.7 (26 in 15).
- On hard courts specifically, Chan's double fault rate rises to 3.5 per match (46 in 13 matches).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Gaston's superior recent form, return stats, and ranking advantage give him a clear edge, though surface switch from clay to hard adds uncertainty.
- Gaston last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Chan 8-7 (53.3%)
- Gaston return points won 41.7% vs Chan 39.7% in last15
- Gaston break point conversion 43.5% vs Chan 41.3% in last15
- Gaston ranking #90 vs Chan #601, significant experience gap
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHugo GastonEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Both players have similar games-per-match averages and competitive recent form, making a match exceeding 21.5 games likely in a best-of-3 format.
- Gaston last15 average games per match 23.7, Chan 23.7
- Both players have 50%+ deciding set rates, indicating close matches
- Chan last15 hard court matches average 23.5 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Gaston's wins are rarely blowouts, and Chan's competitiveness on hard courts suggests he can keep the match within 3.5 games.
- Gaston last15 average margin 1.6 games, Chan -0.3 games
- Chan last15 hard court average margin -0.5 games
- Gaston's recent wins often by narrow margins (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 sets)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDuncan Chan +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Both players average close to 10 games in first sets recently, and with competitive form, a tight opening set is probable.
- Gaston last15 first set average 9.7 games, Chan 9.8 games
- Chan last15 hard court first set average 9.8 games
- Both players have tiebreak experience (Gaston 58% career, Chan 50%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly shorter on average, but the competitive nature of the match could push it over 9.5 games.
- Gaston last15 second set average 9.5 games, Chan 9.3 games
- Chan last15 hard court second set average 9.2 games
- Both players have shown ability to extend sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Gaston's strong career first-set conversion and slightly better serve numbers suggest he can start well, but Chan's high conversion rate and home wildcard context add risk.
- Gaston first set win conversion career 82%, Chan 95% but small sample
- Gaston last15 first serve points won 70.9% vs Chan 67.7%
- Chan last15 hard court record 7-6, Gaston 2-3 on hard in 2026
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHugo GastonEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's elevated double fault rate, especially on hard courts, pushes the combined total above 5.5 in most scenarios.
- Gaston last15 double faults per match 1.7, Chan 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match 5.0 in last15
- Chan's high double fault rate on hard courts (3.5) increases total
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's serve generates more aces, and combined averages slightly exceed 6.5, though Gaston's low ace count adds variance.
- Gaston last15 aces per match 2.7, Chan 4.1
- Combined average aces per match 6.8 in last15
- Chan's higher ace rate on hard courts (4.1) supports over
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players showing competitive sets and tiebreak experience, a tiebreak is a coin-flip possibility, though not strongly favored.
- Gaston career tiebreak win rate 58%, Chan 50%
- Gaston last15 tiebreaks played: 3 in 15 matches, Chan: 4 in 15
- Both players have competitive sets, increasing tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Hugo Gaston

10W 5L

6-4 7-5#48Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-4#332Tiago Torres

6-0 6-3#119Titouan Droguet

5-0 ret.#102Damir Dzumhur

6-2 7-5#62Daniel Altmaier

4-6 6-0 6-4#88Jan Choinski

5-7 7-6(4) 7-5#107Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-2 6-4#319Marvin Moeller

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1#428Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-1#351Andrey Chepelev

6-1 6-4 6-2#51Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-1 5-7 6-2 6-4#151Moez Echargui

7-5 6-4#181Federico Cina

4-6 6-3 6-4#196Lautaro Midon

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-2#219Felix Gill

Duncan Chan

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#121Dane Sweeny

6-2 2-6 6-4#114Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#238James McCabe

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#502Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 6-4#451Alafia Ayeni

6-4 6-2#325Daniel Milavsky

7-6(5) 6-3#535Timo Legout

2-6 6-4 3-0 ret.—Unknown Player

6-4 6-3#234Braden Shick

6-2 4-6 6-2#662Ryan Colby

7-5 7-6(6)#486Ozan Baris

7-6(3) 6-2#525Pavle Marinkov

3-6 6-1 6-4#450Jie Cui

6-4 6-2#169Daniil Glinka

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#283Charles Broom

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HGHugo GastonGaston

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Duncan ChanChanDC

Hugo Gaston carries the stronger recent form — Duncan Chan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In53.0%+9.8pp62.8%

1st Serve Won70.9%+3.2pp67.7%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+3.6pp48.0%

Aces / Match2.7+1.44.1

Double Faults / Match1.71.6 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.7%+2.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.5%+2.2pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved66.4%+10.2pp56.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+2.2pp49.6%

Serve · 3–2

53.0%1st Serve In+9.8pp62.8%

70.9%1st Serve Won+3.2pp67.7%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+3.6pp48.0%

2.7Aces / Match+1.44.1

1.7Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won+2.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 2–0

43.5%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp41.3%

66.4%Break Pts Saved+10.2pp56.2%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+2.2pp49.6%

Hugo Gaston #90France1Duncan Chan #601Canada2

Player Profiles

Hugo Gaston

Duncan Chan

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Duncan Chan +3.5

Over 21.5

Hugo Gaston 2-0

Over 9.5

Hugo Gaston

Hugo Gaston

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hugo Gaston -3.5 @ 1.60

Hugo Gaston

Duncan Chan

Stat Battle