Emiliana Arango #95Colombia00 – 2Lois Boisson #292France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Arango's superior return game and Boisson's poor break point conversion give Arango a slight edge, despite both players' weak recent form.

• Arango's last15 overall record is 5-10 (33.3%) vs Boisson's 4-11 (26.7%), but Arango faced stronger opposition (avg opponent rank ~130 vs Boisson's ~70).
• On hard courts, Arango's 2026 record is 1-7, but her last15 hard stats are unavailable; Boisson's last15 hard record is 3-4 (42.9%) with 51.6% games won.
• Arango's return points won in last15 overall is 44.2% vs Boisson's 38.9%, indicating a return edge.
• Boisson's last15 break point conversion is low at 33.7%, while Arango's is 38.9%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Both players tend to play close first sets, and with neither dominating early, over 9.5 games in the first set is likely.

• Arango's last15 first set average games is 9.7, with 10 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
• Boisson's last15 first set average games is 9.9, with 11 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
• Both players have low first set win percentages, indicating tight opening sets.
• In Boisson's last15 hard court matches, first set average games is 10.1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Both players have been involved in many close matches recently, and their low win percentages indicate a high likelihood of a three-setter, pushing total games over 21.5.

• Arango's last15 matches average 21.3 total games, with 8 of 15 matches exceeding 21.5 games.
• Boisson's last15 matches average 22.3 total games, with 9 of 15 matches exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have low win rates, suggesting competitive matches that often go to three sets.
• Arango's last15 deciding set rate is 40% (6 of 15 matches went to a third set).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Arango's return prowess could help her secure the first set against Boisson, who has struggled in opening sets recently, though the surface switch adds uncertainty.

• Arango's first set win percentage in last15 is 40% (6-9), Boisson's is 33.3% (5-10).
• Arango's first serve points won in last15 is 60.9%, Boisson's is 67%, but Arango's return points won is higher.
• Boisson's last15 first set losses often came against top-50 opponents; Arango is ranked 95.
• Arango's recent hard court data is limited, but her overall return game may give an early edge.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

With both players frequently going to three sets and neither showing dominant form, a deciding set is a strong possibility.

• Arango's last15 three-set match frequency is 40% (6 of 15).
• Boisson's last15 three-set match frequency is 46.7% (7 of 15).
• Combined, 43.3% of their recent matches went to a deciding set.
• Both players have low win rates, suggesting they often push matches to the limit.