Dalibor Svrcina #116Czechia11 – 2Titouan Droguet #119France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Droguet's superior recent form and serve metrics give him the edge, despite Svrcina's recent hard-court preparation.

• Droguet's last15 overall record is 66.7% (10-5) vs Svrcina's 46.7% (7-8).
• Droguet holds a significant serve edge: 70.4% first-serve points won vs 63.6%, and 5.6 aces per match vs 2.1.
• Svrcina's last15 hard-court sample is only 3 matches (2-1), while Droguet's overall form is stronger across surfaces.
• Droguet's break-point save rate is 62.2% vs Svrcina's 52.3%, indicating better clutch serving.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Historical first-set game averages for both players are near 9.5, with enough tight sets to favor the over.

• Svrcina's last15 first-set games average 9.7 (based on parsed sets: 6-4, 3-0 ret., 6-7, 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 1-6, 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 5-7, 2-6, 7-6).
• Droguet's last15 first-set games average 9.3 (0-6, 6-0, 1-6, 6-1, 3-6, 1-6, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 7-6, 2-6, 6-7, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3).
• Both players have a mix of tight and one-sided first sets, but the overall average supports over 9.5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70

The read

Svrcina's competitive game counts and Droguet's inability to dominate suggest Svrcina will stay within 3.5 games.

• Svrcina's last15 average games won per match: 11.6 (174/15).
• Droguet's last15 average games won per match: 11.1 (166/15).
• The expected game differential is small, and Svrcina has covered +3.5 in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The combined average games per match and competitive recent form point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Svrcina's last15 matches average 22.9 games per match (344 games/15 matches).
• Droguet's last15 matches average 21.7 games per match (326 games/15 matches).
• Both players have similar games-won percentages (~50%), suggesting competitive sets.
• Svrcina's recent hard-court matches include a three-setter (19-16 games) and a straight-set loss (6-12 games), showing variability.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Droguet's high ace count alone pushes the combined total over 7.5, with Svrcina contributing a few.

• Droguet averages 5.6 aces per match in last15, Svrcina 2.1.
• Combined average is 7.7 aces per match.
• Droguet's ace rate is consistent across surfaces (4.0 on clay, 8.8 on grass), and hard courts typically favor servers.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Svrcina's high double-fault rate drives the combined total above 6.5, even with Droguet's low count.

• Svrcina averages 5.0 double faults per match in last15, Droguet 2.1.
• Combined average is 7.1 double faults per match.
• Svrcina's double-fault rate is high across surfaces (4.6 on clay, 6.3 on hard in small sample).