GermanyBonn - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Jamie Mackenzie #931Germany2Jurij Rodionov #136Austria0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Fri 31 Jul 2026, 15:40 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJurij Rodionov · 795 places

Jamie Mackenzie

Germany

German right-hander, age 18, currently ranked No. 931 with a career high of No. 912. His listed favorite surface is hard, and he entered Bonn via wildcard.

Current ranking: #931
Peak ranking: #912
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Jurij Rodionov

Austria

Austrian left-hander, age 27, currently ranked No. 136 with a career high of No. 87 achieved in February 2024. He won the 2025 Bonn title on clay.

Current ranking: #136
Peak ranking: #87 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jul 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Rodionov is the rightful favorite with a 2025 H2H win, strong recent straight-set form, and defending champion status, but his 1.30 match winner odds offer no value given Mackenzie's competitive clay record.

The best betting angle is over 9.5 games in set 1, as both players have a high frequency of extended first sets on clay, and Mackenzie's fatigue may not prevent a tight start.

Context

From July 21-29, Mackenzie played nine matches across singles and doubles.
- Five of those nine matches required a deciding set or match tiebreak.
- His only full rest day before this match was July 30.
Rodionov's last six completed matches: all straight-set wins.
- This week in Bonn: 6-3 6-4 over Boscardin Dias and 7-6(3) 6-3 over McDonald.
- His last 15 overall record is 10-5 (66.7%).
H2H: Rodionov defeated Mackenzie 6-3, 6-4 on clay in August 2025.
- That match was also in Bonn, where Rodionov is the defending champion.
- Rodionov won 87% of first-serve points in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Jurij Rodionov

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Rodionov's superior ranking, H2H win, and consistent recent form on clay give him a clear edge, though Mackenzie's fatigue from a dense schedule further tilts the match in Rodionov's favor.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Jurij Rodionov

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Rodionov's strong first-set record on clay and Mackenzie's potential fatigue make Rodionov the likely set 1 winner, but the odds overestimate his probability.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Jurij Rodionov 2-0

1.80fair 1.67

BetBugs 45% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Rodionov's superior serve and return stats on clay, combined with Mackenzie's lower break-point conversion rate, make a straight-set win more likely than the odds imply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Rodionov's superior ranking, H2H win, and consistent recent form on clay give him a clear edge, though Mackenzie's fatigue from a dense schedule further tilts the match in Rodionov's favor.
- Rodionov won the only H2H meeting 6-3 6-4 on clay in 2025.
- Rodionov's last15 overall record is 66.7% (10-5) vs Mackenzie's 53.3% (8-7).
- Rodionov's last15 clay record is 62.5% (5-3) with 53.6% games won; Mackenzie's is 63.6% (7-4) but against weaker opponents.
- Rodionov has a career win rate of 57.2% and ranking 136; Mackenzie is unranked with 52.8% career win rate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJurij RodionovEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have competitive first sets on clay, with a majority exceeding 9.5 games, suggesting a tight opening set.
- Mackenzie's last15 clay matches have seen 7 of 11 first sets go over 9.5 games.
- Rodionov's last15 clay matches have seen 5 of 8 first sets go over 9.5 games.
- The H2H match had a first set of 9 games (6-3).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown the ability to extend matches on clay, and Mackenzie's recent pattern of three-setters suggests this match could surpass 21.5 games.
- Mackenzie's last15 clay matches average 22.5 games per match (148 games in 11 matches).
- Rodionov's last15 clay matches average 21.0 games per match (90 games in 8 matches).
- Mackenzie has played 5 three-set matches in his last 9, indicating competitive, extended matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Rodionov's tendency to start strong, combined with Mackenzie's potential fatigue, makes Rodionov likely to take the opening set.
- Rodionov has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Mackenzie lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches overall.
- Rodionov's first set win conversion rate is 83% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJurij RodionovEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches, combined with competitive sets expected, makes a tiebreak likely.
- Mackenzie has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Rodionov has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- Both players have tiebreak experience on clay, with Mackenzie at 46% career win rate and Rodionov at 55%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total over 10.5 is plausible, though Mackenzie's lower clay ace rate adds uncertainty.
- Rodionov averages 6.7 aces per match in last15 overall, 6.8 on clay.
- Mackenzie averages 5.1 aces per match in last15 overall, 4.3 on clay.
- Combined average aces per match: 11.8 (Rodionov 6.7 + Mackenzie 5.1).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages exceed 6.5, making this a reasonable low-confidence over bet.
- Mackenzie averages 3.9 double faults per match in last15 overall, 4.5 on clay.
- Rodionov averages 3.3 double faults per match in last15 overall, 3.0 on clay.
- Combined average double faults: 7.2 (Mackenzie 3.9 + Rodionov 3.3).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-4Jamie Mackenzie—vJurij Rodionov#136Aug 6, 2025

1 total meetings

Jamie Mackenzie

8W 7L

6-1 1-6 6-3#190Elmer Moller

7-6(4) 6-2#251Buvaysar Gadamauri

6-2 4-6 7-5#490Viktor Durasovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#769Tomas Farjat

7-6(4) 6-1#350Marc Polmans

4-6 6-1 7-6(3)#168Alex Bolt

6-3 6-3#561Ivan Ivanov

7-5 7-6(4)#410Jack Loge

7-6(3) 6-4#263Cezar Cretu

6-4 2-6 6-2#319Marvin Moeller

6-7(3) 6-4 7-5#758Ignacio Parisca

6-3 6-0—Alessandro Mondazzi

4-6 6-1 10-2—Daniel Aleksandar Amarandei

6-4 6-4#512Tai Sach

6-6 ret.#462Jason Murray Kubler

Jurij Rodionov

10W 5L

7-6(3) 6-3#509Niels Mcdonald

6-3 6-4#256Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-2 7-6(4)#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-2#183Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 7-6(4)#192Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-2#351Andrey Chepelev

4-6 7-5 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-3 6-2#383Mathys Erhard

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2#179Remy Bertola

6-4 6-4#228Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-2#217Henry Searle

7-6(3) 6-1#119Titouan Droguet

6-4 6-2#239Yi Zhou

6-2 7-6(7)#184Colton Smith

7-6(2) 6-2#454Quinn Vandecasteele

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JMJamie MackenzieMackenzie

Last 15

0–7

9 core stats · 2 even

Jurij RodionovRodionovJR

Jurij Rodionov carries the stronger recent form — Jamie Mackenzie's route runs through 2nd serve won.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1557.5%+3.0pp60.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.1%+2.9pp74.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.7%—50.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/155.1+1.66.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.90.6 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.2%—38.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1539.6%+3.1pp42.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.8%+3.6pp64.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.4%+1.2pp51.6%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

57.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp60.5%

71.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.9pp74.0%

50.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—50.7%

5.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.66.7

3.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.6 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—38.1%

Pressure · 0–2

39.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.1pp42.7%

60.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp64.4%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.2pp51.6%