Thiago Moura Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Monteiro's dominant clay H2H and slightly better recent form on the surface give him the edge, though Pellegrino's higher break conversion keeps it competitive.
- Monteiro leads H2H 5-1, all on clay, with wins in 2022 and 2023.
- Monteiro's last 15 clay record: 10-5 (66.7%), Pellegrino's: 8-5 (61.5%).
- Monteiro's return points won on clay last 15: 37.7%, Pellegrino's: 39%.
- Monteiro's break point conversion last 15: 43%, Pellegrino's: 57.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pellegrino's recent losses have been competitive, and he has covered a +3.5 game handicap in most H2H meetings, suggesting value even if he loses.
- Monteiro's last 15 average margin: +2.3 games; Pellegrino's: +1.6 games.
- H2H margins: 4, 8, 4, 3, 5, 5 games (avg 4.8), but Pellegrino covered +3.5 in 4 of 6.
- Pellegrino's last 5 losses: by 3, 3, 2, 6, 4 games (covered +3.5 in 3 of 5).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndrea Pellegrino +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 24 games, and their competitive H2H history suggests a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Monteiro's last 15 matches average 24.0 games; Pellegrino's average 24.7.
- In their 6 H2H matches, 4 had 20+ games, with 2 exceeding 21.5.
- Both players have 53% deciding set win rates, indicating potential for tight matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near 9.5 games, and H2H history shows a mix of tight and one-sided sets, making over 9.5 a marginal lean.
- Monteiro's last 5 first sets: 7-5, 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 (avg 9.8 games).
- Pellegrino's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 (avg 9.2 games).
- H2H first sets: 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, 6-7 (avg 9.3 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in H2H have averaged 9.7 games, and recent form shows potential for competitive sets, though some blowouts reduce confidence.
- Monteiro's last 5 second sets: 7-5, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 4-6 (avg 9.2 games).
- Pellegrino's last 5 second sets: 6-0, 5-7, 6-2, 6-7, 6-2 (avg 9.0 games).
- H2H second sets: 6-4, 7-6, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 (avg 9.7 games).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's strong first-serve performance and recent trend of winning opening sets suggest a slight advantage, but both players have high first-set conversion rates.
- Monteiro's first set win conversion career: 81%, Pellegrino's: 82%.
- Monteiro won first set in 4 of last 5 matches; Pellegrino in 3 of last 5.
- Monteiro's last 15 first serve points won: 73.4%, Pellegrino's: 66.3%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages from recent matches and H2H hover around 7.5, making over a slight lean given Monteiro's serving strength.
- Monteiro's last 15 aces per match: 5.1; Pellegrino's: 2.5 (combined 7.6).
- H2H aces: Monteiro 30 in 6 matches (5.0), Pellegrino 20 (3.3) — combined 8.3.
- Both players' ace rates are consistent on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages sit right at 4.5, but Pellegrino's historical struggles with double faults in this matchup suggest a lean toward over.
- Monteiro's last 15 double faults per match: 1.8; Pellegrino's: 2.7 (combined 4.5).
- H2H double faults: Monteiro 13 (2.2), Pellegrino 26 (4.3) — combined 6.5.
- Pellegrino's higher double fault rate in H2H pushes the total up.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Thiago Moura Monteiro #303Brazil2Andrea Pellegrino #137Italy0

Player Profiles

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Andrea Pellegrino

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Andrea Pellegrino 2-1

Thiago Moura Monteiro 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Andrea Pellegrino 2-0 @ 2.25

Head-to-Head

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Andrea Pellegrino

Stat Battle