Terence Atmane #56France00 – 2Alejandro Tabilo #302

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95

The read

Tabilo's superior return stats and more reliable hard-court record give him a slight edge, though Atmane's upset over Tiafoe adds uncertainty.

• Tabilo has a 7-5 hard-court record in 2026, while Atmane is 8-8 on hard courts this year.
• Tabilo's last 15 overall return points won is 35.5% vs Atmane's 28.6%, indicating a significant edge in return quality.
• Atmane's last 15 hard-court sample is only 1 match, making his recent hard-court form highly uncertain.
• Tabilo just beat Griekspoor in three sets on hard court, showing current surface competence.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tabilo's recent first-set performance and return advantage slightly favor him, but the edge is small given limited hard-court data.

• Tabilo won his last first set on hard court (7-6 vs Griekspoor), while Atmane lost his (4-6 vs Tiafoe).
• Atmane's first-set win rate in last 15 overall is unclear, but his overall record is 5-10, suggesting slow starts.
• Tabilo's return points won (35.5%) could pressure Atmane's serve early.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have strong ace counts, especially on hard courts, making over 12.5 aces likely.

• Atmane averages 7.8 aces per match in last 15, Tabilo 6.2.
• Atmane hit 10 aces in his only recent hard-court match, Tabilo 14.
• Combined average aces per match in last 15 is 14.0, above the 12.5 line.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average is borderline, but recent hard-court numbers suggest a slight lean toward under 4.5.

• Atmane averages 2.1 double faults per match in last 15, Tabilo 2.3.
• Combined average is 4.4, just under the 4.5 line.
• Hard-court sample: Atmane 1 DF, Tabilo 3 DF in their recent matches.