Tatiana Prozorova #181Russia00 – 2Peyton Stearns #58United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75

The read

Prozorova's strong recent hard-court form (4-1 in last 5 on hard) and Stearns' lack of hard-court match play in the last 15 matches give Prozorova a surface-fit edge.

• Prozorova's last15Stats.overall record on hard courts: 4-1 (80% win rate) with 59.4% games won, 53.7% total points won.
• Stearns' last15Stats.bySurface.Hard covers only 1 match (win vs Stoiana), insufficient sample for reliable surface-specific form.
• Prozorova's recent hard-court form includes wins over Sierra (rank 86) and Drenser-Hagmann, while Stearns' only hard-court match in window was a tight three-setter.
• Career hard-court win percentage: Prozorova 104-? (64.4% overall), Stearns 114-? (57.8% overall), but Prozorova's 2026 hard-court record is 17-6 (73.9%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players' recent hard-court matches have been competitive and often extended, making a total over 21.5 games likely.

• Prozorova's last 5 hard-court matches averaged 21.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Stearns' only hard-court match in window had 29 games.
• Both players have shown three-set tendencies recently: Prozorova 3 of last 5 hard-court matches went three sets; Stearns' only hard-court match went three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Prozorova's consistent hard-court performance and Stearns' limited hard-court data suggest Prozorova will keep the match close, covering the +1.5 game handicap.

• Prozorova's hard-court games won % in last 15: 59.4%, Stearns' only hard-court match: 62.1% but small sample.
• Prozorova's average games won per hard-court match in last 5: 12.6, Stearns' only match: 18.
• If match is close, Prozorova is unlikely to lose by more than 1.5 games on handicap.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set scores on hard courts for both players trend toward competitive starts, slightly favoring over 9.5 games.

• Prozorova's last 5 hard-court first sets: 6-1, 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 — average 9.8 games, 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Stearns' only hard-court first set: 6-7 (13 games).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Prozorova's second sets on hard courts have been close, but Stearns' lone data point is a blowout; overall, the set could be tight if Prozorova doesn't dominate.

• Prozorova's last 5 hard-court second sets: 5-7, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 — average 9.4 games, 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Stearns' only hard-court second set: 6-0 (6 games).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50

The read

Prozorova's high first-set win rate on hard courts and Stearns' slow start in her lone recent hard-court match suggest Prozorova is likely to take the opener.

• Prozorova's first-set win conversion career: 87%, indicating strong starts.
• In last 5 hard-court matches, Prozorova won the first set in 4 of 5 (only loss vs Zakharova).
• Stearns' only hard-court match in window: lost first set 6-7 before comeback.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent hard-court matches and their history of three-setters suggest this match is likely to go the distance.

• Prozorova's last 5 hard-court matches: 3 three-setters, 2 straight-setters.
• Stearns' only hard-court match in window went three sets.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates around 48% career, indicating they are often pushed to deciders.