United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Rafael Jodar #24Spain2Kei Nishikori #721Japan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Thu 30 Jul 2026, 00:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRafael Jodar · 697 places

Rafael Jodar

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 23 in 2026 after making the Roland Garros quarterfinals on debut. He arrived in Washington at No. 24 after starting the season at No. 168 and winning Marrakech.

Current ranking: #24
Peak ranking: #23 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Kei Nishikori

Japan

Former world No. 4 and 2014 US Open finalist who won Washington in 2015. He has announced that 2026 will be his final season after several injury-disrupted years.

Current ranking: #721
Peak ranking: #4 · 2015
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 09:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Rafael Jodar's strong recent form and superior serve/return metrics make him the favorite, but Kei Nishikori's experience and resilience should keep the match close.

Expect a competitive battle likely going over 21.5 games, with value on Nishikori +3.5 games and a potential three-setter.

Context

Jodar lost a straight-set doubles match on 27 July and beat Arthur Fils in singles on 28 July.
- Nishikori played a 2h31m singles match on 27 July but had no match on 28 July.
- Jodar's last 15 matches average 150 minutes, suggesting his body is used to longer efforts, but back-to-back days add cumulative fatigue.
Jodar's last 15 by surface: 11 clay, 3 grass, 1 hard.
- His hard-court stats are from a single match: 51.9% total points won, 37% return points won.
- Nishikori has 6 hard-court matches in his last 15, with a 50% win rate and more reliable surface data.
Nishikori beat Shang 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 without facing a break point.
- Nishikori's last 15 break-point conversion rate is 48.3%, higher than Jodar's 42.3%.
- Jodar saved 65.4% of break points in his last 15, but Nishikori's clean opener suggests he can apply consistent pressure.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Jodar's superior recent form (11-4 vs 8-7) and stronger return/serve metrics over the last 15 matches give him a clear edge, especially on hard court where he just beat a top-25 opponent.
- Jodar's last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), Nishikori: 8-7 (53.3%)
- Jodar's last 15 total points won: 52.3%, Nishikori: 50.4%
- Jodar's last 15 return points won: 41.5%, Nishikori: 38.0%
- Jodar's last 15 break points saved: 65.4%, Nishikori: 50.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's average winning margin is narrow (+3.3 games), and Nishikori's recent hard-court performance shows he can keep matches close, making +3.5 a solid cover.
- Jodar's last 15 average games won per match: 17.1, lost: 13.8 (margin +3.3)
- Nishikori's last 15 average games won per match: 11.5, lost: 11.0 (margin +0.5)
- Jodar's last hard-court match: won 13-9 (margin +4)
- Nishikori's last hard-court match: won 18-14 (margin +4)
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKei Nishikori +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent first sets on hard court have been tight, averaging over 10 games, and with Jodar's strong serve and Nishikori's resilience, a close opening set is expected.
- Jodar's last 15 first-set average games: 10.3 (based on recent form data)
- Nishikori's last 15 first-set average games: 9.8 (based on recent form data)
- Jodar's last hard-court first set vs Fils: 13 games (7-6)
- Nishikori's last hard-court first set vs Shang: 13 games (6-7)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent matches show potential for tight sets; Nishikori's last match went three sets with 32 games, and Jodar's win over Fils was competitive, making over 21.5 games likely in a Bo3.
- Jodar's last 15 average games per match: 30.9 (257 games in 15 matches)
- Nishikori's last 15 average games per match: 22.5 (173 games in 15 matches)
- Nishikori's recent hard-court match vs Shang: 32 games (6-7, 6-3, 6-4)
- Jodar's last hard-court match vs Fils: 22 games (7-6, 6-3)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Jodar's elite first-set conversion rate (94% career) and slightly better return game in recent matches suggest he'll start strong, though Nishikori's break-point conversion is a counter.
- Jodar's career first-set win conversion: 94%
- Jodar's last 15 first-serve points won: 68.4%, Nishikori: 68.5% (similar)
- Jodar's last 15 break points converted: 42.3%, Nishikori: 48.3%
- Jodar's last 15 return points won: 41.5%, Nishikori: 38.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have a high rate of three-set matches in their last 15 (around 50%), and with competitive metrics, a deciding set is more likely than not.
- Jodar's last 15 matches: 8 three-setters out of 15 (53%)
- Nishikori's last 15 matches: 7 three-setters out of 15 (47%)
- Jodar's last hard-court match: straight sets (2-0)
- Nishikori's last hard-court match: three sets (2-1)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have tiebreak experience and recent matches show a combined tiebreak occurrence rate of about 30%, making a tiebreak likely in a competitive Bo3 match.
- Jodar's career tiebreak win percentage: 56%
- Nishikori's career tiebreak win percentage: 59%
- Jodar's last 15 matches: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (27% of matches)
- Nishikori's last 15 matches: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33% of matches)
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's ace rate (5.3 per match) combined with Nishikori's (2.6) projects to around 8 aces total, and with a likely three-setter, over 7.5 is a reasonable expectation.
- Jodar's last 15 aces per match: 5.3
- Nishikori's last 15 aces per match: 2.6
- Jodar's last hard-court match aces: 4 (vs Fils)
- Nishikori's last hard-court match aces: 3 (vs Shang)
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double-fault rates (5.7 per match) suggest over 5.5 is possible, but Nishikori's low recent hard-court count (1) adds uncertainty, keeping confidence low.
- Jodar's last 15 double faults per match: 3.3
- Nishikori's last 15 double faults per match: 2.4
- Jodar's last hard-court match double faults: 3 (vs Fils)
- Nishikori's last hard-court match double faults: 1 (vs Shang)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Rafael Jodar

11W 4L

7-6(5) 6-3#22Arthur Fils

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#114Shintaro Mochizuki

3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-3 6-3 7-5#219Felix Gill

7-6(3) 6-1 6-3#2Alexander Zverev

4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2#66Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 4-6 6-3 6-3#40Alex Michelsen

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#83James Duckworth

6-1 6-0 6-4#95Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(5) 5-7 6-0#23Luciano Darderi

6-1 6-4#16Learner Tien

6-1 4-6 6-3#35Matteo Arnaldi

7-6(4) 6-4#49Nuno Borges

6-2 7-6(0)#1Jannik Sinner

7-5 6-0#70Vit Kopriva

Kei Nishikori

8W 7L

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#270Juncheng Shang

6-3 6-7(3) 6-0#379Jack Kennedy

6-2 6-3#184Colton Smith

6-3 3-6 6-1#117Yibing Wu

6-3 6-2#369Nicolas Kicker

7-6(5) 6-4#159Clement Tabur

3-6 6-4 6-2#144Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 4-6 6-2#159Clement Tabur

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#533Jelle Sels

6-2 6-3#705Daniel Jade

6-1 2-2 ret.#70Vit Kopriva

6-2 6-2#254Kaichi Uchida

6-4 6-1#443Sanhui Shin

4-6 6-1 6-1#792Taisei Ichikawa

7-5 6-3#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RJRafael JodarJodar

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Kei NishikoriNishikoriKN

Rafael Jodar carries the stronger recent form — Kei Nishikori's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In63.3%—62.9%

1st Serve Won68.4%—68.5%

2nd Serve Won54.6%+1.7pp52.9%

Aces / Match5.3+2.72.6

Double Faults / Match3.30.9 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.5%+3.5pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.3%+6.0pp48.3%

Break Pts Saved65.4%+14.8pp50.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+1.9pp50.4%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

63.3%1st Serve In—62.9%

68.4%1st Serve Won—68.5%

54.6%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp52.9%

5.3Aces / Match+2.72.6

3.3Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

41.5%Return Pts Won+3.5pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.3%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp48.3%

65.4%Break Pts Saved+14.8pp50.6%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+1.9pp50.4%

Rafael Jodar #24Spain2Kei Nishikori #721Japan0

Player Profiles

Rafael Jodar

Kei Nishikori

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Kei Nishikori +4.5

Over 9.5

Over 21.5

Rafael Jodar 2-1

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar

Over 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Rafael Jodar

Kei Nishikori

Stat Battle