United StatesWTA WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Diana Shnaider #18Russia2Anastasia Potapova #27Austria0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Thu 30 Jul 2026, 23:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDiana Shnaider · 9 places

Diana Shnaider

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 11 on May 5, 2025 and is currently coached by Sascha Bajin. Her 2024 WTA singles titles came across hard, grass and clay.

Current ranking: #18
Peak ranking: #11 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Anastasia Potapova

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 21 on June 19, 2023. The ITF lists grass as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #27
Peak ranking: #21 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 15:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Potapova's superior recent form (10-5 vs. 8-7), stronger return game, and Shnaider's doubles fatigue give her the edge.

Back Potapova to win at 2.10 and over 20.5 total games, but avoid over 22.5 games and Shnaider 2-0.

Context

Shnaider won her July 27 doubles opener 6-3, 6-4.
- She is scheduled for another doubles match not before 3:00 p.m. Washington time on July 29.
- This singles match kicks off on July 30, leaving roughly 20 hours between the doubles finish and singles start.
- No injury or illness is reported, but the tight schedule may reduce her physical readiness.
Potapova's last-15 record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs Shnaider's 8-7 (53.3%).
- Potapova wins 47.4% of return points compared to Shnaider's 45.3%.
- Potapova's first-serve points won: 65.8% vs Shnaider's 58.1%.
- Potapova has taken the first set in 10 of her last 15 matches; Shnaider in 8 of 15.
Potapova defeated Venus Williams 6-3, 6-3 on July 28 in the first round.
- She faced zero break points and won in 1 hour 15 minutes.
- The win snapped a three-match losing streak that included two retirements.
- Potapova is out of doubles, so she has no additional match before this one.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Potapova's superior recent form (10-5 vs 8-7) and stronger return game (47.4% return points won) give her an edge on hard court, where she also holds a H2H win.
- Potapova's last15 overall record: 66.7% (10-5) vs Shnaider's 53.3% (8-7).
- Potapova's last15 return points won: 47.4% vs Shnaider's 45.3%.
- Potapova's last15 break point conversion: 47.3% vs Shnaider's 52.0%, but Potapova creates more opportunities (150 BP faced vs 127).
- H2H: 1-1, but Potapova won their only hard-court meeting in 2024.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnastasia PotapovaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 21 games per match in recent form, and a significant portion of their matches go to three sets, making over 20.5 games likely.
- Shnaider's last15 matches: average 22.4 games per match (336 total games / 15).
- Potapova's last15 matches: average 21.7 games per match (325 total games / 15).
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches: Shnaider 40% (6/15), Potapova 33% (5/15).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first set length for both players hovers around 9.5 games, and their competitive styles often lead to tight opening sets.
- Shnaider's last15 first set average: 9.7 games (based on 15 matches, 146 total games in first sets).
- Potapova's last15 first set average: 9.3 games (140 total games in first sets).
- Combined first set average: 9.5 games, with 60% of sets exceeding 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shnaider's consistent game-winning rate and the tight H2H history suggest she will keep the match close, covering a +2.5 game handicap.
- Shnaider's last15 average games won per match: 11.7 (175/15).
- Potapova's last15 average games won per match: 11.8 (177/15).
- H2H matches: both decided by 4 games or fewer.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDiana Shnaider +2.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Potapova's higher first set win rate in recent matches and stronger first serve performance suggest she is slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Potapova's last15 first set win rate: 66.7% (10/15 matches) vs Shnaider's 53.3% (8/15).
- Potapova's last15 hard-court sample: 1 match, won first set 6-3.
- Shnaider's last15 first serve points won: 58.1% vs Potapova's 65.8%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAnastasia PotapovaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, averaging under 3 combined per match, making under 5.5 aces highly probable.
- Shnaider's last15 aces per match: 1.1 (16 total).
- Potapova's last15 aces per match: 1.5 (23 total).
- Combined average aces per match: 2.6, with only 2 matches exceeding 5 aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Potapova's high double fault rate (4.2 per match) combined with Shnaider's 3.1 pushes the expected total over 7.5 in most matches.
- Shnaider's last15 double faults per match: 3.1 (46 total).
- Potapova's last15 double faults per match: 4.2 (63 total).
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.3, with 60% of matches exceeding 7.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Anastasia Potapova has been highly reliable when projected to win

She has fulfilled 10 of 13 such predictions. The average estimated probability in fulfilled matches was 70.4%, compared to 60.3% in the three losses, indicating that higher-confidence projections have been more accurate. The current probability of 58% sits within the historical range of 55–82%.

Recent evidence for Anastasia Potapova13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·WTA Washington

#28Anastasia Potapova2-0#469Venus Williams

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·78%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#28Anastasia Potapova2-0#469Venus Williams

Anastasia Potapova to win

78%probability

Anastasia Potapova won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro2-0#28Anastasia Potapova

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·62%

Missed

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro2-0#28Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova to win

62%probability

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro won

Missed

10 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#30Anastasia Potapova2-1#128Suzan Lamens

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·78%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#30Anastasia Potapova2-1#128Suzan Lamens

Anastasia Potapova to win

78%probability

Anastasia Potapova won

Matched

1 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#30Anastasia Potapova1-2#24Anna Kalinskaya

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·55%

Missed

1 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#30Anastasia Potapova1-2#24Anna Kalinskaya

Anastasia Potapova to win

55%probability

Anna Kalinskaya won

Missed

28 May·WTA Roland Garros

#71Katie Boulter1-2#30Anastasia Potapova

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·72%

Matched

28 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#71Katie Boulter1-2#30Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova to win

72%probability

Anastasia Potapova won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-1 6-3Diana Shnaider#18vAnastasia Potapova#27Jan 6, 2026

L7-5 6-4Diana Shnaider#18vAnastasia Potapova#27Apr 23, 2024

2 total meetings

Diana Shnaider

8W 7L

6-4 4-6 6-2#70Liudmila Samsonova

7-5 6-1#85Eva Lys

6-4 6-4#30Clara Tauson

6-2 6-7(2) 6-3#41Nikola Bartunkova

7-6(4) 6-4#21Maja Chwalinska

3-6 7-5 6-0#1Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 3-6 6-0#22Madison Keys

7-5 6-1#44Oleksandra Oliynykova

7-6(3) 6-1#47Mccartney Kessler

6-4 6-1#83Renata Zarazua

6-1 6-2#13Naomi Osaka

5-7 6-1 6-1#72Talia Gibson

6-2 7-6(6)#14Belinda Bencic

3-6 7-5 6-1#59Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-3 6-4#2Elena Rybakina

Anastasia Potapova

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#664Venus Williams

6-2 6-3#59Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-1 ret.#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 2-0 ret.#52Zeynep Sonmez

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#145Suzan Lamens

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#20Anna Kalinskaya

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-2#69Katie Boulter

6-1 6-2#76Maya Joint

7-6(6) 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 6-2#70Liudmila Samsonova

6-3 6-2#6Karolina Muchova

5-7 6-2 6-4#156Dalma Galfi

4-6 6-4 6-2#41Nikola Bartunkova

6-1 7-5#464Irina-Camelia Begu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DSDiana ShnaiderShnaider

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Anastasia PotapovaPotapovaAP

Diana Shnaider carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Potapova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In64.9%+12.5pp52.4%

1st Serve Won58.1%+7.7pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won50.5%+5.9pp44.6%

Aces / Match1.1+0.41.5

Double Faults / Match3.11.1 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.3%+2.1pp47.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.0%+4.7pp47.3%

Break Pts Saved54.4%+1.5pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.2pp51.6%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 8 vs 5

Winners / Match8/15 · 5/1521.4—21.2

Unforced Errors / Match8/15 · 5/1525.412.2 fewer37.6

Net Pts Won8/15 · 5/1557.0%+13.0pp70.0%

Serve · 3–2

64.9%1st Serve In+12.5pp52.4%

58.1%1st Serve Won+7.7pp65.8%

50.5%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp44.6%

1.1Aces / Match+0.41.5

3.1Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer4.2

Return · 0–1

45.3%Return Pts Won+2.1pp47.4%

Pressure · 2–0

52.0%Break Pts Converted+4.7pp47.3%

54.4%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.2pp51.6%

Shot making · 1–1 · 1 evenLimited data · 8 vs 5

21.4Winners8/15 · 5/15—21.2

25.4Unforced Errors8/15 · 5/1512.2 fewer37.6

57.0%Net Pts Won8/15 · 5/15+13.0pp70.0%

Diana Shnaider

Anastasia Potapova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova 2-1

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Diana Shnaider

Anastasia Potapova

Stat Battle