MexicoATP Los CabosFinished

Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #171Australia2Karen Khachanov #26Russia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Thu 30 Jul 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaren Khachanov · 145 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Tomic reached a career-high No. 17 in January 2016 and is No. 171 in the supplied structured data. He is a 196 cm right-hander with four ATP singles titles.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Karen Khachanov

Russia

Khachanov reached a career-high No. 8 in July 2019 and is No. 26 in the supplied structured data. He is a 198 cm right-hander and a seven-time ATP singles champion.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #8 · 2019
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 06:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Karen Khachanov’s superior ranking, serve, and first-set dominance make him the likely winner over Bernard Tomic, who has feasted on lower-ranked opponents.

The best betting value is over 21.5 total games, as both players’ hold rates suggest a competitive match, while Khachanov 2-0 offers a slight edge. Avoid the game handicap and Tomic set 2 winner due to inconsistent margins and fitness concerns.

Context

Withdrew from qualifying vs. Boyer (July 27) due to stomach flu.
- Returned ~24 hours later and beat Hernandez 6-1, 6-0 in 47 minutes.
- No reported physical issues in the quick win, but illness recovery timeline is tight.
Last-15 hard-court record: 7-1, with wins over opponents ranked 189, 226, 238, 492, 498, 529, 743.
- Only loss was a retirement vs. No. 162 Boyer (1-3 ret.).
- Career hard-court win rate: 56.1%, but recent success is against lower-tier players.
Khachanov's last match was on grass at Wimbledon (July 4).
- Tomic played a three-set qualifier and a main-draw match in Los Cabos.
- Khachanov's last-15 hard-court stats are not available; overall last-15 includes clay and grass.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Karen Khachanov

1.25fair 1.18

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Khachanov's superior ranking and consistent performance against top-100 opponents give him a clear edge over Tomic, who has feasted on weaker competition.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Karen Khachanov

1.35fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Khachanov's high first-set win conversion rate and strong serving numbers make him likely to take the opening set against a lower-ranked opponent.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Karen Khachanov 2-0

1.73fair 1.67

BetBugs 45% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Khachanov's superior serve and return stats on hard courts, combined with Tomic's vulnerability in straight sets against stronger opponents, support a 2-0 outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Khachanov's superior ranking (26 vs. 171) and consistent performance against top-100 opponents give him a clear edge, despite Tomic's recent hard-court form against lower-tier players.
- Khachanov's overall last-15 record: 9-6 (60%), with a 61.7% sets-won rate and 53.5% games-won rate.
- Tomic's overall last-15 record: 10-5 (66.7%), but 7 of those wins came on hard courts against opponents ranked outside the top 150.
- Khachanov's career hard-court win percentage: 184-? (approx. 60%), while Tomic's is 323-? (approx. 56%), but Khachanov has consistently faced higher-ranked opposition.
- Khachanov's last-15 break-point save rate: 69.2% vs. Tomic's 61.3%, indicating stronger clutch serving.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKaren KhachanovEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Given both players' decent serve hold rates and Tomic's recent hard-court matches often going over 21.5 games, a competitive match is likely.
- Tomic's last-15 hard-court matches averaged 21.4 games per match, with 5 of 8 matches exceeding 21.5 games.
- Khachanov's last-15 matches averaged 31.0 games per match, but many were on clay; his grass matches averaged 35.8 games.
- Both players have shown the ability to extend sets: Tomic's last-15 break-point save rate is 61.3%, Khachanov's is 69.2%.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
With both players serving well recently, the first set is likely to be tight, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Tomic's last-15 hard-court set1 average games: 9.6, with 5 of 8 sets going over 9.5.
- Khachanov's last-15 overall set1 average games: 10.1, with 9 of 15 sets over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages above 72% in recent matches, suggesting holds are likely.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set could remain competitive if the first set is close, as both players have similar second-set game averages around 10.
- Tomic's last-15 hard-court set2 average games: 9.8, with 4 of 8 sets over 9.5.
- Khachanov's last-15 overall set2 average games: 9.9, with 8 of 15 sets over 9.5.
- Both players have shown resilience in second sets, with Tomic winning 55% of second-serve points and Khachanov 54%.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Khachanov's high first-set win conversion rate and strong serving numbers make him likely to take the opening set against a lower-ranked opponent.
- Khachanov's career first-set win conversion rate: 81%, indicating he starts matches strongly.
- Tomic's last-15 first-serve points won on hard courts: 76.2%, but his return points won is only 38.5%.
- Khachanov's last-15 first-serve points won overall: 72.6%, with a 7.2 aces per match average, suggesting he can hold serve effectively early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKaren KhachanovEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double fault rates in recent matches, making under 4.5 total double faults likely.
- Khachanov's last-15 double faults per match: 1.5, Tomic's: 2.1.
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.6, well under 4.5.
- Both players have first-serve percentages around 66%, reducing double fault opportunities.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of double-digit aces, especially on hard courts, the total aces should exceed 12.5.
- Khachanov's last-15 aces per match: 7.2, with a high of 10 on grass; Tomic's last-15 aces per match: 5.1.
- Combined average aces per match from last-15: 12.3, but Khachanov's hard-court ace rate is likely higher than his clay-heavy overall average.
- Khachanov's career ace count: 5258 in 779 matches (6.75 per match), Tomic's: 5523 in 882 matches (6.26 per match).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players having decent serve hold rates and a history of tiebreaks, there's a reasonable chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Tomic's last-15 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak in 3 of 8 matches (37.5%).
- Khachanov's last-15 overall matches featured a tiebreak in 7 of 15 matches (46.7%).
- Both players have career tiebreak win percentages above 50% (Tomic 57%, Khachanov 52%), indicating they often play close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Bernard Tomic

10W 5L

6-1 6-0#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#492Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#162Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#189Mark Lajal

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#529Spencer Johnson

7-6(1) 6-3#743Matthew Forbes

7-6(2) 6-4#238James McCabe

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#226Darwin Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-2#96Adam Walton

6-2 6-3#234Braden Shick

6-4 6-4#126Christopher O'Connell

6-3 6-2#254Kaichi Uchida

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(1)—Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#101Benjamin Bonzi

6-2 6-3#574Alec Deckers

Karen Khachanov

9W 6L

0-6 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#9Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4 6-4#45Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#163Billy Harris

1-6 6-4 6-4#46Ethan Quinn

7-5 5-7 6-2 6-7(2) 6-2#106Jesper De Jong

7-6(5) 5-7 6-1 7-6(4)#91Marco Trungelliti

6-3 7-6(3) 6-0#127Arthur Gea

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)#29Ugo Humbert

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#90Hugo Gaston

6-1 1-6 6-2#13Casper Ruud

6-1 7-6(2)#98Dino Prizmic

5-7 6-4 6-4#69Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-4 6-4#89Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 7-6(11)#17Jakub Mensik

6-2 6-3#96Adam Walton

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Karen KhachanovKhachanovKK

Karen Khachanov carries the stronger recent form — Bernard Tomic's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In66.5%—66.5%

1st Serve Won73.1%—72.6%

2nd Serve Won55.0%+1.0pp54.0%

Aces / Match5.1+2.17.2

Double Faults / Match2.10.6 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.7%+1.0pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.5%+3.4pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+7.9pp69.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.2%—52.2%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

66.5%1st Serve In—66.5%

73.1%1st Serve Won—72.6%

55.0%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp54.0%

5.1Aces / Match+2.17.2

2.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

37.7%Return Pts Won+1.0pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

41.5%Break Pts Converted+3.4pp38.1%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+7.9pp69.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.2%Total Pts Won—52.2%

Bernard Tomic

Karen Khachanov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Over 9.5

Karen Khachanov

Karen Khachanov

Karen Khachanov 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Bernard Tomic

Karen Khachanov

Stat Battle