MexicoATP Los CabosFinished

Predictions graded

Sho Shimabukuro #94Japan1Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #320Mexico2

Sets 7-6 · 5-7 · 2-6Wed 29 Jul 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSho Shimabukuro · 226 places

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 89 on 22 June 2026. His searched profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #89 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 196 on 22 September 2025. His searched profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #320
Peak ranking: #196 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 09:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, fresh and in strong hard-court form, holds a clear edge over Sho Shimabukuro, who returns from a four-week break and a surface switch.

Back Pacheco Mendez to win at 2.20, with value also on over 22.5 total games and a tiebreak in the match.

Context

Last match was 30 June on grass; no competitive tennis for nearly four weeks.
- Recent hard-court sample is only two matches (1-1) from late April, so current hard-court level is unclear.
- Last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%), but 11 of those matches were on grass.
Last 5 hard-court matches: 4-1 record, 77.8% sets won, 66.7% games won.
- In those 4 tracked hard-court matches, he won 85.7% of first-serve points and 52.8% of return points.
- Opponents in that run were ranked outside the top 400, so the level jump is untested.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Pacheco Mendez's stronger recent form, especially on hard courts (80% win rate in last 5 hard matches), and superior return stats give him the edge over Shimabukuro, who has limited recent hard-court data and a 4-week competitive gap.
- Pacheco Mendez last15 overall record 66.7% (10-5) vs Shimabukuro 53.3% (8-7)
- Pacheco Mendez last15 hard-court record 80% (4-1) with 66.7% games won
- Shimabukuro last15 hard-court record 50% (1-1) with only 2 matches tracked
- Pacheco Mendez last15 return points won 40.2% vs Shimabukuro 34.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Pacheco Mendez's edge, Shimabukuro's high games-per-match average and near-even games won percentage suggest he will keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.
- Shimabukuro last15 overall games won 50.5%
- Pacheco Mendez last15 overall games won 57.8%
- Shimabukuro last15 average games per match 24.8, Pacheco Mendez 22.1
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSho Shimabukuro +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing competitive recent form and no dominant edge in quick finishes, a close match exceeding 21.5 games is likely, supported by Shimabukuro's high average games per match.
- Shimabukuro last15 overall average games per match 24.8
- Pacheco Mendez last15 overall average games per match 22.1
- Both players have 50%+ deciding set rates in recent windows
- No H2H history to suggest quick matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average around 9.5 games, and solid break point saving suggests a tight opening set, making over 9.5 games probable.
- Shimabukuro last15 overall first set average games 9.8
- Pacheco Mendez last15 overall first set average games 9.3
- Both players have break point save rates above 60% in recent window
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Pacheco Mendez's dominant hard-court serve numbers (85.7% first serve points won) and higher overall point-winning rate suggest he can start strongly against a potentially rusty Shimabukuro.
- Pacheco Mendez last15 hard-court first serve points won 85.7%
- Shimabukuro last15 overall first serve points won 76.9%
- Pacheco Mendez last15 hard-court total points won 64.2%
- Shimabukuro last15 overall break points saved 61.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRodrigo Pacheco MendezEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive deciding set records, and their recent set win percentages are close enough to suggest a three-setter is more likely than a straight-sets result.
- Shimabukuro last15 deciding set win rate 56%
- Pacheco Mendez last15 deciding set win rate 48%
- Shimabukuro last15 sets won 54.1%, Pacheco Mendez 61.1%
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 6 aces per match, and with a likely three-setter, the total aces should exceed 12.5.
- Shimabukuro last15 overall aces per match 6.9
- Pacheco Mendez last15 overall aces per match 5.1
- Combined average aces per match 12.0 in recent windows
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages from recent matches sit just above 5.5, and a longer match would push the total over this line.
- Shimabukuro last15 overall double faults per match 2.7
- Pacheco Mendez last15 overall double faults per match 3.0
- Combined average double faults per match 5.7 in recent windows
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing competitive sets and average tiebreak rates, at least one tiebreak is likely in a close match.
- Shimabukuro career tiebreak win rate 46%
- Pacheco Mendez career tiebreak win rate 41%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance52%

Sho Shimabukuro

8W 7L

7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#79Jaime Faria

6-4 7-5#19Frances Tiafoe

6-4 3-6 6-4#67Tallon Griekspoor

4-6 6-3 6-4#8Ben Shelton

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#899Nick Kyrgios

6-4 6-2#52Quentin Halys

7-6(4) 6-3#136Jurij Rodionov

7-5 6-4#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(6) 6-3#72Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 6-3#203Elias Ymer

7-6(3) 6-4#114Shintaro Mochizuki

2-6 6-4 7-5#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-2#52Quentin Halys

5-7 6-0 6-3#199Keegan Smith

6-3 6-0#380Yuta Shimizu

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#717Felipe Meligeni Alves

2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5)#717Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-2 6-2—Segundo Goity Zapico

5-7 6-2 6-4#641Bruno Fernandez

6-4 6-3#411Mees Rottgering

6-4 6-1#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 6-1#535Timo Legout

6-1 6-1—Alan Raul Sau Franco

5-1 ret.—Rodrigo Reyna

2-6 6-4 7-6(1)#208Luka Pavlovic

6-4 3-6 7-5#469Bor Artnak

6-2 6-2#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

4-6 6-3 7-6(7)#83James Duckworth

3-6 6-1 6-4#273Juan Pablo Ficovich

4-6 6-3 6-0#208Luka Pavlovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SSSho ShimabukuroShimabukuro

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Rodrigo Pacheco MendezMendezRM

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez carries the stronger recent form — Sho Shimabukuro's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.2%+1.0pp58.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1576.9%—77.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.2%+8.0pp60.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/156.9+1.85.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.70.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1534.9%+5.3pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1539.6%+6.6pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1561.9%+6.1pp68.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%+4.2pp54.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp58.2%

76.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—77.4%

52.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.0pp60.2%

6.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.85.1

2.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

34.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp40.2%

Pressure · 0–2

39.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+6.6pp46.2%

61.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.1pp68.0%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp54.4%

Sho Shimabukuro #94Japan1Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #320Mexico2

Player Profiles

Sho Shimabukuro

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez +1.5

Over 22.5

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Sho Shimabukuro

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Stat Battle