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Predictions graded

Shintaro Mochizuki #116Japan2Charles Broom #280United Kingdom1

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 6-4Wed 29 Jul 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageShintaro Mochizuki · 164 places

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Former world No. 1 junior and 2019 Wimbledon boys' champion. Reached a career-high No. 92 in November 2025 and made the Wimbledon fourth round in July 2026 after qualifying.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Charles Broom

United Kingdom

Former Dartmouth and Baylor player. Reached a career-high No. 235 in June 2024, and his current ranking remains below that peak entering Vancouver.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: #235 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Mochizuki is the favorite based on ranking and Wimbledon form, but his hard-court vulnerabilities and Broom’s competitiveness suggest a close match.

Back Broom +3.5 games and consider Mochizuki 2-1 for value, while avoiding the short moneyline and 2-0 prices.

Context

Mochizuki won 8 of his last 11 matches, all on grass, including wins over Rafael Jodar (ranked 25) and Ethan Quinn (45).
- His last hard-court match was a straight-sets loss to Liam Draxl (ranked 244) on 25 July, ending a 3-match hard-court winning streak.
- The Wimbledon run required five three-set matches, adding physical and mental fatigue before the surface switch.
Mochizuki saved only 11 of 27 break points (40.7%) in his last four hard-court matches.
- Broom converted 44.9% of break points on hard courts in his last five matches.
- Mochizuki's first-serve percentage on hard courts is just 52.1%, leading to more second-serve pressure.
Mochizuki's last four hard-court matches: 3-1 record, all three wins in three sets.
- Broom's last five hard-court matches: three went to a deciding set.
- Their only H2H meeting (grass, 2024) also went three sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Shintaro Mochizuki

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Mochizuki's superior recent form and ranking give him a clear edge, but the odds imply a higher win probability than his recent performance suggests.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Mochizuki's superior recent form (73.3% win rate in last 15, including deep Wimbledon run) and higher ranking (116 vs 280) give him a clear edge, despite Broom's solid career hard-court record.
- Mochizuki's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%) vs Broom's 8-7 (53.3%)
- Mochizuki's last15 hard-court record: 3-1 (75%) with 51.1% games won; Broom's last15 hard: 3-2 (60%) with 50.4% games won
- Mochizuki's recent form includes Wimbledon R4 run (wins over Jodar, Quinn) and a 3-1 start in Vancouver qualifying; Broom lost his last match to Toby Samuel
- Career hard-court win%: Mochizuki 130-98 (57.0%) vs Broom 136-82 (62.4%), but Mochizuki's recent level is higher
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonShintaro MochizukiEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tight matches recently, with average total games above 22 in their last 15, and their only H2H meeting went three sets, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Mochizuki's last15 matches average 23.1 games per match; Broom's last15 average 22.8 games
- Both players have competitive recent matches: Mochizuki's last four hard-court matches averaged 22.5 games; Broom's last five hard-court matches averaged 24.6 games
- H2H in 2024 went three sets with 31 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Broom's competitiveness and Mochizuki's tendency for close matches (only one blowout win in recent hard-court matches) make Broom +3.5 games a strong play, as he should keep the match within a few games.
- Mochizuki's last15 average games won margin: +1.5 per match; Broom's last15: +0.4
- In hard-court matches, Mochizuki's average margin: +1.0 games; Broom's: -0.2 games
- Broom has covered +3.5 in 4 of his last 5 hard-court matches; Mochizuki has only won by more than 3.5 games in 1 of his last 4 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCharles Broom +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively on hard courts (Mochizuki 68.7% first-serve points won, Broom 64.1%), the first set is likely to be tight, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Mochizuki's last15 hard-court first-set average: 10.0 games (based on 4 matches: 6-0, 6-4, 6-2, 4-6)
- Broom's last15 hard-court first-set average: 10.2 games (based on 5 matches: 6-7, 6-2, 2-6, 2-6, 2-6)
- Both players have strong first-serve numbers on hard courts, limiting early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive as both players adjust, with neither dominating on return (Mochizuki 44.9% return points won, Broom 44.0% on hard), leading to a set with at least 10 games.
- Mochizuki's last15 hard-court second-set average: 9.8 games; Broom's last15 hard-court second-set average: 10.0 games
- Both players have shown ability to bounce back in second sets: Mochizuki won second set in 3 of 4 hard-court matches; Broom won second set in 3 of 5
- H2H second set went to 10 games (6-4)
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Mochizuki has started matches strongly in his last 15 (winning first set in 11 of 15), and his hard-court first-serve effectiveness (68.7%) should help him secure the opener against Broom's slightly weaker serve numbers.
- Mochizuki's last15 first-set win rate: 11/15 (73.3%) based on match results; Broom's last15 first-set win rate: 8/15 (53.3%)
- Mochizuki's last15 hard-court first-serve points won: 68.7%; Broom's last15 hard: 64.1%
- Mochizuki's career first-set win conversion: 83% vs Broom's 87%, but recent form favors Mochizuki
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostShintaro MochizukiEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mochizuki's high double fault rate on hard courts (5.0 per match) combined with Broom's 3.6 per match pushes the expected total well over 5.5, especially in a potentially long match.
- Mochizuki's last15 double faults per match: 3.7 (5.0 on hard); Broom's last15: 2.4 (3.6 on hard)
- Combined average double faults per match in last15: 6.1; on hard courts: 8.6
- Mochizuki's double fault rate is notably higher on hard courts (5.0 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of hitting aces (Mochizuki 4.8 per match, Broom 3.6), and the hard-court surface aiding serves, the total aces should exceed 8.5, especially if the match goes three sets.
- Mochizuki's last15 aces per match: 4.8 (3.0 on hard); Broom's last15 aces per match: 3.6 (2.6 on hard)
- Combined average aces per match in last15: 8.4, but H2H had 14 aces total (Mochizuki 4, Broom 10)
- Hard-court surface typically yields more aces; both players have first-serve points won above 64%
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively and a history of tight sets (including a tiebreak in their H2H), a tiebreak is likely in this competitive match.
- Mochizuki's last15 tiebreak record: 5-2 (71.4%); Broom's last15: 3-3 (50%)
- Both players have played tiebreaks in ~33% of their recent matches (Mochizuki 5 of 15, Broom 6 of 15)
- H2H had a first-set tiebreak; both players have strong first-serve points won on hard courts
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-7(9) 6-4 6-2Shintaro Mochizuki#116vCharles Broom#280Jun 11, 2024

1 total meetings

Shintaro Mochizuki

11W 4L

6-0 6-3#244Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(4)#315Johannus Monday

6-2 2-6 6-4#665Duncan Chan

6-3 4-6 6-1#301Philip Sekulic

6-3 7-6(0) 6-3#1Jannik Sinner

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#25Rafael Jodar

6-2 7-6(6) 7-5#45Ethan Quinn

6-3 6-0 6-0#257Max Basing

1-6 7-5 2-6 6-3 6-1#161Clement Tabur

6-2 4-6 6-3#178Gauthier Onclin

6-3 7-6(4)#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-3 6-4#182Remy Bertola

7-6(3) 7-5#140Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(5)#120Michael Zheng

4-6 6-3 6-4#686Sander Jong

Charles Broom

8W 7L

7-6(4) 6-2#127Toby Samuel

6-2 6-4#216Rio Noguchi

2-6 7-6(8) 6-2#158Zhizhen Zhang

2-6 6-3 6-2#400Edward Winter

6-2 4-6 7-5#216Rio Noguchi

3-6 7-6(3) 6-2#85Marcos Giron

6-3 4-6 6-1#114Titouan Droguet

6-1 6-4#213Andrea Guerrieri

6-0 6-0—Dylan Leeman

6-2 6-2#123Henrique Rocha

2-6 7-6(7) 6-3#501Daniel Evans

6-3 6-1#458Quinn Vandecasteele

6-3 7-6(3)#208Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-2—James Beaven

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#176Ugo Blanchet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SMShintaro MochizukiMochizuki

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Charles BroomBroomCB

Shintaro Mochizuki carries the stronger recent form — Charles Broom's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In51.6%+10.2pp61.8%

1st Serve Won73.3%+5.0pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won47.9%+4.1pp52.0%

Aces / Match4.8+1.23.6

Double Faults / Match3.71.3 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.4%+2.6pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.2%+8.1pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+5.5pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.2pp50.4%

Serve · 2–3

51.6%1st Serve In+10.2pp61.8%

73.3%1st Serve Won+5.0pp68.3%

47.9%2nd Serve Won+4.1pp52.0%

4.8Aces / Match+1.23.6

3.7Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won+2.6pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

44.2%Break Pts Converted+8.1pp36.1%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.2pp50.4%

Shintaro Mochizuki #116Japan2Charles Broom #280United Kingdom1

Player Profiles

Shintaro Mochizuki

Charles Broom

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Shintaro Mochizuki 2-0

Shintaro Mochizuki 2-1

Shintaro Mochizuki

Shintaro Mochizuki

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Shintaro Mochizuki @ 1.40

Shintaro Mochizuki 2-0 @ 1.90

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki

Charles Broom

Stat Battle