Radu Albot #519Moldova11 – 2Yanki Erel #287Türkiye2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Erel's dominant recent hard-court form (12-2, 85.7% win rate) and superior serve/return metrics (54.1% total points won) give him a clear edge over Albot, whose last15 overall record is below 50% and whose hard-court sample is just one match.

• Erel last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Albot 7-8 (46.7%)
• Erel last15 hard record 12-2 (85.7%), Albot 1-0 (100% but only 1 match)
• Erel last15 total points won 54.1% vs Albot 49.4%
• Erel ranking 287 vs Albot 519

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Erel's strong serving on hard courts often leads to quick holds, and Albot's lower first-serve points won (61.2%) could result in an early break, keeping the first set under 9.5 games.

• Erel last15 hard: 8 of 14 first sets had ≤9 games
• Albot last15 overall: 9 of 15 first sets had ≤9 games
• Erel last15 hard first-serve points won 71.2%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Erel's strong serve and return numbers on hard courts in the last15 window suggest he can start fast, while Albot's overall first-serve points won (61.2%) is notably lower.

• Erel last15 hard first-serve points won 71.2%, Albot last15 overall 61.2%
• Erel last15 hard return points won 45.8%, Albot last15 overall 41.8%
• Erel career first-set win conversion 86%, Albot 84%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Erel's ace rate on hard courts (3.9 per match) is the primary driver, and even a modest contribution from Albot pushes the total over 5.5 in a likely two-set match.

• Erel last15 hard aces per match 3.9, Albot last15 overall 0.8
• Combined average aces per match ~4.7 in recent windows
• Erel career aces 1131 in 407 matches (2.8 per match), Albot 1877 in 1170 (1.6 per match)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 2.5 double faults per match in their recent windows, making over 5.5 likely even in a straight-set match.

• Albot last15 overall double faults per match 3.1, Erel last15 hard 2.6
• Combined average double faults per match ~5.7 in recent windows
• Albot career double faults 2396 in 1170 matches (2.0 per match), Erel 923 in 407 (2.3 per match)