CanadaVancouver - CanadaFinished

Predictions graded

Jack Pinnington Jones #171United Kingdom0Toby Samuel #127United Kingdom2

Sets 5-7 · 1-6Wed 29 Jul 2026, 01:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageToby Samuel · 44 places

Jack Pinnington Jones

United Kingdom

British 23-year-old with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 132 reached on May 18, 2026. LTA lists grass as his favourite surface, and his recent public results show a shorter late-grass run before Vancouver.

Current ranking: #171
Peak ranking: #132 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 182 cm

Toby Samuel

United Kingdom

British 23-year-old with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 123 reached on June 22, 2026. LTA lists hard as his favourite surface, and his recent run included an Eastbourne semi-final before a tight five-set Wimbledon loss to Jakub Mensik.

Current ranking: #127
Peak ranking: #123 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Toby Samuel's dominant hard-court form (5-0, 70.5% games won) and superior return stats give him a clear edge over Jack Pinnington Jones, who has struggled recently (33.3% win rate).

Back Samuel to win 2-0 and under 21.5 total games, as his efficient straight-set wins on hard make a quick match likely.

Context

Samuel's last15 hard-court record is 5-0, with 100% sets won and 70.5% games won.
- He won 59.9% of total points on hard, returning at 49.4% and winning 83.6% of first-serve points.
- All five wins came in straight sets, with an average of just 12.4 games per match.
Pinnington Jones's last15 overall record is 5-10, with 47.4% games won and 48.4% total points won.
- He lost 7 of his 10 losses in straight sets, and his return points won is just 37.3%.
- His last five matches include losses to Brandon Nakashima, Jack Draper, and Denis Shapovalov, with only one win over Marco Trungelliti.
Samuel's hard-court return points won is 49.4% in his last 4 tracked matches.
- Pinnington Jones's overall first-serve points won is 68.1%, and he averages 5.3 double faults per match.
- Samuel's break point conversion on hard is 45.5%, while Pinnington Jones saves only 57.9% of break points overall.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Samuel's dominant hard-court form (5-0, 70.5% games) and superior return stats give a clear edge over Pinnington Jones's poor recent overall form (33.3% win rate).
- Toby Samuel last15 on hard: 100% win rate (5-0), 70.5% games won, 59.9% total points won.
- Jack Pinnington Jones last15 overall: 33.3% win rate (5-10), 47.4% games won, 48.4% total points won.
- Samuel career hard win% 90-14 (86.5%), Pinnington Jones 60-38 (61.2%).
- Samuel return points won on hard last15: 49.4% vs Pinnington Jones overall 37.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonToby SamuelEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's efficient straight-set wins on hard and Pinnington Jones's struggles to win games suggest a quick match under 21.5 games.
- Samuel hard last15 average games per match: 12.4 (62 games in 5 matches).
- Pinnington Jones last15 average games per match: 12.7 (190 games in 15 matches).
- Samuel's last 5 hard matches all straight-set wins with 12 or 13 games total.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's large average game margin on hard and Pinnington Jones's negative overall margin support a -3.5 handicap cover.
- Samuel hard last15 average game margin: +5.2 games per match (62-26).
- Pinnington Jones last15 overall average game margin: -0.7 games per match (190-211).
- Samuel's last 5 hard matches: won by 6, 5, 4, 11, 10 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonToby Samuel -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's strong serving and quick starts on hard could lead to a first set under 9.5 games, though Pinnington Jones may keep it close.
- Samuel hard last15 set scores: 6-4, 7-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 (average 8.6 games).
- Pinnington Jones last15 first-set average: 9.3 games.
- Samuel's first-set dominance on hard with 83.6% first-serve points won.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Samuel's elite first-set conversion rate and dominant hard-court serving suggest he will start strongly against Pinnington Jones's weaker recent form.
- Samuel career first-set win conversion: 90%.
- Pinnington Jones last15 first-serve points won: 68.1%, Samuel hard last15: 83.6%.
- Samuel hard last15 break point conversion: 45.5%, Pinnington Jones overall: 38.3%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonToby SamuelEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Samuel's hard-court dominance with all straight-set wins and Pinnington Jones's frequent straight-set losses point to a 2-0 outcome.
- Samuel last15 on hard: 5 straight-set wins in 5 matches.
- Pinnington Jones last15: lost 7 of 10 losses in straight sets.
- Samuel career deciding set win%: 49%, Pinnington Jones: 52%.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonToby Samuel 2-0Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players' recent trends favor straight-set matches, with Samuel's hard-court efficiency making under 2.5 sets likely.
- Samuel last15 on hard: 5 matches, all under 2.5 sets.
- Pinnington Jones last15: 10 of 15 matches under 2.5 sets.
- Samuel's hard-court matches average 12.4 games, indicating quick finishes.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Samuel's strong hold game on hard and Pinnington Jones's inconsistent serve make a tiebreak less likely, though not impossible.
- Samuel hard last15: 1 tiebreak in 5 matches.
- Pinnington Jones last15: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (27% of matches).
- Samuel's dominant hard-court serving reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pinnington Jones's high double fault rate (5.3 per match) drives the combined total above 7.5, even with Samuel's lower rate.
- Pinnington Jones last15 double faults per match: 5.3.
- Samuel last15 double faults per match: 2.7.
- Combined average: 8.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4-5 aces per match, making over 8.5 total aces plausible if the match extends.
- Samuel last15 aces per match: 4.9, Pinnington Jones: 4.1.
- Combined average aces per match: 9.0.
- Samuel hard last15 aces per match: 4.5, Pinnington Jones overall: 4.1.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Jack Pinnington Jones

5W 10L

6-3 7-6(5) 7-5#32Brandon Nakashima

7-5 6-4#147Jack Draper

5-7 6-3 7-5#95Marco Trungelliti

6-4 4-6 7-6(3)#67Denis Shapovalov

7-5 5-7 6-3#300Filippo Romano

6-4 6-4#204Harry Wendelken

2-6 6-4 6-3#102Aleksandar Vukic

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5#195Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-1#174Colton Smith

6-3 6-7(4) 7-5#225Darwin Blanch

6-7(7) 7-6(4) 6-3#113Patrick Kypson

6-2 7-5#392Nerman Fatic

6-1 6-3#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 7-6(4)#225Darwin Blanch

6-4 6-4#652Jeff Wolf

Toby Samuel

10W 5L

6-4 6-2#244Liam Draxl

7-6(4) 6-2#280Charles Broom

6-3 7-6(5)#210Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-0 6-1#316Yosuke Watanuki

6-2 6-0—Mikael Arseneault

5-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#18Jakub Mensik

4-6 7-6(5) 6-2#34Zizou Bergs

6-3 6-4#50Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-1 7-6(7)#57Thiago Agustin Tirante

3-6 6-4 6-4#33Matteo Arnaldi

6-2 6-4#83Quentin Halys

6-0 6-2#36Arthur Fery

5-7 6-2 6-3#122Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-3#227August Holmgren

1-6 7-6(10) 6-4#134Kyrian Jacquet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JJJack Pinnington JonesJones

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Toby SamuelSamuelTS

Toby Samuel carries the stronger recent form — Jack Pinnington Jones's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1564.4%+0.8pp63.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1568.1%+4.7pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1543.8%+8.3pp52.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.1+0.84.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.32.6 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1537.3%+2.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.3%+4.6pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1557.9%+7.2pp65.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.4%+4.1pp52.5%

Serve · 1–4

64.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp63.6%

68.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp72.8%

43.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.3pp52.1%

4.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.84.9

5.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.6 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

37.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp40.1%

Pressure · 0–2

38.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.6pp42.9%

57.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.2pp65.1%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.1pp52.5%

Jack Pinnington Jones

Toby Samuel

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel

Toby Samuel 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Jack Pinnington Jones

Toby Samuel

Stat Battle