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Predictions graded

Anastasia Potapova #28Austria2Venus Williams #469United States0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Wed 29 Jul 2026, 01:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Potapova · 441 places

Anastasia Potapova

Austria

Right-handed and 1.75 metres tall, Potapova reached a career-high ranking of No. 21 on June 19, 2023. Her 2026 season includes a WTA 1000 semifinal in Madrid.

Current ranking: #28
Peak ranking: #21 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Venus Williams

United States

Right-handed and 1.85 metres tall, Williams first reached world No. 1 on February 25, 2002. Her 49 singles titles include five Wimbledon championships.

Current ranking: #469
Peak ranking: #1 · 2002
Current age: 46
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Potapova's superior recent form and strong return game make her a heavy favorite against a struggling Venus Williams, who is winless on hard courts in 2026.

The best betting angle is under 18.5 total games at 1.95, while avoiding the short odds on Potapova to win and the 2-0 set betting due to poor value.

Context

Williams' last-15 record is 1-14, with the lone win coming in July 2025.
- She is 0-6 on hard courts in 2026, losing to players ranked outside the top 50.
- Her return points won is just 38.6% in the last 15 matches, limiting her ability to break serve.
Potapova's last-15 return points won: 47.5% (506/1066).
- Williams' last-15 second serve points won: 33.8% (155/459).
- Williams averages 5.7 double faults per match, giving away free points.
Potapova's 2026 hard-court record: 5 wins, 7 losses.
- In her last 15 matches overall, she is 9-6, but only 1-4 on hard courts in that span (grass and clay results inflate the overall record).
- She has lost in straight sets in 5 of her 7 hard-court defeats this year.
Williams' last-15 aces per match: 3.9 (59 total).
- First-serve points won: 64.7% (434/671).
- Her first-serve percentage is 59.4%, so she gets enough first serves in to pressure opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Anastasia Potapova

1.12fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Potapova's vastly superior recent form and return game give her a decisive edge, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Anastasia Potapova

1.20fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Potapova's career first-set win conversion rate of 84% and Williams' weak second serve make Potapova likely to take the opener.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Anastasia Potapova 2-0

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Despite Potapova's straight-set trend, the odds heavily overrate a 2-0 win relative to our model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Potapova's vastly superior recent form (9-6 vs 1-14) and strong return game give her a decisive edge on hard court.
- Potapova last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Williams 1-14 (6.7%)
- Potapova last15 hard-court record 5-7 in 2026, but overall hard-court career win% 58.6% vs Williams 0-6 hard-court in 2026
- Williams last15 return points won 38.6%, break point conversion 41.7%
- Potapova last15 break point conversion 46.8%, return points won 47.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnastasia PotapovaEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Williams' poor form and Potapova's ability to win efficiently suggest a straight-set match with fewer than 20.5 games.
- Potapova last15 average games per match 21.9, but Williams last15 average only 22.1
- Williams last15 record 1-14, with 10 of 15 matches ending in straight sets
- Potapova last15 hard-court matches: 5 of 7 losses in straight sets, wins often in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Potapova consistently wins more games per match, and Williams' low game count suggests a comfortable cover of -3.5.
- Potapova last15 average games won per match 11.6, Williams last15 average games won 8.7
- Williams last15 hard-court games won average 8.5
- Potapova last15 hard-court games won average 10.8
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAnastasia Potapova -3.5Estimated chance62%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Potapova's high first-set conversion rate and strong return should allow her to break early and take the opener.
- Potapova first-set win conversion career 84%
- Williams last15 first serve points won 64.7% but second serve points won only 33.8%
- Potapova last15 return points won 47.5%, break points converted 46.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnastasia PotapovaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Williams' weak second serve and Potapova's straight-set win trend make a 2-0 victory likely.
- Williams last15: 10 of 15 matches ended in straight sets (all losses)
- Potapova last15: 7 of 9 wins in straight sets
- Williams last15 second serve points won 33.8%, double faults per match 5.7
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAnastasia Potapova 2-0Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches often end in straight sets, and Williams' lack of wins reduces the chance of a third set.
- Williams last15: 10 of 15 matches ended in straight sets
- Potapova last15: 7 of 9 wins in straight sets
- Potapova last15 deciding set win% 59%, but Williams last15 only 1 win total
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are infrequent in both players' recent matches, and Potapova's straight-set dominance reduces the need for them.
- Potapova career tiebreak win% 51%, Williams career 58%
- Potapova last15: only 2 of 15 matches featured a tiebreak
- Williams last15: 2 of 15 matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are just below 5.5, and Potapova's low ace count drags the total down.
- Potapova last15 aces per match 1.4, Williams last15 aces per match 3.9
- Combined average aces per match 5.3
- Potapova last15 hard-court aces per match 1.5, Williams hard-court 4.0
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, pushing the combined total above 9.5 on average.
- Potapova last15 double faults per match 4.4, Williams last15 5.7
- Combined average double faults per match 10.1
- Williams last15 hard-court double faults per match 5.5
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Anastasia Potapova

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#59Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-1 ret.#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 2-0 ret.#48Zeynep Sonmez

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#145Suzan Lamens

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#20Anna Kalinskaya

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-2#67Katie Boulter

6-1 6-2#77Maya Joint

7-6(6) 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 6-2#69Liudmila Samsonova

6-3 6-2#6Karolina Muchova

5-7 6-2 6-4#152Dalma Galfi

4-6 6-4 6-2#44Nikola Bartunkova

6-1 7-5#458Irina-Camelia Begu

6-2 1-6 6-1#11Marta Kostyuk

Venus Williams

1W 14L

6-2 4-6 7-6(6)#458Irina-Camelia Begu

6-2 6-4#101Kaitlin Quevedo

7-5 7-5#113Francesca Jones

6-3 6-7(4) 6-1#60Diane Parry

6-4 6-1#94Ajla Tomljanovic

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#263Olga Danilovic

6-4 6-3#76Tatjana Maria

6-4 4-6 6-2#51Magda Linette

6-3 2-6 6-1#6Karolina Muchova

6-4 6-4#59Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-2 6-2#43Magdalena Frech

6-3 6-4#57Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-3#18Diana Shnaider

2-6 6-3 6-0#225Nao Hibino

6-1 6-1#176Greetje Minnen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAnastasia PotapovaPotapova

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Venus WilliamsWilliamsVW

Anastasia Potapova carries the stronger recent form — Venus Williams's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In53.5%+5.9pp59.4%

1st Serve Won64.6%—64.7%

2nd Serve Won42.5%+8.7pp33.8%

Aces / Match1.4+2.53.9

Double Faults / Match4.41.3 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.5%+8.9pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.8%+5.1pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved53.0%+3.0pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.9%+5.3pp45.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

53.5%1st Serve In+5.9pp59.4%

64.6%1st Serve Won—64.7%

42.5%2nd Serve Won+8.7pp33.8%

1.4Aces / Match+2.53.9

4.4Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer5.7

Return · 1–0

47.5%Return Pts Won+8.9pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

46.8%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp41.7%

53.0%Break Pts Saved+3.0pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

50.9%Total Pts Won+5.3pp45.6%

Anastasia Potapova #28Austria2Venus Williams #469United States0

Player Profiles

Anastasia Potapova

Venus Williams

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 18.5

Anastasia Potapova -5.5

Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Venus Williams @ 5.75

Anastasia Potapova 2-0 @ 1.38

Anastasia Potapova

Venus Williams

Stat Battle