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Predictions graded

Yuliia Starodubtseva #62Ukraine1Sloane Stephens #320United States2

Sets 4-6 · 7-5 · 2-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 22:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYuliia Starodubtseva · 258 places

Yuliia Starodubtseva

Ukraine

Her career-high ranking is No. 53, and she was the 2026 Charleston runner-up. The WTA says she favors hard courts and is coached by Pearse Dolan.

Current ranking: #62
Peak ranking: #53
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Sloane Stephens

United States

Stephens reached No. 3 on July 16, 2018 and won the 2017 US Open. The WTA lists clay as her favorite surface and Chris Tontz and Kamau Murray as her current coaches.

Current ranking: #320
Peak ranking: #3 · 2018
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 17:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Starodubtseva's superior recent form and Stephens' hard-court struggles, particularly on second serve, give the No. 8 seed a clear edge.

The match is likely to be competitive but should end in a straight-sets win for Starodubtseva, with the total games exceeding 20.5.

Context

Stephens' last15 hard-court second-serve points won: 32.9% (25/76) across 3 matches.
- Starodubtseva's last15 overall return points won: 46%, indicating she can pressure weak second serves.
- Stephens' hard-court break-point save rate in last15 is just 46.2%, compounding the second-serve issue.
Starodubtseva's last15 wins include victories over No. 2 Rybakina, No. 93 Volynets, and No. 57 Zhang.
- Stephens' last15 wins include only one top-100 opponent: No. 60 Parry.
- Starodubtseva's last15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%), while Stephens' is 6-9 (40%).
Both players are in the same doubles first round on July 27: Starodubtseva/Zarazua vs. Frey/Stephens.
- The singles match is scheduled for July 28, leaving less than 24 hours between matches.
- No fitness concerns are reported for either player, suggesting the doubles workload is manageable.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Yuliia Starodubtseva

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Starodubtseva's superior recent form and Stephens' poor hard-court stats (1-2 last15, 32.9% second-serve points won) give her a clear edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Yuliia Starodubtseva

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Starodubtseva's strong career first-set conversion and Stephens' weak second serve on hard courts give her a slight edge, but the odds overestimate her chances.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Yuliia Starodubtseva 2-0

1.95fair 1.82

BetBugs 40% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Starodubtseva's superior hard-court form and Stephens' weak second serve make a straight-sets win more likely than the odds imply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Starodubtseva's superior recent form, higher ranking, and Stephens' struggles on hard courts (1-2 last15, 32.9% second-serve points won) give her a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Starodubtseva's last15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%), but 6-5 on clay (54.5%) with stronger return points won (47.5% clay vs 46% overall).
- Stephens' last15 overall record: 6-9 (40%), with only 1-2 on hard courts (33.3%) and a weak second-serve points won (32.9% on hard).
- Starodubtseva's recent form includes wins over top-100 opponents (Rybakina, Volynets) and competitive losses to top-30 players (Navarro, Keys), while Stephens' best recent win is over #60 Parry.
- Stephens entered via wildcard with only 2 tour-level wins in 2026; Starodubtseva is the #8 seed with direct entry.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYuliia StarodubtsevaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Given the competitive nature of both players' recent matches and Starodubtseva's tendency for longer matches, the total games are likely to exceed 20.5.
- Starodubtseva's last15 matches average 25.3 games per match (380 games / 15 matches).
- Stephens' last15 matches average 20.2 games per match (303 games / 15 matches), but her hard-court matches average 20 games (60 games / 3 matches).
- Both players have competitive recent matches: Starodubtseva's last 5 matches all went over 20.5 games, and Stephens' last hard-court match had 25 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
With both players showing competitive first sets recently and similar serve stats, the first set is likely to be close, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Starodubtseva's last15 first-set average games: 9.9 (calculated from parsed sets).
- Stephens' last15 first-set average games: 9.3, with 4 of her last 5 first sets going over 9.5 games.
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages (Starodubtseva 58%, Stephens 59% overall), suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Starodubtseva's high career first-set win rate and Stephens' weak second serve on hard courts make it likely Starodubtseva takes the opening set.
- Starodubtseva's first-set win conversion career: 87%, indicating strong starts.
- Stephens' last15 first-serve points won on hard: 60.7%, but second-serve points won only 32.9%, making her vulnerable early.
- Starodubtseva's last15 return points won overall: 46%, suggesting she can pressure Stephens' serve from the start.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYuliia StarodubtsevaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server; their combined ace averages suggest a low total ace count, making under 5.5 likely.
- Starodubtseva averages 1.2 aces per match in last15, with only 0.7 on clay (no hard-court data in last15).
- Stephens averages 1.4 aces per match in last15, with 1.7 on hard courts.
- Combined, their average aces per match is 2.6, well under 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stephens' elevated double-fault rate on hard courts and both players' moderate double-fault averages make over 4.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Starodubtseva averages 2.6 double faults per match in last15.
- Stephens averages 2.3 double faults per match in last15, but 3.7 on hard courts.
- Combined average is 4.9, slightly above 4.5, with Stephens' hard-court rate pushing it higher.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Yuliia Starodubtseva

7W 8L

6-7(3) 6-4 6-1#104Anna Blinkova

6-4 3-6 6-3#101Anastasia Zakharova

6-4 6-7(3) 6-4#26Emma Navarro

6-7(8) 7-5 6-4#76Maya Joint

6-3 7-5#94Xiyu Wang

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#2Elena Rybakina

6-3 6-1#104Anna Blinkova

6-3 7-6(3)#54Anhelina Kalinina

6-4 6-2#207Angela Fita Boluda

1-6 6-2 6-3#22Madison Keys

7-5 2-6 6-2#93Katie Volynets

6-2 6-1#57Shuai Zhang

6-4 6-4#119Taylah Preston

7-5 4-6 6-1#90Simona Waltert

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#39Jaqueline Cristian

Sloane Stephens

6W 9L

2-6 6-3 6-2#83Renata Zarazua

6-4 6-2#397Boyoung Jeong

6-3 6-2#38Sara Bejlek

3-6 6-2 6-1#147Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-4 6-1#129Lisa Pigato

6-3 6-2#162Carol Young Suh Lee

4-6 6-3 6-2#134Veronika Podrez

6-4 6-1#64Tereza Valentova

2-6 7-6(5) 6-2#54Anhelina Kalinina

6-2 6-4#60Diane Parry

6-2 6-1#134Veronika Podrez

6-4 6-2#5Mirra Andreeva

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#79Tatjana Maria

6-2 6-0#83Renata Zarazua

6-3 6-2#123Qinwen Zheng

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YSYuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Sloane StephensStephensSS

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.8%+2.8pp64.6%

1st Serve Won58.0%+1.0pp59.0%

2nd Serve Won48.8%+2.0pp46.8%

Aces / Match1.2—1.4

Double Faults / Match2.60.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.0%+4.8pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.1%+6.2pp41.9%

Break Pts Saved50.0%+4.1pp54.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.2%+2.2pp48.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.8%1st Serve In+2.8pp64.6%

58.0%1st Serve Won+1.0pp59.0%

48.8%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp46.8%

1.2Aces / Match—1.4

2.6Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

46.0%Return Pts Won+4.8pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

48.1%Break Pts Converted+6.2pp41.9%

50.0%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp54.1%

Points · 1–0

50.2%Total Pts Won+2.2pp48.0%