CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Pablo Martinez Gomez #559Spain0Gonzalo Bueno #160Peru2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGonzalo Bueno · 399 places

Pablo Martinez Gomez

Spain

A 20-year-old right-hander from Murcia, Spain, listed at 193 cm. Sofascore records a career-high ranking of No. 538; the supplied tennis-API reference lists his current ranking as No. 559.

Current ranking: #559
Peak ranking: #538
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

A 22-year-old right-hander from Trujillo, Peru, listed at 173 cm, whose recorded career is predominantly on clay. He won his first ATP Challenger title in January 2024 and the Liberec title in 2025.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 22:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Pablo Martinez Gomez's hot form (11-4 last 15) and clay efficiency (71.4% win rate) give him a clear edge over defending champion Gonzalo Bueno, who has lost 9 of his last 15 and struggles on break points.

Back Martinez Gomez to win at 4.00 odds and to take the first set at 3.20, while avoiding Bueno's short 1.20 line.

Context

Overall last-15 record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate), with 56.7% of games won.
- On clay in last 15: 5-2 record, 58.5% games won, and 43% return points won.
- Won both qualifying matches here in straight sets, losing only 11 games total.
Overall last-15 record: 6-9 (40% win rate), with only 46.1% of games won.
- On clay in last 14: 6-8 record, 46.5% games won, and 35.8% break points converted.
- Lost in straight sets to Jaime Faria (ranked 79) in his most recent match.
Played and won 7-6, 6-1 on July 26 and 6-1, 6-3 on July 27.
- Bueno has not played since July 23, giving him four full days of rest.
- Martinez Gomez's average match duration in the last 15 is 111.8 minutes, indicating moderate physical demand.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.00
The read
Martinez Gomez's superior recent form and clay-court efficiency, combined with Bueno's struggles to convert break points, give the home player a clear edge.
- Martinez Gomez has won 11 of his last 15 matches (73.3% win rate) vs Bueno's 6 of 15 (40%).
- On clay in the last 15, Martinez Gomez holds a 71.4% win rate (5-2) with 58.5% games won; Bueno is 42.9% (6-8) with 46.5% games won.
- Martinez Gomez has won his last two matches in straight sets at this venue, showing strong current form and surface adaptation.
- Bueno's break point conversion rate in the last 15 is only 35.7%, while Martinez Gomez converts at 54.9%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPablo Martinez GomezEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and Bueno's tendency to play longer contests support a total games over 21.5.
- In Martinez Gomez's last 15 matches, average total games per match is 21.5 (323 games / 15 matches).
- Bueno's last 15 matches average 22.9 total games (343 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have been involved in tight matches recently: Martinez Gomez's last three clay matches averaged 22.3 games; Bueno's last three clay matches averaged 23.3 games.
- Bueno's matches often go deep: 8 of his last 15 have exceeded 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets frequently exceed 9.5 games, suggesting a competitive opening set.
- Martinez Gomez's last 15 first sets average 9.7 games; Bueno's average 9.9 games.
- In their last 5 matches each, first sets have gone over 9.5 games in 4 of Martinez Gomez's and 3 of Bueno's.
- Bueno's first-set tiebreak rate is 20% (3 of 15), indicating potential for extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not as strong as set 1, the second set often remains competitive, especially given Bueno's fighting qualities.
- Martinez Gomez's last 15 second sets average 9.3 games; Bueno's average 9.7 games.
- In their last 5 matches, second sets have gone over 9.5 games in 3 of Martinez Gomez's and 4 of Bueno's.
- Bueno has played 3 tiebreaks in second sets in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martinez Gomez's comfortable wins and Bueno's heavy defeats suggest the home player can cover a small game handicap.
- Martinez Gomez has covered a -1.5 game handicap in 9 of his last 15 wins (60%).
- Bueno has failed to cover +1.5 in 7 of his last 9 losses.
- Martinez Gomez's average games won margin in wins is +5.3; Bueno's average margin in losses is -5.1.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPablo Martinez Gomez -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Martinez Gomez's consistent fast starts and Bueno's tendency to drop the opening set make the home player the likely set 1 winner.
- Martinez Gomez has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%), including both qualifying matches here.
- Bueno has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches, including his most recent loss to Faria.
- Martinez Gomez's first-set win conversion rate over his career is 82%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPablo Martinez GomezEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bueno's high double fault rate (3.0 per match) combined with Martinez Gomez's moderate rate makes over 4.5 double faults likely.
- Martinez Gomez averages 1.9 double faults per match in last 15; Bueno averages 3.0.
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.9, above the line.
- On clay, Martinez Gomez averages 1.4 double faults; Bueno 2.9, still totaling 4.3, close to the line.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is close to 5.5, and a three-set match would likely push it over, but Bueno's low ace rate makes this a marginal call.
- Martinez Gomez averages 3.9 aces per match in last 15; Bueno averages 1.4.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.3, just below the line.
- On clay, Martinez Gomez averages 4.4 aces; Bueno 1.1, but Bueno's low ace count may be offset by longer match duration.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Pablo Martinez Gomez

11W 4L

6-1 6-3—Jakub Vrba

7-6(3) 6-1#653Peter Fajta

3-6 6-4 6-3—Mario Arce Fernandez

6-4 6-2#415Eric Vanshelboim

6-2 6-4#461Sergi Perez Contri

6-4 6-1#758Ignacio Parisca

6-1 3-6 6-3—Kevin Edengren

7-5 1-6 6-3#332Tiago Torres

6-3 6-2#332Tiago Torres

6-3 7-6(4)—Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas

3-6 6-3 6-4#401Ilya Ivashka

6-2 6-4—Kevin Edengren

7-6(5) 6-4#594Joao Domingues

6-3 4-6 6-1—Pablo Perez Ramos

6-3 6-4#576John Echeverria

Gonzalo Bueno

6W 9L

6-2 6-4#79Jaime Faria

6-3 1-6 7-6(5)#367Tiago Pereira

6-3 5-7 6-4#137Andrea Pellegrino

6-4 6-4#814Francisco Rocha

6-4 7-6(5)#296Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-1 6-2#210Laslo Djere

4-6 7-5 6-1#194Jerome Kym

6-2 6-3#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 6-3#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

7-6(4) 6-3#570Tomasz Berkieta

7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#371Francesco Forti

6-4 6-1#152Dusan Lajovic

7-6(2) 6-3#358Tommaso Compagnucci

5-7 6-1 6-3#112Toby Samuel

6-2 6-4#192Vitaliy Sachko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PGPablo Martinez GomezGomez

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Gonzalo BuenoBuenoGB

Pablo Martinez Gomez carries the stronger recent form — Gonzalo Bueno's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.6%+2.5pp63.1%

1st Serve Won71.2%+9.4pp61.8%

2nd Serve Won57.1%+5.6pp51.5%

Aces / Match3.9+2.51.4

Double Faults / Match1.91.1 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.0%—39.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted54.9%+19.2pp35.7%

Break Pts Saved60.3%+6.9pp53.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+4.3pp48.5%

Serve · 4–1

60.6%1st Serve In+2.5pp63.1%

71.2%1st Serve Won+9.4pp61.8%

57.1%2nd Serve Won+5.6pp51.5%

3.9Aces / Match+2.51.4

1.9Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.0%Return Pts Won—39.3%

Pressure · 2–0

54.9%Break Pts Converted+19.2pp35.7%

60.3%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp53.4%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+4.3pp48.5%

Pablo Martinez Gomez #559Spain0Gonzalo Bueno #160Peru2

Player Profiles

Pablo Martinez Gomez

Gonzalo Bueno

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pablo Martinez Gomez

Pablo Martinez Gomez

Pablo Martinez Gomez 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Gonzalo Bueno @ 1.20

Gonzalo Bueno 2-0 @ 1.50

Pablo Martinez Gomez

Gonzalo Bueno

Stat Battle