San MarinoSan Marino - San MarinoFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Vrbensky #744Czechia1Nikoloz Basilashvili #133Georgia2

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 2-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 09:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–433%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNikoloz Basilashvili · 611 places

Michael Vrbensky

Czechia

Reached a career-high No. 277 on 15 July 2024. His match record and lower-level title distribution are strongly clay-weighted, with 10 of his 11 singles titles coming on clay.

Current ranking: #744
Peak ranking: #277 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Reached a career-high No. 16 on 27 May 2019 and has won five ATP Tour singles titles. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #133
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 06:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili's superior serve and fresher legs give him a clear edge over a fatigued Vrbensky, who is playing his sixth match in nine days.

While Basilashvili's recent clay form is inconsistent, his power and higher-quality opposition experience should secure a straight-set win, though the odds offer no value. Avoid backing Vrbensky at long odds, and consider low-confidence overs on aces and double faults.

Context

Vrbensky played Tampere singles on July 20 and doubles on July 22-24 before winning a 2h24m San Marino qualifying match on July 27.
- This is his sixth match in nine calendar days, with the last three going to three sets or tiebreaks.
- His last-15 clay matches average 120.7 minutes, and he has a 28.6% win rate on the surface.
Djere withdrew with a right-wrist injury, and Vrbensky entered as a qualifier.
- Basilashvili's last-15 clay record is 40% against opponents averaging rank ~120, while Vrbensky's opponents average ~450.
- Basilashvili's first-serve points won on clay is 75.7%, far above Vrbensky's 61.7%.
He retired trailing 6-1, 2-1 at the Milan Challenger on June 30.
- He then played seven matches between July 5 and July 20, including a win over Ben Shelton.
- No further retirements or withdrawals are reported in the last 30 days.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Nikoloz Basilashvili

1.12fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Basilashvili's superior recent clay stats and higher-quality opposition, combined with Vrbensky's heavy recent workload, give him a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nikoloz Basilashvili

1.22fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Basilashvili's stronger serve and Vrbensky's slow starts on clay make Basilashvili the favorite to take the opening set.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Nikoloz Basilashvili 2-0

1.40fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily overrates a straight-set win for Basilashvili given his recent clay form and Vrbensky's fatigue, but the predictor's 45% estimate suggests no value at 1.40.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Basilashvili's superior recent clay stats and higher-quality opposition, combined with Vrbensky's heavy recent workload, give him a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.
- Basilashvili last15 overall record 40% (6-9) vs Vrbensky 26.7% (4-11), with Basilashvili facing stronger opponents (avg rank ~120 vs ~450).
- Basilashvili clay last15: 40% win rate, 49% total points won, 75.7% first-serve points won; Vrbensky clay last15: 28.6% win rate, 46.7% total points won, 61.7% first-serve points won.
- Vrbensky playing 6th match in 9 days after 2h24m qualifying win yesterday; Basilashvili fresh since July 20.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent patterns show both players frequently engage in extended first sets, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.
- Basilashvili last15 clay: average 9.8 games in first set; Vrbensky last15 clay: average 10.1 games in first set.
- Both players have a high rate of tight first sets: Basilashvili 4 of 10 went to 10+ games, Vrbensky 7 of 14.
- Vrbensky's last 5 first sets: 10, 12, 13, 13, 13 games; Basilashvili's last 5: 10, 12, 10, 9, 13.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Basilashvili's stronger serve and Vrbensky's slow starts on clay make Basilashvili the favorite to take the opening set.
- Basilashvili last15 clay: won first set in 5 of 10 matches; Vrbensky last15 clay: won first set in 3 of 14 matches.
- Vrbensky's first-set win conversion career is 86%, but recent form shows only 21% first-set wins on clay.
- Basilashvili's first-serve points won (75.7%) gives him an edge in holding early, while Vrbensky's return points won is only 37.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's strong serving on clay, averaging over 6 aces per match, makes it likely the combined total exceeds 8.5, even with Vrbensky's modest contribution.
- Basilashvili last15 clay: 6.3 aces per match; Vrbensky last15 clay: 3.3 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match: 9.6, with Basilashvili exceeding 8 aces in 4 of last 10 clay matches.
- Vrbensky's ace count is low, but Basilashvili's high ace rate alone can push the total over 8.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates on clay, and the combined average exceeds 9.5, making the over a reasonable pick.
- Basilashvili last15 clay: 5.7 double faults per match; Vrbensky last15 clay: 4.8 double faults per match.
- Combined average double faults: 10.5, with both players consistently above 4 per match.
- Vrbensky's fatigue may increase double fault rate; Basilashvili's aggressive second serve leads to high double fault counts.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Michael Vrbensky

4W 11L

6-3 5-7 6-3#565Maxime Janvier

n/p#291Federico Bondioli

7-6(2) 6-7(2) 6-4#881Patrik Niklas-Salminen

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#565Maxime Janvier

7-6(4) 6-1#463Milos Karol

6-0 6-1#319Marvin Moeller

7-6(4) 6-3#306Dali Blanch

6-3 4-6 7-6(5)#363Robin Bertrand

7-5 7-6(2)#841Daniel Cukierman

6-3 6-4#265Franco Agamenone

5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#670Yaroslav Demin

6-1 6-2#441Denis Yevseyev

6-3 6-1#521Christoph Negritu

6-4 5-7 7-6(2)#608Andrew Paulson

6-7(2) 6-3 6-0#384Laurent Lokoli

Nikoloz Basilashvili

6W 9L

6-4 6-2#332Tiago Torres

7-5 3-6 6-4#64Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 7-6(4)#88Jan Choinski

6-3 6-7(5) 6-2#128Vilius Gaubas

6-1 2-1 ret.#236Raul Brancaccio

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#203Elias Ymer

7-5 6-4#62Daniel Altmaier

6-4 6-4#80Lorenzo Sonego

7-6(6) 6-3#197Diego Dedura

6-1 7-5#240Marc-Andrea Huesler

7-6(4) 6-4#256Pedro Boscardin Dias

3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#14Andrey Rublev

7-6(5) 6-4#33Brandon Nakashima

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#8Ben Shelton

6-4 2-6 6-3#61Daniel Merida Aguilar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MVMichael VrbenskyVrbensky

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashviliNB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.6%+5.0pp53.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1562.0%+13.6pp75.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1546.2%—45.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.3+2.96.2

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.70.6 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1537.4%+1.1pp36.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1540.6%+5.9pp34.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1552.4%+1.9pp54.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1546.5%+2.6pp49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+5.0pp53.6%

62.0%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+13.6pp75.6%

46.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—45.7%

3.3Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.96.2

4.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.6 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

37.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.1pp36.3%

Pressure · 1–1

40.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+5.9pp34.7%

52.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+1.9pp54.3%

Points · 0–1

46.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.6pp49.1%