RomaniaWTA Targu MuresFinished

Predictions graded

Mia Ristic #224Serbia2Darja Semenistaja #1060

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Tue 28 Jul 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–0100%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDarja Semenistaja · 118 places

Mia Ristic

Serbia

Reached a career-high No. 224 on 27 July 2026. The right-hander is clay-oriented and won the W75 Cordenons title on 25 July without dropping a set.

Current ranking: #224
Peak ranking: #224 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Darja Semenistaja

Reached a career-high No. 87 on 27 October 2025. The 1.69m left-hander has extensive clay experience and owns two WTA 125 singles titles.

Current ranking: #106
Peak ranking: #87 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 169 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 16:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Mia Ristic’s dominant clay form (5 straight-set wins, 73% recent win rate) clashes with Darja Semenistaja’s clay struggles (4 losses in last 5).

Ristic’s strong starts and straight-set trend make her a clear favorite, with value on the moneyline (1.80) and 2-0 correct score (2.50). Fatigue is a minor risk, but surface edge and serve dynamics heavily favor Ristic.

Context

Ristic's last 5 matches: all straight-set wins, average 17.6 games per match, +7.2 game differential.
- Last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 59% games won, 54.1% total points won.
- First-serve points won last 15: 65.5%, return points won: 48.2%.
Last 5 clay matches: 1 win, 4 losses, with 3 three-set defeats.
- Last 11 clay matches: 5-6 record, 46.7% games won, 49% total points won.
- First-serve points won on clay last 11: 53.1%, break points saved: 52.6%.
Ristic's last match was a 6-3 6-3 win on 25 July in Cordenons, Italy.
- The Targu Mures match is scheduled for 28 July, a three-day gap including travel.
- No injury or retirement concerns reported, but the workload and short rest could affect energy levels.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ristic's dominant recent clay form (5 straight-set wins, 73.3% last15 win rate) contrasts sharply with Semenistaja's struggles (45.5% clay win rate, 4 losses in last 5 clay matches). Surface-fit edge strongly favors Ristic.
- Ristic's last15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate) on clay, with 59% games won.
- Semenistaja's last15 clay record: 5-6 (45.5% win rate), 46.7% games won.
- Ristic's recent form: 5 straight-set wins in last 5 matches, all on clay, dropping only 24 games total.
- Semenistaja lost 4 of last 5 clay matches, with 3 three-set losses and one straight-set loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMia RisticEstimated chance65%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's efficiency in straight-set wins (avg 17.6 games last 5) suggests a potential under if she maintains form, though Semenistaja's three-set tendency adds risk.
- Ristic's last 5 matches averaged 17.6 total games, all straight-set wins.
- Semenistaja's last 5 clay matches averaged 24.2 total games, but 4 were three-setters.
- Ristic's last15 average games per match: 19.5 (293 games/15 matches).
- Semenistaja's last15 clay average: 25.1 games per match (276 games/11 matches).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's quick starts and Semenistaja's low first-serve win rate on clay (53.1%) point to a potentially one-sided first set under 9.5 games.
- Ristic's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0, 6-3 (avg 7.6 games).
- Semenistaja's last 5 clay first sets: 3-6, 1-6, 2-6, 2-6, 6-3 (avg 8.2 games).
- Ristic's first serve points won last15: 65.5%.
- Semenistaja's first serve points won last15 clay: 53.1%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ristic's consistent +6 to +8 game margins in wins and Semenistaja's negative differentials in losses suggest a -3.5 handicap is plausible, though Semenistaja's three-set matches add variance.
- Ristic's last 5 wins: game differentials of +6, +8, +7, +8, +7.
- Semenistaja's last 5 clay losses: game differentials of -4, -8, -4, -7, -4.
- Ristic's last15 games won: 59%.
- Semenistaja's last15 clay games won: 46.7%.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMia Ristic -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ristic's strong start trend (13/15 first sets won) and Semenistaja's recent first-set struggles on clay give Ristic a clear edge in set 1.
- Ristic won first set in 13 of last 15 matches (87%), including all last 5.
- Semenistaja lost first set in 3 of last 4 clay matches.
- Ristic's first-set win conversion career: 84%.
- Semenistaja's first-set win conversion career: 89%, but recent clay form shows early deficits.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMia RisticEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Ristic's straight-set dominance (10/11 wins) and Semenistaja's inability to force deciders consistently on clay support a 2-0 outcome.
- Ristic won 10 of last 11 matches in straight sets.
- Semenistaja lost 4 of last 5 clay matches, 3 in three sets, 1 in straight sets.
- Ristic's last15 sets won: 72.7% (24/33).
- Semenistaja's last15 clay sets won: 48.3% (14/29).
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMia Ristic 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ristic's recent matches have no tiebreaks, and Semenistaja's tiebreak frequency is low (20%). Combined with Ristic's straight-set trend, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Ristic's last15 matches: 0 tiebreaks played.
- Semenistaja's last15 matches: 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches (20% of matches).
- Ristic's career tiebreak win rate: 59%, but recent matches avoid tiebreaks.
- Semenistaja's career tiebreak win rate: 63%, but only 3 in last 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player relies on aces; combined average of 2.7 per match strongly supports under 3.5 total aces.
- Ristic's last15 aces per match: 1.2 (18 total in 15 matches).
- Semenistaja's last15 aces per match: 1.5 (23 total in 15 matches).
- Combined average aces per match: 2.7.
- Both players have low ace counts on clay: Ristic 1.2, Semenistaja 1.3 in last15 clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double fault rates, with a combined average of 2.4 per match, making under 3.5 likely.
- Ristic's last15 double faults per match: 1.3 (20 total).
- Semenistaja's last15 double faults per match: 1.1 (16 total).
- Combined average double faults per match: 2.4.
- On clay, Ristic averages 1.3, Semenistaja 1.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

Mia Ristic

11W 4L

6-3 6-3#167Nuria Brancaccio

6-1 6-3#504Viola Turini

6-2 6-3#304Gabriela Ce

6-0 6-4#414Tatiana Pieri

6-3 6-2#594Gaia Maduzzi

6-4 2-6 6-2#209Erika Andreeva

6-3 7-5#244Mia Pohankova

6-2 6-3#430Alena Kovackova

6-1 6-1#325Jessica Pieri

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#170Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah

7-5 3-6 6-4#326Deborah Chiesa

6-2 6-3#309Noemi Basiletti

6-0 6-2#520Verena Meliss

6-4 6-4#161Elina Avanesyan

6-4 6-4#442Ekaterina Kazionova

Darja Semenistaja

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-2#80Sinja Kraus

6-1 4-6 6-1#148Julia Riera

6-2 2-6 6-2#147Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-3 3-6 6-3#55Antonia Ruzic

6-4 6-2#190Anastasia Gasanova

6-4 1-6 6-2#226Nao Hibino

7-6(2) 1-6 7-5#238Anna Siskova

6-2 7-5#153Laura Samson

6-3 2-6 7-5#130Marina Bassols Ribera

6-2 6-3#96Maria Timofeeva

6-1 6-2#161Elina Avanesyan

7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(5)#155Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-3 5-7 7-6(5)#454Tena Lukas

6-4 6-4#179Akasha Urhobo

7-5 5-7 6-2#256Katarina Zavatska

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMia RisticRistic

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Darja SemenistajaSemenistajaDS

Mia Ristic carries the stronger recent form — Darja Semenistaja's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.4%+0.9pp66.3%

1st Serve Won65.5%+10.6pp54.9%

2nd Serve Won49.7%+4.9pp44.8%

Aces / Match1.2+0.31.5

Double Faults / Match1.3—1.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.2%+2.0pp46.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.7%+11.5pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved57.5%+6.4pp51.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.1%+5.5pp48.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.4%1st Serve In+0.9pp66.3%

65.5%1st Serve Won+10.6pp54.9%

49.7%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp44.8%

1.2Aces / Match+0.31.5

1.3Double Faults / Match—1.1

Return · 1–0

48.2%Return Pts Won+2.0pp46.2%

Pressure · 2–0

51.7%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp40.2%

57.5%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp51.1%

Points · 1–0

54.1%Total Pts Won+5.5pp48.6%

Mia Ristic

Darja Semenistaja

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic

Mia Ristic 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mia Ristic

Darja Semenistaja

Stat Battle