GermanyBonn - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Max Schoenhaus #310Germany0Federico Agustin Gomez #191Argentina2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederico Agustin Gomez · 119 places

Max Schoenhaus

Germany

Eighteen-year-old German right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His supplied No. 310 ranking improves on the public No. 311 career high recorded on 20 July 2026.

Current ranking: #310
Peak ranking: #310
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Federico Agustin Gomez

Argentina

Argentine right-hander whose ITF profile lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 133 on 3 February 2025.

Current ranking: #191
Peak ranking: #133 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 16:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Max Schoenhaus’s rapid ranking rise and superior recent clay stats (64.3% win rate, 51.5% total points won) give him a clear edge over Federico Agustin Gomez, who has lost 8 of his last 14 clay matches with frequent straight-set defeats.

Back Schoenhaus to win, with value on the 2-0 set betting line at 2.40, while avoiding Gomez in any capacity due to his poor form and vulnerable serve.

Context

Schoenhaus last 14 clay matches: 9-5 record (64.3%), Gomez 6-8 (42.9%).
- Schoenhaus wins 51.5% of total points on clay in that span, Gomez only 47.7%.
- Schoenhaus wins 40.0% of return points on clay, Gomez 36.7%.
- Schoenhaus has beaten top-100 players Burruchaga (58) and Giron (85) on clay recently.
Gomez lost 6 of his last 8 clay matches in straight sets, including heavy defeats to Lokoli (6-2 6-2) and Mmoh (6-2 6-1).
- He wins only 63.5% of first-serve points on clay recently, well below Schoenhaus's 70.9%.
- Gomez averages 3.8 double faults per match on clay in his last 14, adding pressure to his service games.
Schoenhaus was ranked No. 459 in mid-April and is now No. 310, a rise of 149 places.
- He reached an M25 clay final in Sardinia in April and has since won matches at higher-level Challenger events.
- Gomez, the No. 8 seed, has lost 8 of his last 14 clay matches and is ranked No. 191, down from a career-high No. 135 in 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Max Schoenhaus

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Schoenhaus has a clear recent clay edge in win rate, total points won, and return points won, but the model estimate is slightly below the implied probability.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Schoenhaus has a clear recent clay edge in win rate, total points won, and return points won, while Gomez's slightly higher break conversion is offset by worse overall form.
- Schoenhaus last15 clay record 9-5 (64.3%), Gomez 6-8 (42.9%)
- Schoenhaus last15 clay total points won 51.5% vs Gomez 47.7%
- Schoenhaus last15 clay return points won 40.0% vs Gomez 36.7%
- Schoenhaus last15 clay break points converted 38.1% vs Gomez 42.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMax SchoenhausEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play close matches on clay, with a high frequency of three-setters, making a total over 21.5 games likely.
- Schoenhaus last15 clay average games per match 22.7, Gomez 22.5
- Gomez last15 clay 7 of 14 matches had 3 sets, Schoenhaus 5 of 14
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 45-55% in recent clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these two on clay often extend beyond 9.5 games, with both players showing similar patterns in recent matches.
- Schoenhaus last15 clay first-set average games 9.6, Gomez 9.4
- Gomez last15 clay 8 of 14 first sets had 10+ games
- Schoenhaus last15 clay 7 of 14 first sets had 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are slightly less likely to go over 9.5 than first sets, but still hover around the line based on recent clay data.
- Schoenhaus last15 clay second-set average games 9.4, Gomez 9.1
- Gomez last15 clay 6 of 14 second sets had 10+ games
- Schoenhaus last15 clay 7 of 14 second sets had 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Schoenhaus's stronger serve performance on clay in the last 15 matches gives him a slight edge to start the match, despite Gomez's higher career first-set conversion.
- Schoenhaus career first-set win conversion 79%, Gomez 83%
- Schoenhaus last15 clay first-serve points won 70.9% vs Gomez 63.5%
- Schoenhaus last15 clay second-serve points won 54.1% vs Gomez 47.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMax SchoenhausEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a notable tendency to go to deciding sets on clay, with Gomez especially prone to three-setters, supporting over 2.5 total sets.
- Gomez last15 clay 7 of 14 matches went to 3 sets
- Schoenhaus last15 clay 5 of 14 matches went to 3 sets
- Combined three-set rate in recent clay matches is 43%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gomez's high double-fault rate pushes the combined average to the line, and with both players capable of more, over 6.5 is slightly favored.
- Schoenhaus last15 clay double faults per match 2.7, Gomez 3.8
- Combined average double faults per match 6.5 on clay
- Gomez last15 clay 8 of 14 matches had 4+ double faults
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is just below the line, but both players can exceed their averages, making over 7.5 a marginal lean.
- Schoenhaus last15 clay aces per match 4.1, Gomez 3.0
- Combined average aces per match 7.1 on clay
- Gomez last15 clay 5 of 14 matches had 4+ aces, Schoenhaus 7 of 14
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Max Schoenhaus

9W 6L

6-4 6-1#241Max Houkes

7-5 6-1#754Andres Santamarta Roig

7-5 6-4#210Laslo Djere

6-3 6-3#58Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 6-4#16Learner Tien

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#221Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 7-5#143Hugo Dellien

6-4 6-3#428Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-3#586Marcel Zielinski

6-1 6-4#618Kai Wehnelt

7-5 6-1—Mac Visser

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#45Yannick Hanfmann

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#85Marcos Giron

6-3 6-3#48Luca Van Assche

7-5 2-6 6-3#227August Holmgren

Federico Agustin Gomez

6W 9L

6-3 5-7 6-3#35Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-6(4)#509Niels Mcdonald

6-4 6-4#215Andrea Guerrieri

5-7 6-2 6-4#236Raul Brancaccio

6-3 6-7(10) 6-3#426Henry Bernet

6-4 4-6 6-4#323Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-1#134Gustavo Heide

6-3 6-4#159Clement Tabur

6-3 7-5#155Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(3) 6-2#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#235Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-2 6-2#384Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#839Skander Mansouri

6-0 2-0 ret.#271Stefan Dostanic

6-2 6-1#187Michael Mmoh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMax SchoenhausSchoenhaus

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Federico Agustin GomezGomezFG

Max Schoenhaus carries the stronger recent form — Federico Agustin Gomez's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In58.9%+5.2pp64.1%

1st Serve Won70.5%+6.6pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won53.3%+5.3pp48.0%

Aces / Match4.3+0.93.4

Double Faults / Match2.90.6 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.2%+3.2pp36.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.4%+3.3pp40.7%

Break Pts Saved57.1%+2.9pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+3.4pp47.6%

Serve · 4–1

58.9%1st Serve In+5.2pp64.1%

70.5%1st Serve Won+6.6pp63.9%

53.3%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp48.0%

4.3Aces / Match+0.93.4

2.9Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

39.2%Return Pts Won+3.2pp36.0%

Pressure · 0–2

37.4%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp40.7%

57.1%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+3.4pp47.6%