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Predictions graded

Max Basing #257United Kingdom2Sidharth Rawat #529India0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Tue 28 Jul 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Basing · 272 places

Max Basing

United Kingdom

Basing reached a new career-high No. 257 on 20 July 2026, matching the supplied current ranking. His available career record is strongest on hard courts.

Current ranking: #257
Peak ranking: #257 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Sidharth Rawat

India

Rawat reached a career-high No. 430 on 7 January 2019 and is No. 529 in the supplied current data. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #529
Peak ranking: #430 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 06:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Basing is the seeded favorite but his poor recent hard-court form (0-2) and Rawat’s comparable stats make the 1.15 match-winner price unappealing.

Value lies in Basing 2-1 at 4.00, over 21.5 total games, and over 9.5 first-set games, while fading the straight-sets win. Serve dynamics support under 5.5 aces and over 5.5 double faults.

Context

Last 15 on hard: 0-2 record, 20% sets won (1/5), 41.7% games won.
- Total points won on hard in that window is 47.6%, with only 33.6% return points won.
- Career hard-court win rate is 68.4% (83-38), showing a significant current dip.
Last 15 overall: 7-8 record, 49.3% total points won, 37.7% return points won.
- Lost last three matches in straight sets to opponents ranked 400, 791, and 339.
- Break-point conversion in last 15 is 46.2%, higher than Basing's 34.7%.
Last match on hard was a retirement loss on 2 April 2026.
- Grass-court record in last 15: 6-5, with 48.1% total points won.
- 17-day gap since last match provides recovery but no hard-court preparation.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Max Basing

1.15fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Basing's superior hard-court pedigree and H2H edge give him a moderate advantage, but the odds heavily overrate him relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Basing's superior hard-court pedigree and H2H edge, combined with facing tougher recent competition, give him a moderate advantage despite similar last-15 numbers.
- Basing career hard-court win rate 68.4% (83-38) vs Rawat 53.4% (313-273); Basing's surface record is stronger.
- Last 15 overall: Basing 48.4% total points won, Rawat 49.3% – nearly identical, but Basing faced higher-ranked opponents (avg rank ~250 vs ~500).
- H2H: Basing leads 2-1 on hard, winning most recent meeting in Aug 2025; Basing's break-point conversion in H2H is 73% vs Rawat's 56%.
- Basing's first-set win conversion is 91% career, indicating strong front-running; Rawat's is 87%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMax BasingEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Basing's matches average higher game counts, and H2H history shows close contests, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Last 15: Basing average 25.3 games per match (380 games/15 matches); Rawat average 19.6 games per match (294/15).
- H2H: two of three matches went over 21.5 games (22 and 23 games); one ended in retirement.
- Both players have similar total points won (48-49%), suggesting competitive rallies and potential for tight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.92
The read
Both players tend to produce first sets with 10+ games, and H2H supports a tight opening set.
- Basing last 15: first-set average 9.8 games (147 games/15 matches); Rawat last 15: first-set average 9.5 games (143/15).
- H2H: first-set games were 10, 8, and 5 (retirement) – two of three went over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 65-68%, indicating holds are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Basing's strong career first-set conversion and slight H2H edge in early sets support him taking the opener.
- Basing career first-set win conversion 91%; Rawat 87%.
- Basing's last 15 first-serve points won 65.3% vs Rawat 68.4%, but Basing's return points won 37.4% vs Rawat 37.7% – nearly equal.
- H2H: Basing won first set in 2 of 3 matches; Rawat's only win came after losing first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMax BasingEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Basing's extremely low ace rate (1.1 per match) makes it hard for combined aces to exceed 5.5, even with Rawat's moderate ace count.
- Basing last 15: 1.1 aces per match (17 aces/15 matches); Rawat last 15: 3.7 aces per match (56/15).
- Combined average: 4.8 aces per match, but Basing's low ace count drags total down.
- H2H: total aces in three matches were 5 (2+3), suggesting under 5.5 is plausible.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Basing's high double-fault rate (4.2 per match) alone nearly covers the over, and Rawat's occasional doubles add margin.
- Basing last 15: 4.2 double faults per match (63/15); Rawat last 15: 1.1 per match (17/15).
- Combined average: 5.3 double faults per match, but Basing's high rate (4.2) often pushes total over.
- H2H: Basing had 5 double faults in one match; Rawat had 1 in another.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

W4-6 6-2 6-3Max Basing#257vSidharth Rawat#529Aug 29, 2025

L2-6 6-1 6-1Max Basing#257vSidharth Rawat#529Aug 22, 2025

W5-0 ret.Max Basing#257vSidharth Rawat#529Sep 12, 2024

3 total meetings

Max Basing

7W 8L

3-6 6-3 6-4#465Dominik Palan

7-5 6-2#215Henry Searle

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)#219Felix Gill

6-4 6-7(2) 6-3#429Luca Castelnuovo

0-6 6-3 7-6(5)#300Filippo Romano

6-3 6-0 6-0#116Shintaro Mochizuki

2-6 6-4 3-6 7-5 6-2#182Remy Bertola

7-5 6-2#189Tom Gentzsch

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#149Francesco Maestrelli

6-3 6-2#227August Holmgren

6-7(4) 6-0 6-3#338Paul Jubb

6-1 7-5#105Martin Damm

6-4 2-2 ret.#589Kuan-Yi Lee

7-6(1) 6-4—Kuan-Shou Chen

7-5 6-2#178Gauthier Onclin

Sidharth Rawat

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#400Edward Winter

6-3 6-3#791Orel Kimhi

6-3 6-1#339Ognjen Milic

7-6(4) 6-2#496Omar Jasika

6-4 7-6(3)#419Maximus Jones

3-6 6-4 7-5#722Manish Sureshkumar

6-3 6-2#407Kasidit Samrej

6-2 6-3#706Shinji Hazawa

7-5 6-2#898Isaac Becroft

7-6(9) 6-1#533Leo Borg

7-6(1) 6-3#476Alexandr Binda

7-6(6) 6-3#561Digvijaypratap Singh

6-3 6-1—Rohan Mehra

6-0 7-6(2)—Cedric Stanke

6-1 6-2#301Philip Sekulic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMax BasingBasing

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Sidharth RawatRawatSR

Sidharth Rawat carries the stronger recent form — Max Basing's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In66.3%+7.9pp58.4%

1st Serve Won65.3%+3.1pp68.4%

2nd Serve Won47.1%+3.4pp50.5%

Aces / Match1.1+2.63.7

Double Faults / Match4.23.1 fewer1.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won37.4%—37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.7%+11.5pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved53.3%+3.2pp56.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.4%+0.9pp49.3%

Serve · 1–4

66.3%1st Serve In+7.9pp58.4%

65.3%1st Serve Won+3.1pp68.4%

47.1%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp50.5%

1.1Aces / Match+2.63.7

4.2Double Faults / Match3.1 fewer1.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.4%Return Pts Won—37.7%

Pressure · 0–2

34.7%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp46.2%

53.3%Break Pts Saved+3.2pp56.5%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won+0.9pp49.3%