Mary Stoiana #124United States11 – 2Peyton Stearns #58United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Stearns' ranking edge, H2H win, and slightly stronger serve numbers in a larger recent sample give her a moderate advantage, though Stoiana's recent hard-court form is limited.

• Stearns holds a 1-0 H2H edge, winning 2-6 6-1 6-4 on hard in 2022.
• Stearns' last15 overall return points won (42%) is slightly below Stoiana's (45.1%), but Stearns' first-serve points won (65.6%) edges Stoiana's (63.1%).
• Stoiana's last15 hard-court sample is only 3 matches (2-1 record), with a low break-point save rate of 47.1%.
• Stearns has a 58 ranking vs Stoiana's 124, indicating a higher level of competition.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing decent hold/break balance and Stoiana's recent matches often extending, a total over 20.5 games is likely in a competitive opener.

• Stoiana's last15 hard-court matches averaged 19.7 games, but her overall last15 average is 23.5 games per match.
• Stearns' last15 overall matches averaged 21.6 games, with 7 of 15 going over 20.5 games.
• Both players have similar break-point dynamics: Stoiana converts 52.7% overall, Stearns saves 59.1% overall, suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The serve-oriented stats and competitive first sets in recent matches suggest a tight opener, making over 9.5 games a solid play.

• Stoiana's last15 hard-court set1 average is 9.3 games, but her overall last15 set1 average is 10.1 games.
• Stearns' last15 overall set1 average is 9.7 games, with 8 of 15 sets going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve points won around 63-66%, indicating holds are common.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Stearns' higher level of competition and H2H edge suggest she could cover a small handicap, but Stoiana's strong hard-court numbers in a tiny sample add risk.

• Stearns' last15 overall games-won percentage is 50.6%, Stoiana's is 56%, but Stearns faced stronger opponents (avg rank ~100 vs Stoiana's ~180).
• In their only H2H, Stearns won by 4 games (16-12).
• Stoiana's last15 hard-court games-won percentage is 61%, but sample is only 3 matches against lower-ranked players.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing a tendency for three-setters in recent form and similar clutch stats, a deciding set is a plausible outcome.

• Stoiana's last15 overall deciding-set rate is 40% (6 of 15 matches went to a third set).
• Stearns' last15 overall deciding-set rate is 33% (5 of 15 matches went to a third set).
• Stoiana's career deciding-set win rate is 51%, Stearns' is 48%, indicating close matches when they go deep.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate ace counts, and on hard courts, the total could exceed 5.5, though it's a close call.

• Stoiana averages 2.2 aces per match in last15 overall, 2.7 on hard.
• Stearns averages 2.9 aces per match in last15 overall.
• Combined average is 5.1, but hard courts tend to produce slightly more aces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double-fault average hovers near 5.5, and with both players having moderate second-serve vulnerability, over 5.5 is a marginal lean.

• Stoiana averages 2.6 double faults per match in last15 overall, 2.3 on hard.
• Stearns averages 2.7 double faults per match in last15 overall.
• Combined average is 5.3, but pressure situations could increase errors.