CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Kilian Feldbausch #284Switzerland2Harold Mayot #211France1

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 6-4Tue 28 Jul 2026, 12:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 73 places

Kilian Feldbausch

Switzerland

Feldbausch reached a career-high No. 262 on 13 July 2026. Clay is listed as his preferred surface, and his recent schedule has been heavily clay-based.

Current ranking: #284
Peak ranking: #262 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached a career-high No. 103 on 14 October 2024 and is currently No. 211. Indoor hard is listed as his preferred surface; Liberec is played on red clay.

Current ranking: #211
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Indoor hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 06:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Kilian Feldbausch's superior clay-court form (11-4 last 15) and elite return metrics give him a clear edge over Harold Mayot, who has struggled on clay (2-4).

Expect Feldbausch to win in straight sets, with the first set likely going his way and total games potentially exceeding 21.5.

Context

Feldbausch's last-15 clay record is 11-4 (73.3%), with 59.2% of games won.
- He has won 47.5% of return points and converted 47.7% of break points on clay in this window.
- His recent form includes four straight-set wins in Kitzbühel before a three-set loss to Buse.
Mayot's last-6 clay record is 2-4, with only 44.6% of games won.
- He has converted just 29.5% of break points on clay in this sample.
- His recent clay losses include a 6-2 6-0 defeat to Nedic and a straight-set loss to Dietrich.
Feldbausch's clay return points won (47.5%) is significantly higher than Mayot's (38.5%).
- Mayot wins only 43.4% of second-serve points on clay, and his break-point save rate is 48.7%.
- Feldbausch's break-point conversion (47.7%) suggests he can capitalize on chances.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kilian Feldbausch

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's dominant recent clay form (11-4) and superior return/break metrics give him a clear edge over Mayot, who has struggled on clay (2-4) with poor break point conversion.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kilian Feldbausch

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's strong recent clay first-set record and Mayot's poor clay first-set results suggest value on the favorite, though the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimate.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Kilian Feldbausch 2-0

1.70fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Feldbausch's 8/11 straight-set wins on clay and Mayot's 4/6 straight-set losses on clay support a 2-0 outcome, but the edge is negative.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Feldbausch's dominant recent clay form (11-4) and superior return/break metrics give him a clear edge over Mayot, who has struggled on clay (2-4) with poor break point conversion.
- Feldbausch last15 clay record: 11-4 (73.3%), games won 59.2%
- Mayot last15 clay record: 2-4 (33.3%), games won 44.6%
- Feldbausch return points won on clay: 47.5% vs Mayot 38.5%
- Feldbausch break point conversion on clay: 47.7% vs Mayot 29.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Feldbausch's edge, Mayot's competitiveness in some clay matches and the potential for a tight set could push total games over 21.5.
- Feldbausch last15 clay matches average 19.3 total games
- Mayot last15 clay matches average 20.2 total games
- Both players have had multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often exceed 9.5 games, suggesting a competitive opening set is likely.
- Feldbausch last15 clay: 7 of 15 first sets had 10+ games
- Mayot last15 clay: 4 of 6 first sets had 10+ games
- Both players have competitive first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Feldbausch's high career first-set win conversion and strong recent clay starts suggest he is likely to take the opening set against a clay-struggling Mayot.
- Feldbausch first set win conversion career: 87%
- Mayot first set win conversion career: 89% but recent clay first sets often lost
- Feldbausch last15 clay: won first set in 10 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKilian FeldbauschEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.70
The read
Feldbausch's ability to win in straight sets on clay (8/11) and Mayot's frequent straight-set losses make a 2-0 victory plausible.
- Feldbausch last15 clay: 8 of 11 wins in straight sets
- Mayot last15 clay: lost 4 of 6 matches in straight sets
- Feldbausch's superior return and break point stats on clay
BetBugs · Set BettinglostKilian Feldbausch 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low tiebreak frequency in Feldbausch's recent clay matches and both players' subpar tiebreak records make a tiebreak unlikely.
- Feldbausch career tiebreak win %: 44%
- Mayot career tiebreak win %: 42%
- Feldbausch last15 clay: only 2 tiebreaks in 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's higher ace count (4.3 per match) should push the combined total over 5.5, even with Feldbausch's low ace numbers.
- Mayot last15 overall aces per match: 4.3
- Feldbausch last15 overall aces per match: 0.9
- Mayot clay aces per match: 4.0, Feldbausch clay: 0.9
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average of 5.1 per match suggests a high likelihood of exceeding 4.5 total double faults.
- Mayot last15 double faults per match: 2.9
- Feldbausch last15 double faults per match: 2.2
- Combined average: 5.1 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Kilian Feldbausch

11W 4L

2-6 6-2 6-2#35Ignacio Buse

7-6(2) 6-1#63Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-0 6-4#289Sandro Kopp

6-4 6-2#137Gustavo Heide

6-1 1-6 6-3#58Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(5) 6-3#321Marvin Moeller

6-4 6-3#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-1 6-3#266Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-4#370Ioannis Xilas

6-2 6-2#398Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-2#181Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#661Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-3#574Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-4#387Laurent Lokoli

6-0 4-6 6-4#260Martin Krumich

Harold Mayot

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#556Dylan Dietrich

6-4 6-3#415Mika Brunold

6-4 2-6 6-1#231Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-3#437Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-2 6-0#238Andrej Nedic

6-3 7-6(3)#222Alejandro Moro Canas

6-2 6-2#871Nicolas Moreno De Alboran

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#456Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-1 6-4#294Philip Henning

7-5 6-4#319Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 4-6 6-3#422Semen Pankin

7-6(2) 6-7(8) 6-0#679Yusuke Takahashi

3-6 7-6(3) 6-3#422Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#714Millen Hurrion

6-4 1-6 6-3#139Tomas Barrios Vera

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KFKilian FeldbauschFeldbausch

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Kilian Feldbausch carries the stronger recent form — Harold Mayot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In71.1%+9.2pp61.9%

1st Serve Won66.1%+2.4pp68.5%

2nd Serve Won52.0%+2.9pp49.1%

Aces / Match0.9+3.44.3

Double Faults / Match2.20.7 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.5%+7.9pp39.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.7%+8.6pp39.1%

Break Pts Saved58.5%+3.7pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.6%+4.5pp50.1%

Serve · 3–2

71.1%1st Serve In+9.2pp61.9%

66.1%1st Serve Won+2.4pp68.5%

52.0%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp49.1%

0.9Aces / Match+3.44.3

2.2Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

47.5%Return Pts Won+7.9pp39.6%

Pressure · 2–0

47.7%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp39.1%

58.5%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won+4.5pp50.1%