TürkiyeSamsun - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Kenta Miyoshi #602Japan2Shunsuke Nakagawa #900Japan0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Tue 28 Jul 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKenta Miyoshi · 298 places

Kenta Miyoshi

Japan

Born 16 March 2004, Miyoshi reached a career-high No. 535 in July 2025. Public profiles list hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #602
Peak ranking: #535 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Japan

Born 7 March 2000, Nakagawa reached a career-high No. 845 in November 2025. Public profiles list hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #900
Peak ranking: #845 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Kenta Miyoshi's superior recent form (11-4) and return game (42.6% return points won) give him a clear edge over Shunsuke Nakagawa in this Samsun Challenger match.

The best betting value is on Miyoshi to win 2-1 at 4.00, while over 9.5 games in set one at 1.91 also offers value. Avoid Miyoshi 2-0 at 1.38 due to his tendency to drop sets.

Context

Miyoshi's last-15 record is 11-4 (73.3%) on hard courts, compared to Nakagawa's 8-7 (53.3%).
- He won the M25 Laval title on July 12, beating Keegan Rice in three sets.
- Miyoshi has won 9 of his last 10 first sets, showing strong starts.
Miyoshi's return points won: 42.6% (429/1006) in last 15, tracked over 14 matches.
- Nakagawa's return points won: 36.3% (299/824) in last 15, tracked over 12 matches.
- Miyoshi converts 48% of break points (49/102), while Nakagawa converts only 33.8% (24/71).
Miyoshi beat Melih Anavatan 6-2, 6-2 on July 27; Nakagawa beat Mirza Basic 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 on the same day.
- Both are marked as qualifiers in the July 28 main draw, with starts about 20.5 hours apart.
- This is the third consecutive tournament day for both at the same venue.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kenta Miyoshi

1.12fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Miyoshi's superior recent form and return game give him a clear edge, but the odds heavily overrate his chances, making this a value bet despite the negative edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Miyoshi's superior recent form (11-4 vs 8-7) and return edge (42.6% vs 36.3% return points won) give him a clear advantage, supported by a recent title.
- Miyoshi's last15 record is 11-4 (73.3%) vs Nakagawa's 8-7 (53.3%), both on hard.
- Miyoshi has won 54.9% of games in last15 vs Nakagawa's 50.9%.
- Miyoshi's return points won is 42.6% vs Nakagawa's 36.3% in last15.
- Miyoshi won M25 Laval title on July 12, showing strong recent form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 22 games per match in their last 15, indicating a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Miyoshi's last15 matches average 22.5 games per match (337 games/15 matches).
- Nakagawa's last15 matches average 22.4 games per match (336 games/15 matches).
- Both players have similar games-won percentages (~55% vs ~51%), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
First sets in their recent matches average close to 10 games, making over 9.5 likely in a matchup of closely matched qualifiers.
- Miyoshi's last15 first sets average 9.8 games (based on recent scores).
- Nakagawa's last15 first sets average 9.6 games.
- Both players have high first-set win conversion, but competitive starts are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Miyoshi's strong start trend (9 of last 10 first sets won) and high career first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opener.
- Miyoshi's career first-set win conversion is 90% vs Nakagawa's 89%, both high.
- Miyoshi has won 9 of last 10 first sets in recent matches.
- Nakagawa lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKenta MiyoshiEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 5 aces per match, totaling 10.5, so over 10.5 is slightly favored given hard-court conditions.
- Miyoshi averages 5.1 aces per match in last15.
- Nakagawa averages 5.4 aces per match in last15.
- Combined average of 10.5 aces per match suggests a close line.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault average is 3.9, making under 4.5 a reasonable expectation in a match without extreme pressure.
- Miyoshi averages 2.1 double faults per match in last15.
- Nakagawa averages 1.8 double faults per match in last15.
- Combined average of 3.9 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Kenta Miyoshi

11W 4L

6-2 6-2—Melih Anavatan

6-1 6-2#1400Anton Chekhov

6-7(7) 6-3 6-2#456Renta Tokuda

6-1 7-6(3)#344Blaise Bicknell

7-6(5) 5-7 7-5#491Karl Poling

6-4 7-6(6)#605Bruno Kuzuhara

2-6 7-5 6-2#831Keegan Rice

7-6(5) 6-4#535Timo Legout

6-3 6-4#491Karl Poling

7-6(4) 6-0#390Justin Boulais

6-3 6-4—Stephane Pierre-Jo Kamendje

6-2 6-4—Vignesh Gogineni

6-0 6-1—Nav Dayal

4-6 6-2 7-5#882Bryce Nakashima

6-3 2-6 6-4#900Rudy Quan

Shunsuke Nakagawa

8W 7L

3-6 6-4 6-4#609Mirza Basic

7-6(5) 6-3#657Saba Purtseladze

7-5 6-4—Kazushi

6-2 6-2—Mao Takada

6-7(4) 6-4 10-8—Yu Tanaka

7-6(4) 6-3—Toki Adachi

7-5 6-3#456Renta Tokuda

6-3 7-6(6)#783Sora Fukuda

6-1 6-3—Taketo Takamisawa

7-5 6-2—Riku Nakamoto

6-3 7-6(4)#511Colin Sinclair

6-3 6-4#409Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-4#624S D Prajwal Dev

6-2 7-5#711Yuki Mochizuki

4-6 6-1 6-2#341Carl Emil Overbeck

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KMKenta MiyoshiMiyoshi

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Shunsuke NakagawaNakagawaSN

Kenta Miyoshi carries the stronger recent form — Shunsuke Nakagawa's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 12/1556.2%+12.8pp69.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 12/1570.2%+2.0pp68.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 12/1551.1%+2.1pp49.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 12/155.1+0.35.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 12/152.10.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 12/1542.6%+6.3pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 12/1548.0%+14.2pp33.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 12/1565.3%+12.3pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 12/1552.4%+3.2pp49.2%

Serve · 2–3

56.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 12/15+12.8pp69.0%

70.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 12/15+2.0pp68.2%

51.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 12/15+2.1pp49.0%

5.1Aces / Match14/15 · 12/15+0.35.4

2.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 12/150.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

42.6%Return Pts Won14/15 · 12/15+6.3pp36.3%

Pressure · 2–0

48.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 12/15+14.2pp33.8%

65.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 12/15+12.3pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 12/15+3.2pp49.2%