GermanyBonn - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Guy Den Ouden #195Netherlands0Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida #297Brazil2

Sets 3-6 · 3-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 11:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGuy Den Ouden · 102 places

Guy Den Ouden

Netherlands

Reached a career-high No. 147 in September 2025. His career results are concentrated on clay, which has produced his largest win total.

Current ranking: #195
Peak ranking: #147 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Brazil

Reached a career-high No. 190 in September 2022. Most of his recorded career matches and wins have come on clay.

Current ranking: #297
Peak ranking: #190 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 22:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida's dominant recent clay form (12-3) and superior return metrics make him a slight favorite over Guy Den Ouden, despite Den Ouden's fresh title and H2H win.

The match is expected to be tight, with value on Pucinelli moneyline (2.20), over 21.5 total games, and Pucinelli to win 2-1 (5.00).

Context

Pucinelli beat Johan Nikles 6-3, 6-2 in qualifying on 27 July; this match starts on 28 July at 09:40 UTC.
- His last 15 matches average 123 minutes, suggesting he is accustomed to longer contests, but the quick turnaround is still a disadvantage.
- Den Ouden has had nine days of rest since winning the Bunschoten Challenger on 19 July.
Den Ouden won five straight matches to claim the Bunschoten title, including wins over Tom Gentzsch (rank 186) and Kimmer Coppejans (rank 218).
- He has won 9 of his last 13 clay matches (69%) with a 56.2% game win rate.
- In his last five matches, he won the first set four times and averaged 9.8 games per first set.
In the last 15 clay matches, Pucinelli won 45.8% of return points vs Den Ouden's 43.6%.
- Pucinelli saved 64.3% of break points compared to Den Ouden's 57.6%.
- Pucinelli has won 12 of his last 15 matches overall and on clay, with a 57.9% game win rate.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Pucinelli De Almeida's superior recent clay form (80% win rate, stronger return and break-point saving) gives him a slight edge over Den Ouden, despite Den Ouden's fresh title and H2H win.
- Last 15 overall: Pucinelli De Almeida 12-3 (80% win), Den Ouden 9-6 (60% win).
- Last 15 on clay: Pucinelli De Almeida 12-3, Den Ouden 9-4; Pucinelli De Almeida won 57.9% of games vs Den Ouden's 56.2%.
- Pucinelli De Almeida return points won 45.8% vs Den Ouden 43.6% on clay in last 15; break points saved 64.3% vs 57.6%.
- H2H: Den Ouden won 6-3 3-6 6-4 on clay in July 2025, but current form favors Pucinelli De Almeida.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward higher game totals, with Pucinelli De Almeida's matches averaging over 23 games and the H2H going to 28 games, supporting over 21.5 games.
- Den Ouden's last 15 clay matches averaged 20.6 games per match; Pucinelli De Almeida's averaged 23.7 games per match.
- Combined average games per match in last 15: Den Ouden 22.7, Pucinelli De Almeida 23.7.
- H2H match had 28 games (6-3 3-6 6-4).
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Den Ouden 47.9%, Pucinelli De Almeida 46.1% in last 15), leading to competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players consistently produce set 1 totals around 9-10 games, with recent form showing few lopsided openers, making over 9.5 likely.
- Den Ouden's last 15 clay matches: set 1 averaged 9.8 games; Pucinelli De Almeida's: 9.5 games.
- In last 5 matches, Den Ouden's set 1 games: 10, 8, 10, 10, 9; Pucinelli De Almeida's: 9, 9, 9, 7, 10.
- H2H set 1 had 9 games (6-3).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 2 totals are slightly lower on average but still hover near 9.5, with both players showing competitive second sets in recent matches.
- Den Ouden's last 15 clay matches: set 2 averaged 9.2 games; Pucinelli De Almeida's: 9.7 games.
- In last 5 matches, Den Ouden's set 2 games: 10, 8, 10, 9, 6; Pucinelli De Almeida's: 7, 10, 10, 10, 9.
- H2H set 2 had 9 games (3-6).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pucinelli De Almeida's slightly higher game dominance in recent wins and overall clay performance gives a marginal edge to cover -1.5 games, though the match is expected to be close.
- Pucinelli De Almeida's average game margin in last 15 wins: +4.2 games; Den Ouden's in wins: +3.8 games.
- Pucinelli De Almeida won 57.9% of games in last 15 clay matches; Den Ouden 56.2%.
- Pucinelli De Almeida's last 5 wins: margins of +7, +5, +3, +7, +5; Den Ouden's: +6, +5, +3, +5, +9.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pucinelli De Almeida's higher first-set win rate in recent matches and strong career conversion suggest a slight advantage in set 1, though both are in good early-match form.
- Pucinelli De Almeida won first set in 11 of last 15 matches (73%); Den Ouden won first set in 9 of last 15 (60%).
- Pucinelli De Almeida first-set win conversion career 83% vs Den Ouden 89%.
- Pucinelli De Almeida's last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5; Den Ouden won first set in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nearly half of both players' recent matches go to three sets, and the competitive stats suggest a close contest, making over 2.5 sets a reasonable outcome.
- Den Ouden's last 15: 7 of 15 matches went to 3 sets (47%); Pucinelli De Almeida's: 7 of 15 (47%).
- On clay last 15: Den Ouden 6 of 13 (46%) went to 3 sets; Pucinelli De Almeida 7 of 15 (47%).
- H2H went to 3 sets.
- Both have deciding-set win rates around 50% (Den Ouden 59% career, Pucinelli De Almeida 44% career).
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts on clay, with a combined average of 5.1 in recent matches, making under 5.5 a strong likelihood.
- Den Ouden averages 2.9 aces per match in last 15; Pucinelli De Almeida 2.2.
- On clay last 15: Den Ouden 2.7 aces, Pucinelli De Almeida 2.2.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.1; H2H had 9 aces total (Den Ouden 3, Pucinelli De Almeida 6).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average sits right at 5.6, with Pucinelli De Almeida's higher rate pushing the total slightly over 5.5 in most scenarios.
- Den Ouden averages 2.5 double faults per match in last 15; Pucinelli De Almeida 3.0.
- On clay last 15: Den Ouden 2.6, Pucinelli De Almeida 3.0.
- Combined average double faults: 5.6; H2H had 5 double faults (Den Ouden 4, Pucinelli De Almeida 1).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 12 matches where he was predicted to win, Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida fulfilled that prediction 11 times. The average estimated probability across these matches was 68%, with an expected 8.2 wins, yet he delivered 11, outperforming expectations. The only miss came at home against Johan Alexander Rodriguez Rodriguez, where he lost despite a 72% probability.

Recent evidence for Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#412Johan Nikles

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·72%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#297Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#412Johan Nikles

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

72%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

26 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#295Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#539Louis Wessels

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#295Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#539Louis Wessels

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

62%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

8 Jul·Bogota - Colombia

#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#375Eduardo Ribeiro

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·62%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Bogota - Colombia

#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-0#375Eduardo Ribeiro

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

62%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

7 Jul·Bogota - Colombia

#652Dmitry Popko1-2#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Bogota - Colombia

#652Dmitry Popko1-2#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

62%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

5 Jul·Quito - Ecuador

#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-1#409Hernan Casanova

BetBugsMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win·72%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

Quito - Ecuador

#397Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida2-1#409Hernan Casanova

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida to win

72%probability

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 3-6 6-4Guy Den Ouden#195vMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida#297Jul 15, 2025

1 total meetings

Guy Den Ouden

9W 6L

6-4 4-6 6-0#186Tom Gentzsch

6-2 7-6(3)#218Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 7-6(3)#499Ryan Nijboer

4-6 6-3 6-2#268Hynek Barton

6-3 6-0#441Denis Yevseyev

6-3 6-3#218Kimmer Coppejans

2-6 6-2 6-3#779Federico Coria

6-2 6-2#620Tsung-Hao Huang

6-4 6-4#239Yi Zhou

6-3 5-7 6-2#342Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-2 6-4#97Emilio Nava

6-3 6-7(4) 6-0#258Matej Dodig

6-2 6-1#243Pavel Kotov

6-7(3) 6-3 6-2#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-4 6-4#306Dali Blanch

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

12W 3L

6-3 6-2#412Johan Nikles

6-3 6-4#528Louis Wessels

6-3 7-6(4)#274Juan Pablo Varillas

6-1 6-4#366Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 4-6 7-5#625Dmitry Popko

5-7 6-3 6-2#334Hernan Casanova

6-3 4-6 6-4#642Samuel Heredia

6-1 6-7(4) 6-4#579Alan Magadan

6-2 6-0#691Daniel Antonio Nunez

7-5 6-3#659Johan Alexander Rodriguez

3-6 7-5 6-1#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 4-6 6-2#575Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

7-6(3) 6-2#482Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

6-7(3) 6-3 6-1#311Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

7-5 6-4#659Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GOGuy Den OudenOuden

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Matheus Pucinelli De AlmeidaAlmeidaMA

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida carries the stronger recent form — Guy Den Ouden's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.4%—61.9%

1st Serve Won65.2%+3.1pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won53.7%+1.8pp55.5%

Aces / Match2.9+0.72.2

Double Faults / Match2.50.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.0%+2.8pp45.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.9%+1.8pp46.1%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+8.5pp64.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.8%+2.6pp54.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.4%1st Serve In—61.9%

65.2%1st Serve Won+3.1pp68.3%

53.7%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp55.5%

2.9Aces / Match+0.72.2

2.5Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

43.0%Return Pts Won+2.8pp45.8%

Pressure · 1–1

47.9%Break Pts Converted+1.8pp46.1%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+8.5pp64.3%

Points · 0–1

51.8%Total Pts Won+2.6pp54.4%

Guy Den Ouden

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 2-1

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Guy Den Ouden

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Stat Battle