Guido Ivan Justo #224Argentina22 – 0Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #268France0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Justo's superior recent form on clay, particularly in return points won and break point conversion, gives him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

• Justo has a 9-6 record in last 15 matches on clay, winning 57.4% of games and 53.7% of points.
• Gueymard Wayenburg is 6-9 in last 15 on clay, winning only 47.5% of games and 49.1% of points.
• Justo's return points won (42.6%) significantly outpaces Gueymard Wayenburg's (36.1%) in the recent window.
• Justo holds a 60% win rate in last 15 vs Gueymard Wayenburg's 40%, with stronger break point conversion (52.7% vs 29.9%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Gueymard Wayenburg's ability to hold serve and force tiebreaks makes a longer first set likely, with over 9.5 games occurring in most of his recent matches.

• In Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 matches, 12 first sets had 10 or more games.
• Justo's first sets averaged 9.1 games, but 7 of 15 went over 9.5.
• Gueymard Wayenburg's first serve points won (71.1%) often keeps sets tight, even when he loses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Justo's tendency to start strong, combined with Gueymard Wayenburg's serving inconsistency, makes Justo the favorite to take the opening set.

• Justo won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches, while Gueymard Wayenburg won it in only 6.
• Justo's first set win conversion rate is 91% career, indicating he capitalizes on early leads.
• Gueymard Wayenburg's first serve points won (71.1%) is solid, but his low first serve percentage (58.6%) and high double faults (4.7 per match) create early vulnerability.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Gueymard Wayenburg's persistent double fault issues make over 5.5 total double faults highly probable, even with Justo's clean serving.

• Gueymard Wayenburg averages 4.7 double faults per match in last 15, with 12 of 15 matches having 4 or more.
• Justo averages only 0.5 double faults per match, but combined they exceed 5.5 in 10 of Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 matches.
• Gueymard Wayenburg's low first serve percentage (58.6%) forces more second serves, increasing double fault risk.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Gueymard Wayenburg's high ace output alone often pushes total aces over 6.5, and Justo's occasional aces provide a small buffer.

• Gueymard Wayenburg averages 5.1 aces per match in last 15, with a high of 12 in one match.
• Justo averages only 1.4 aces per match, but combined they exceed 6.5 in 8 of Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 matches.
• On clay, Gueymard Wayenburg's ace rate remains elevated due to his height and power.