United StatesATP WashingtonFinished

Predictions graded

Arthur Fils #23France0Rafael Jodar #25Spain2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Tue 28 Jul 2026, 17:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Fils · 2 places

Arthur Fils

France

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 14 in April 2025. He returned from an eight-month back-injury absence in February 2026, won Barcelona and subsequently recovered from a hip issue before Wimbledon.

Current ranking: #23
Peak ranking: #14 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Rafael Jodar

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 23 by June 2026 after beginning the season at No. 168. He lists hard as his favourite surface and won his first ATP Tour title in Marrakech in April 2026.

Current ranking: #25
Peak ranking: #23
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 22:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Fils and Jodar clash in a tight Washington opener where recent form and surface fit point to a long, competitive match.

Fils’ hard-court struggles and Jodar’s elite return game make the favorite price risky, but the over 22.5 games and Jodar +3.5 handicap offer clear value. Expect a three-set battle with a tiebreak likely.

Context

Fils' last15 hard-court record is 1-1 with a 23.2% return points won rate across only 2 tracked matches.
- His career hard-court win percentage is 21.3% (44 wins in 207 matches), far below his overall 62% career win rate.
- In contrast, his last15 clay record is 9-2 with a 37.2% return points won rate, showing a clear surface split.
Jodar's last15 return points won is 41.3% versus Fils' 35.1%.
- Jodar converts 43.9% of break points compared to Fils' 36.3%.
- Fils' first-serve points won drops from 75.8% overall to 72.6% on hard courts in his last15 window.
Fils' last15: 9 of 15 matches went to three sets (60%).
- Jodar's last15: 10 of 15 matches went to three sets (66.7%).
- Their April 2026 H2H on clay ended 3-6, 6-3, 6-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fils holds a slight edge due to the recent H2H win and superior first-serve performance, but Jodar's stronger return game and better career hard-court record keep this close; surface-fit and recent form are the primary signals.
- Fils won the only H2H meeting 3-6 6-3 6-2 on clay in April 2026, with superior first-serve win rate (80% vs 67%) and return points won (38% vs 32%).
- Fils' last15 overall record is 11-4 (73.3%), with 75.8% first-serve points won and 70.1% break points saved across 15 matches.
- Jodar's last15 overall record is also 11-4 (73.3%), but his return points won (41.3%) and break point conversion (43.9%) are stronger than Fils' (35.1% and 36.3%).
- On hard courts in the last15 window, Fils is 1-1 with 50% record, while Jodar has no hard-court matches in this window; career hard-court win%: Fils 44/207 (21.3%), Jodar 40/122 (32.8%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArthur FilsEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's consistent ability to keep matches close, even in losses, and Fils' tendency for tight contests make a +3.5 handicap for Jodar a strong value; recent form and match-format dynamics support this.
- Jodar's last15 matches: average game differential is +0.4 per match (261 won, 255 lost), with 13 of 15 matches within a 3.5-game margin.
- Fils' last15 matches: average game differential is +1.3 per match (193 won, 166 lost), with 11 of 15 matches within a 3.5-game margin.
- The H2H match had a 7-game differential (Fils won 15 games, Jodar 11), but Jodar's recent competitiveness against top players suggests a closer contest.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRafael Jodar +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players consistently produce first sets with at least 10 games in recent matches, driven by solid serving and return capabilities; recent form and serve/return structure are the main signals.
- Fils' last15 first-set games average 10.1 (151 games / 15 sets), with 10 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
- Jodar's last15 first-set games average 10.7 (160 games / 15 sets), with 11 of 15 first sets having 10+ games.
- In the H2H, the first set had 9 games (3-6), but both players have strong serve stats that can lead to tight sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and the competitive H2H indicate a high likelihood of a three-set or tight two-set match, pushing total games over 22.5; recent form and serve/return dynamics support this.
- Fils' last15 matches average 23.9 games per match (359 games / 15 matches), with 8 of 15 matches exceeding 22.5 games.
- Jodar's last15 matches average 31.4 games per match (471 games / 15 matches), with 12 of 15 matches exceeding 22.5 games.
- The H2H match had 29 games (3-6 6-3 6-2).
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Fils 36.3%, Jodar 43.9%) and moderate hold percentages, suggesting extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not as strong as the first set, both players show a tendency for competitive second sets, especially given their break-point resilience; recent form and serve/return dynamics provide moderate support.
- Fils' last15 second-set games average 9.5 (143 games / 15 sets), with 9 of 15 second sets having 10+ games.
- Jodar's last15 second-set games average 10.3 (155 games / 15 sets), with 10 of 15 second sets having 10+ games.
- The H2H second set had 9 games (6-3), but both players' break-point saving ability (Fils 70.1%, Jodar 65.1%) can extend sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent windows, combined with their competitive H2H, strongly suggests this match will go the distance; recent form and match-format dynamics are the primary signals.
- Fils' last15 matches: 9 of 15 went to three sets (60%).
- Jodar's last15 matches: 10 of 15 went to three sets (66.7%).
- The H2H match went to three sets.
- Both players have high deciding-set win rates (Fils 62%, Jodar 75%), indicating they often push matches to a decider.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fils' strong first-set record in recent matches and high career conversion give him a marginal edge, though Jodar's own first-set prowess makes this a low-confidence call; recent form and H2H context are key.
- Fils' first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, and in the last15 window he won 11 of 15 first sets (73.3%).
- Jodar's first-set win conversion is 94% career, but in the last15 window he won 10 of 15 first sets (66.7%).
- In the H2H, Fils lost the first set 3-6 before winning the next two.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostArthur FilsEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches, driven by solid serving and break-point resilience, makes a tiebreak likely; recent form and serve/return structure are the primary signals.
- Fils' last15 matches: 7 of 15 had at least one tiebreak (46.7%).
- Jodar's last15 matches: 9 of 15 had at least one tiebreak (60%).
- Fils' career tiebreak win% is 61%, Jodar's is 55%.
- Both players have strong serve stats and break-point saving ability, leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hard courts tend to boost ace totals, and both players have shown the ability to serve aces, but limited recent hard-court data for Jodar and small sample for Fils reduce confidence; serve-profile and surface-fit are the key signals.
- Fils averages 3.9 aces per match in last15, but on hard courts he averages 7.0 aces (2 matches).
- Jodar averages 5.3 aces per match in last15, with no hard-court data in this window; career hard-court ace rate is higher.
- Combined, their last15 overall ace averages sum to 9.2 per match, but hard-court conditions typically increase ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W3-6 6-3 6-2Arthur Fils#23vRafael Jodar#25Apr 18, 2026

1 total meetings

Arthur Fils

11W 4L

6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3#42Matteo Berrettini

7-5 6-1 6-3#37Raphael Collignon

4-0 ret.#138Andrea Pellegrino

6-2 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-3 6-4#12Jiri Lehecka

6-3 6-4#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(2) 6-3#100Emilio Nava

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-5#35Ignacio Buse

6-2 7-6(2)#14Andrey Rublev

3-6 6-3 6-2#25Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-4#15Lorenzo Musetti

6-2 6-3#32Brandon Nakashima

4-6 6-4 7-6(7)#49Terence Atmane

6-2 6-2#12Jiri Lehecka

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(6)#24Tommy Paul

Rafael Jodar

11W 4L

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#116Shintaro Mochizuki

3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-3 6-3 7-5#219Felix Gill

7-6(3) 6-1 6-3#2Alexander Zverev

4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 4-6 6-3 6-3#44Alex Michelsen

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#82James Duckworth

6-1 6-0 6-4#93Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(5) 5-7 6-0#21Luciano Darderi

6-1 6-4#16Learner Tien

6-1 4-6 6-3#33Matteo Arnaldi

7-6(4) 6-4#48Nuno Borges

6-2 7-6(0)#1Jannik Sinner

7-5 6-0#68Vit Kopriva

7-6(4) 4-6 6-1#28Joao Fonseca

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AFArthur FilsFils

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Rafael JodarJodarRJ

Arthur Fils carries the stronger recent form — Rafael Jodar's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.9%+1.1pp63.8%

1st Serve Won75.8%+6.9pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won54.4%+0.9pp53.5%

Aces / Match3.9+1.45.3

Double Faults / Match2.11.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+6.2pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.3%+7.6pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved70.1%+5.0pp65.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.7%—52.3%

Serve · 4–1

64.9%1st Serve In+1.1pp63.8%

75.8%1st Serve Won+6.9pp68.9%

54.4%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp53.5%

3.9Aces / Match+1.45.3

2.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+6.2pp41.3%

Pressure · 1–1

36.3%Break Pts Converted+7.6pp43.9%

70.1%Break Pts Saved+5.0pp65.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won—52.3%

Arthur Fils #23France0Rafael Jodar #25Spain2

Player Profiles

Arthur Fils

Rafael Jodar

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Rafael Jodar +1.5

Over 9.5

Over 22.5

Arthur Fils 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils

Rafael Jodar

Stat Battle